Text: Ou Chongjing
The first day of the Lunar New Year is really a few joys and a few sorrows, not every family has a very good New Year, for example, Ke Wenzhe's New Year is a bit like Wang Xiaoer, Wang Xiaoer's New Year is not as good as a year.
2014 was Ke Wenzhe's best year, and he only won 3,000 votes by Ding Shouzhong for a second term in the future, of course, Ke Wenzhe at that time was not as good as Ke Wenzhe in the previous four years. Especially in 2014 and 15, Ke Wenzhe was in full swing, and in 2014 and 2018, he benefited from Tsai Ing-wen twice, that is, Tsai Ing-wen ordered Ke Wenzhe to be elected. If Tsai Ing-wen really intends to put the People's Party in Taipei City to absorb Ko Wenzhe's votes, Ko Wenzhe will definitely not be elected. Therefore, it is equivalent to Ke Wenzhe, who was deliberately cultivated by the DPP at that time, but no one expected that the votes that Ke Wenzhe absorbed afterwards were equivalent to absorbing some votes from the DPP.
In this "general election", Ko Wenzhe's votes have become a concentration of a so-called third-party vote, that is, the two basic votes for the DPP and the KMT. And those who voted for Ko Wenzhe will not change, they will not flow back to the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party casually, so it has become a plate with four elections in Taiwan. One is the basic market of the Kuomintang, the second is the basic base of the Democratic Progressive Party, and the third is called the third party or the third party represented by Ke Wenzhe. This means that it is possible that he will not be called Ke Wenzhe in the future, and it will not be the Kuomintang or the DPP anyway. The fourth block is probably the largest, with about 6 million votes, that is, no votes and no statement, and only when it matters to do so will these people come out to choose any of these three sides.
In fact, all the elections in Taiwan since 2,000 years until 2024 have been three jumps, and if you look further back in 1996, there were not only three groups of people, but four groups of people. Four groups of people in '96, then three groups of people in 2,000, only in 2,004 it was really one-on-one, and then it began to be three groups of people in the future. The three groups are actually a habit in Taiwan, but in the past, voting liked to engage in blue-green duels, but now the meaning of blue-green duels is getting shallower and shallow, and the third party is slowly raising its head, but it will take time for the third party to mature.
The current People's Party is obviously not yet at the time of the maturity of the third party, but is represented by Ke Wenzhe, and since 2014, it has slowly grown stronger, and he has become a third party. In other words, the third party is not born because of Ke Wenzhe, but because it is tired of only voting for blue or green, so it is necessary to find a third party, and in the future, the third party will not be called Ke Wenzhe, it is completely possible to call it any name, and it may not be for the People's Party. Therefore, at this moment, the People's Party has temporarily won the relevant votes of a third party, so it is easier for them to have a few seats in the "non-district legislature". However, it is difficult to say whether their local seats will be able to grow, because local seats need to be managed, and there must be so many political talents.
If the village chief in Taiwan does not remember, other relevant political talents, all public opinion representatives, including township citizen representatives. In the 157 townships or county municipalities, there are more than 2,000 township citizen representatives, 908 councillors, 113 "legislators", and more than 3,000 heads and deputy heads of all county and city governments. At least two of these 3,000 people were able to enter the arena to compete, that is, there were about 10,000 of Taiwan's slightly decent political or academic talents. In terms of population, this 10,000 people is about the number of votes, and then as a distribution, it is about 1 in 2,000. In other words, there is only one decent electoral talent out there, and it is not something you can cultivate if you want to train it, nor can it be elected if you want to be elected, and it is still difficult to do so.
After the People's Party has passed this test, everyone will feel that it is actually not easy for him to become a climate. Whether it will be able to continue to grow in the future until it can defeat either the DPP or the KMT is a matter that will be difficult to determine for at least six years. However, it is certain that the growth of the third party is due to the birth of young people and the death of old people, so the new generation does not have the need for political parties, and there is no fixed direction of which party to vote for. For young people, Lai Qingde of the Green Camp is an old uncle, and the KMT's candidates have also appeared on TV for more than 40 years, so of course they are looking for newer brands to invest in. This is the real reason why there is a new force in Taiwan that does not vote for blue or green, but has a third party, and has millions of votes.
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