The reason behind the 37% month-on-month decline of pure electric vehicles is thought-provoking

The electric car is a bit of a hassle.

On February 8, the Federation of Passenger Cars released the latest sales data for January 2024. The data shows that compared with the overall auto market, the new energy vehicle market has shown greater sales pressure, especially the pure electric vehicle market. In January 2024, the retail sales volume of the new energy vehicle market was 668,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 29.5%, a much higher than average month-on-month decline. Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles were 376,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 76.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.2%.

What are the reasons behind the sharp decline in pure electric vehicles at the beginning of the year?

There are several factors that play a role. First of all, the sales volume in December overdrafted demand, and secondly, the price recovery of some models and the reduction of activities such as consumption vouchers to promote consumption in local governments were affected by factors such as the rebound.

Under the bad weather of the Spring Festival, the performance of pure electric vehicles has also affected the market reputation and sales of pure electric vehicles, and many consumers are re-evaluating their car needs.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, also said that the downturn in the pure electric market and the low temperature weather in January also have a lot to do with it, and in comparison, the performance of range extension and plug-in hybrid vehicles is relatively good.

The Spring Festival high-speed a blizzard, pure electric battery life in low temperature weather further caused a lot of discussion, in Hubei high-speed jam for more than 30 hours, many tram owners even dare not turn on the air conditioner, many new energy vehicles were towed, there are pure electric car owners only 5 meters away from the charging pile without electricity, the car lying on the nest, fell before dawn.

Some industry insiders speculate that after the blizzard, the sales of pure electric vehicles may be affected, after all, this blizzard has affected many provinces, which will more or less change some consumers' perception of car demand. This time, the sharp decline of pure electric vehicles at the beginning of the year may be somewhat related to the snowstorm and freezing rain factors of the Spring Festival.

Fuel vehicles are "eliminated" several times a year in the mouths of many car company bigwigs and industry insiders, but the data does not lie.

Previously, the Passenger Car Association announced the sales data of automobiles (passenger cars) in December 2023: the sales of sedans in December reached 1.095 million units, of which fuel vehicles finally regained the sales crown. In the camp of oil cars, Sylphy, Corolla, and Lei Ling are known as the "three mothers on the road" due to their slow acceleration, however, in the sales list of fuel cars in 2023, the sales of these three cars have all exceeded the 100,000 mark. Among them, Sylphy topped the sedan list with an astonishing sales of 376109 units.

Judging from the data in January, pure electric vehicles currently seem to be facing greater pressure from the hybrid market. The growth momentum of hybrid vehicles is far outpacing that of pure electric vehicles. Looking at the earlier data, battery demand for pure electric passenger cars will increase by 28% in 2023, while battery demand for plug-in hybrid passenger cars will increase by 121%.

Judging from the current performance, plug-in hybrid continues to strengthen, pure electric trend is weak, and it is expected that the growth of battery installation demand for electric vehicles will continue to be slower than the growth of total vehicle volume.

Therefore, behind this, the performance of pure electric sales is unsatisfactory, and there is also a special demand for the Spring Festival time node - running at high speed.

Young people who have been working outside for a few years, with a certain amount of savings, want to buy a car of their own first, this part of the consumer first of all, the car cost performance requirements are very high, followed by the demand for long-distance running.

In long-distance running, the advantages of oil trucks are very obvious.

The range of many trams has reached 800 kilometers, which can actually support the needs of many consumers for long-distance running. But the problem is that the price of the high-range version will be relatively high, and there are almost no trams with a range of more than 800 kilometers below 200,000.

From this winter's blizzard weather and traffic jams queuing up this winter, the endurance of the tram has been greatly reduced, and the endurance anxiety is still obvious.

However, running at high speed, 100,000 oil trucks abound, and there is no problem of endurance anxiety at all.

In the price range of 10-150,000 yuan, it is the absolute main market of Chinese consumer cars, and in this range, fuel vehicles occupy the absolute majority, accounting for about 68% of the total sales. This is also an important reason why new energy has been developed for so long, but many consumers still think that oil vehicles are stable, durable, and cost-effective. Especially from the end of the year, we see that the oil truck has returned to the leading position.

From the current perception of car brands in rural counties, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and BMW, Mercedes-Benz are the most recognized, and the year-end sales of these brands often rise.

There is still a general lack of awareness of new energy vehicles among rural consumers, and in rural areas, it is generally believed that face-saving cars are still traditional BBA. In recent years, there are not many new energy bosses who can enter the rural market with brand power. The current situation of road conditions and charging piles in rural areas is also difficult to support the explosion of new energy pure electric vehicles in rural areas. Rural immediate car demand, sometimes after walking relatives to pick up relatives, need to use the car at any time, if there is a problem of insufficient power, it is very embarrassing, followed by the rural road conditions are not good, chassis bumps are inevitable, a problem is that the battery of the entire new energy vehicle is basically placed at the bottom of the car, if you accidentally bump and bump, damage the battery, then the basic whole battery has to be replaced, and the oil car does not have this problem.

New energy vehicles are a national strategy, the mainland's oil reserves are limited, and the domestic fuel vehicle market is subject to the technology of engines and gearboxes, and it is not the opponent of Japan and Germany at all. In terms of new energy vehicles, we have achieved a leading position from three electric vehicles to intelligent vehicles, automatic driving and industrial chains.

In 2023, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 9.495 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, and the market share will increase from 25.6% in 2022 to 31.6%. This is already a rare achievement, but we cannot ignore the pain points and shortcomings in the development of new energy vehicles. The problem now is that the disadvantages of battery life and energy replenishment are still obvious, the stability of the battery is insufficient and the homogenization of automotive products is relatively obvious.

Some people in the industry mentioned that in order to engage in innovative gimmicks, some new forces cannot turn off the engine in the car, and the power can only be turned off when they get out of the car and lock the car.

And how to deal with the mileage anxiety of highway traffic jams, how to deal with extreme weather, how to solve the safety problem of battery bumps, how to do a good job in the durability and service life of the car, how to solve the shortcomings of the rapid energy replenishment of rural areas and highways, are all problems that car companies need to seriously solve, so as to occupy a place in the global market market, to get rid of the dependence on oil resources, and to give the domestic automobile industry a chance to overtake in a corner, and get rid of the situation that the automobile industry is controlled by others.

The current decline in pure electric vehicle sales may be a signal released by the market to new energy vehicle products, and 2024 may be a watershed year for new energy vehicle manufacturers. Those that can respond more quickly to market demand and solve core pain points related to users, such as range anxiety and energy shortcoming, may stand out from the competition, while those that continue to ignore the user experience and only pursue appearance design or fancy features may face the risk of obsolescence.

At present, pure electric vehicles are in the bottleneck state of battery life pain points and insufficient safety and stability, car companies need to make great efforts to truly solve range anxiety, and at the same time make the car more practical, new energy vehicles still have many shortcomings in cost performance, battery life, durability and stability, first of all, the high price of the high-endurance version has pushed many consumers to the camp of oil cars.

Many car companies also lack the ability to fight a price war, buy a loss of one, if in this case, lack of ability to solve user pain points, I am afraid that they will be more and more at a disadvantage. In 2024, it is time to bury one's head in the road and make products seriously, and the key to deciding whether to survive this knockout game will be to do a good job in the trust value of users and let more consumers recognize new energy vehicle products.

Author: Wang Xinxi, Senior Reviewer of TMT This article is not reproduced without permission