Investors are prone to pursue individual factors, but ignore the uncertainties behind them; the more group the market, the more certain the factors, the more conducive to operation and grasp. Recently, with the market shorting model as the element, a lot of relevant points have been analyzed, not only to tell you why it will fall, but also to clarify how to fix it. In particular, the WuXi incident was used as a starting point for analysis, so we will continue to analyze the industry along this line.
Most of the individual market comes from capital and uncertainties
Taking the vaccine sector as an example, we see that the Wantai effect is the most noteworthy, and in the last week of the Spring Festival in 2024, it will also be two daily limits. On December 15, 2023, there will be 2 daily limits in a single week, and it will always be against the trend. Then started a wave of market, but it has not driven the vaccine sector, or even seesaw, in addition, there are two interesting points: first, the management still clarified the HPV9 price time speculated by the outside world, and there is indeed a short time for the real listing, but it doesn't matter, the funds say that you have enough, this is the characteristic of several Wantai trends; Kangtai and others have nothing to do with the HPV vaccine, but have fallen more sharply, while Zhifei and others follow the market and plates, and there is no positive or negative correlation with Wantai. As shown in the chart, even if Wantai is fierce, it finally returned to the industry index.
The individual market has occurred in stages, do you still remember what Kangtai hype relied on at the end of the third quarter of 2023? There are many, and the performance has increased sharply (of course, from the previous low base bath; rabies vaccine on the market; 13-valent pneumonia went to sea...... But in reality, it doesn't make much of a difference to the trend. A wave of rebounds followed by a fall back. What's more interesting than this is Zhifei, who speculated on HPV9 price in October 2023 and endorsed herpes zoster; A lot of factors are always there, but when they go up and down, they can be interpreted differently, which is very interesting.
In fact, we can make a division from this, when some local stocks move alone, in fact, there is not so much correlation with fundamental factors, but a kind of local capital effect, at this time, do not pay too much attention to long-term factors, that is, local band factors. When the individual factors are almost random, no one can say exactly what the reason is, there is also a very clear luck and random factor. This must be admitted, otherwise it is easy to get away with the profits, and then attribute it to your own martial arts, and as a result, it is easy to place a heavy bet next time, and everything will be different. Corresponding to this is the reflection that we see some group factors. For example, the time when the market group is active and the time period for the industry group to adjust, the bigger the factor, the clearer, and the more rules to follow.
Mass markets make it easier to think about certainty
For example, today's new energy, in the past year or so, see this picture, what do you think? Which new low reversal is really bottoming? To be honest, I don't know, but what I can know is that I believed in bottoming before, and those who bet on treasure have died halfway up the mountain. In fact, there is still a new energy logic during this period? In fact, there is still exist, but the real key is that the industry has entered a weak cycle, a large amount of capital because of the industry is too profitable, after expanding production capacity, resulting in oversupply, this cycle can be seen very clearly, even if the company is powerful, can not escape this big cycle.
Including, the previous industry leading stocks, the 2017-2021 beautiful 50 market is a new high, a record high, and after the Spring Festival in 2021, it will fall and continue to hit a new low. What can't escape is the market environment and the factors of the economic cycle, so the shareholders who made money by luck before and did not admit it will be sent back more by strength, why more, because people are always reluctant to admit the facts, and repeatedly want to turn over the book. Therefore, for the local industry of simple individual stocks, it is impossible to find it, and more often, we are the opportunity to play the big cycle.
In many cases, the real reason for the stock price to rise is very different from the reason for making a decision to place an order to buy, and it is clear whether you are buying the industry bull, or your own bull, or catching up with a good era. Mistakenly judging the gift of the cycle as one's own ability is excellent, and often relying on strength A to return to the starting point. In A-shares, any style is just a number, not a Tao, the Tao is only in the cycle, and the only constant is that the market is always changing. Next, from the perspective of 2024, let's give a detailed explanation of the market.