The new pattern of new forces has taken shape|2023 Car Company Joy and Bad Record

After talking about traditional independent and joint venture manufacturers, it is finally time to set our sights on the new power camp.

According to the narrow definition, the new power brands mainly include Tesla, "Wei Xiaoli", Leap and Huawei and other cross-border car brands, but aside from the identity of the founder, new brands backed by traditional manufacturers such as Zeekr, Deep Blue, Ora, and AVATR have become smaller and smaller in terms of products, sales, and marketing.

However, these brands have been covered in our previous articles, and this article will still follow the definition of "narrow sense" to see the performance of new power brands in the past year.

tesla

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 610,000, a year-on-year increase of 38.15%

Best monthly sales of the year: 77,000 units (December)

Since the introduction of domestic production in 2019, Tesla's annual sales in China have risen to a higher level, with less than 50,000 units in 2019, nearly 150,000 units in 2020, more than 300,000 in 2021, and nearly 450,000 in 2022. By 2023, Tesla's total insured volume will reach 610,000 units, accounting for one-third of its total global sales.

Of course, this is only the sales volume that Tesla sells to the Chinese market, and a large amount of production capacity from the Shanghai factory is also allocated to overseas markets. From the perspective of wholesale sales, Tesla's total scale in China in 2023 will reach nearly 950,000 units, that is, more than half of its total global sales.

The results are impressive, but Tesla's crisis in the Chinese market is slowly emerging. The new power brands that were once added together were not as good as Tesla, and the gap with Tesla has become smaller and smaller. In 2023, the total insurance volume of the three "Wei Xiaoli" will reach 670,000 vehicles, which has surpassed Tesla.

Looking at December alone, the ideal of breaking 50,000 units has been close to two-thirds of Tesla's that month, considering that Tesla's main sales price is below 300,000 yuan, and the ideal is between 30-500,000 yuan, the total sales of models alone, the ideal and Tesla have basically equaled.

For the foreseeable future, the Model 3 and Model Y will continue to be Tesla's main sales force, and the market potential of these two cars has basically peaked, but the pressure from competitors in the same price range is still increasing. In 2024, without further significant price cuts, it will be difficult for Tesla's scale to grow by leaps and bounds.

ideal

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 377,000, a year-on-year increase of 178.86%

Best monthly sales of the year: 51,000 units (December)

In the past few years, the title of "Wei Xiaoli" has been as deeply rooted in the hearts of the people as the BBA of the luxury camp, and before 2022, it is indeed reasonable to rank the ideal last. But since the end of 2022, the Ideal L series has been delivered, and the pattern has been completely turned upside down.

In December 2022, the L8 and L9 cars made the ideal exceed 20,000 units for the first time, and after the L7 joined, it will exceed 30,000 units in June 2023, 40,000 units in October, and further 50,000 units in December, of which L7 will exceed 20,000 units for the first time in a single model.

At this time, Weilai and Xiaopeng have less than 20,000 models in the whole series, and the two brands are added together, and the annual insurance volume is still more than 70,000 vehicles short of ideal.

This is only the most superficial sales comparison, in fact, the ideal average selling price has also greatly surpassed Weilai, and the gap is larger and more reflective of the company's business situation, but also depends on the financial report data.

At present, the latest financial report for the third quarter of 2023 shows that Ideal has a total revenue of 34.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.823 billion, Weilai has a total revenue of 19.067 billion yuan and a net loss of 4.629 billion yuan, and Xpeng has a receivable of 8.53 billion yuan and a net loss of 3.887 billion yuan. Whether it is sales, average selling price, or receivable scale, NIO, Xpeng and Ideal are no longer an echelon.

In 2024, there will be two important models in the Ideal Up and Down, MEGA and L6, which are expected to reach a higher level in terms of sales scale, but the new M7 and M9 models from Huawei are expected to bring a lot of challenges. At present, there are not too many range-extender and hybrid competitors at the same price, and it is worth observing whether they can hold on to it when competition intensifies.

Niulai

In 2023, the insured volume will be 159,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 32.76%

Best monthly sales of the year: 18,800 units (August)

Looking back at the years after NIO's launch, the annual sales growth is also obvious, with 21,000 units in 2019, 43,000 units in 2020, 91,000 units in 2021, and 100,000 units in 2022, reaching 120,000 units. At this time, the scale of NIO, Xpeng, and Ideal is still very close.

By 2023, NIO's total annual sales will reach 159,500 units, although it is no longer comparable with the ideal, but it is still one step faster than Xiaopeng.

ET5 (including ET5T) and the new generation ES6 are the two pillar models of NIO, with 118,000 units on the market for the year, accounting for three-quarters of NIO's total sales, and they are all NIO's entry-level sedan and SUV products, and the sales of the 75kWh entry-level version are absolutely dominant, and the average selling price has indeed decreased significantly compared with previous years.

One of NIO's big moves in 2023 is to unbundle the battery swap service from the car price and adjust the price of the whole system, which lowers the threshold of ET5 to 300,000, and the new generation of ES6 to 340,000, which is still relatively obvious in increasing sales.

In the new year, NIO's most important model is the flagship ET9, but whether it is in terms of expected sales or delivery time, it will basically not bring more help to NIO's sales. Judging from the performance of the past six months, NIO has more than 18,000 vehicles from July to September, but it has fallen to about 15,000 in November and December, and only 17,500 in December.

In this way, NIO's growth forecast for the new year is not optimistic, and it is not a big problem to maintain the scale of 160,000 units in 2024, but it will be difficult to further impact 200,000 units.

NIO's biggest variable in 2024 is that in addition to how to enter the market with the existing second-generation model lineup that has been replaced, it will depend on the second brand Alps.

Xiao-hsien

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 133,500, a year-on-year increase of 10.86%

Best monthly sales of the year: 18,300 units (November)

In 2022, Xpeng's annual sales will exceed 120,000 units, but in 2023, it will only increase to 130,000 units, which is not only much lower than that of Ideal and Weilai, but also almost overtaken by Zero Run and squeezed out of the TOP 3 of new forces.

In fact, since the launch of G6 in the middle of the year, the popularity of the Xiaopeng brand has been much higher than before, coupled with the fact that the price of G9 has been greatly reduced to less than 300,000, and the sales volume has also increased significantly, Xiaopeng has given people the impression that they have come out of the decline and their sales have soared.

However, in addition to the G6 and G9, Xpeng's previous P5, P7 and G3 have all suffered a sharp decline, especially the sales pillar P7, which fell by more than 26% year-on-year. The sales volume of the Xpeng brand in the first half of the year was only a little more than 40,000 units, and if there was no later G6, it is likely to fall back to less than 100,000 units.

Of course, Xpeng's performance in the second half of last year did improve qualitatively, with monthly sales exceeding 18,000 units in November, far exceeding the average before the G6 went on sale.

However, the performance of G6 is also unstable, from September to November last year, the number of insured vehicles exceeded 8,000 units, but in December it fell to 6,500 units, which has been overtaken by the Zhiji LS6 at the same price, indicating that the sales potential of G6 has been basically released, and when market competition increases, sales are still unstable.

Fortunately, Xpeng's first product in the MPV field, the Xpeng X9, has been widely praised, and after the start of mass delivery, the sales volume is worth looking forward to. And this year's Xiaopeng, annual sales of more than 200,000 vehicles is already a high probability event.

Zero Run

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 130,200, a year-on-year increase of 19.62%

Best monthly sales of the year: 18,200 units (November)

Leap's sales in 2022 have reached 109,000 units, and it will exceed 130,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 19.62%, which may not seem very eye-catching, but if you look closely at the sales composition in 2022 and 2023, you will find that Leapmotor has completed a transformation.

In 2022, of the 109,000 units sold by Leapmotor, 61,000 units were contributed by the T03 electric car in the 60,000-80,000 class, and less than 50,000 units were sold in the 15-200,000 class models.

However, in 2023, the sales of the T03 will shrink to 32,000 units, and the C11 will become the pillar of sales, with 75,000 units insured for the whole year, plus the more expensive C01 will sell 23,000 units, and the scale of the two high-priced models will be close to 100,000 units. If the T03 is a transitional product aside, Leapmotor's main model last year actually doubled.

This achievement of Leap is mainly due to the strategy of range extension + pure electric combination, C11 and C01 kingpin versions are range extension power, and unlike Deep Blue, which adopts a similar strategy, the price of Leap range extension and pure electric is basically the same, which makes its pure electric version also maintain a certain sales scale.

Soon after, Leapmotor's new SUV model C10 will be launched, and this car has begun to clearly imitate the ideal "daddy car" family positioning, leaving aside the frameless doors and double wishbone front overhangs on the C11, focusing more on intelligence and daily household use, which is an important strategic transformation.

If priced properly, the C10 may have a higher sales potential than the C11, but whether its launch will have an impact on the C11 is a question that Leapmotor needs to properly solve.

In addition, the new car that Leap will clearly go on the market in 2024 also has a six-seater SUV Leap C16, C11 and C01 based on a new generation of four-leaf clover platform The replacement and facelift is also a predictable rhythm, it can be said that coupled with the exit of gearing up, Leap should not be too bad in 2024.

Huawei (Smart Car)

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 93,000, a year-on-year increase of 32.39%

Best monthly sales of the year: 25,000 units (December)

In terms of annual sales, Huawei's Wenjie series is only 93,000 units, ranking behind Weilai, Xiaopeng, Leap, and Nezha, but in the recent December, AITO reached 24,700 units, far exceeding the above brands. What's more, starting from January this year, the scale of Huawei's smart car series may always maintain or even further expand this advantage.

An important turning point in the Wenjie series in 2023 is the launch of the new M7 on September 12, with a new 5-seat version, while the intelligent driving system has been qualitatively improved, and the price of the whole series has been greatly reduced, which has made the M7, which previously sold only more than 1,000 units per month, exceed 10,000 units in October, and in December 2023, the number of insured units will further exceed 20,000 units.

At the same time, the new model M9 of the world, and Chery's first model S7 have been listed, the two new cars have not been made last year, and it is difficult to say how much increment it can bring to Huawei this year, but on the basis of M7 has become a hit, the average monthly sales of Huawei this year are likely to exceed 30,000 units, and the annual sales scale will directly exceed 300,000 units, which will not be surprising.

For the rise of the Wenjie series, the most nervous is undoubtedly ideal, and from the perspective of the industry, the two brands with range extension as the main driving force may also further stimulate other manufacturers to join this camp.

Nezha car

In 2023, the number of insured vehicles will be 107,000, a year-on-year decrease of 26.99%

Best monthly sales of the year: 11,100 units (August)

As early as 2022, Nezha's annual sales will reach 146,000 units, surpassing Wei Xiaoli in one fell swoop and becoming the sales champion of China's new power camp that year, and has the momentum to shape a new pattern of "Wei Xiaoli". But in 2023, Nezha will become the only manufacturer of mainstream new power brands to decline, falling 26.99% year-on-year, barely holding on to the scale of 100,000 vehicles.

In fact, if you look at the model, you will know that among the 146,000 sales of Nezha in 2022, the low-end car Nezha V, which only costs 6 or 70,000 yuan, accounts for 94,000 units, and the main sales price of Nezha U is not high, basically within 150,000 yuan. Compared with other new forces, the average price of Nezha is much lower.

Last year, the sales of Nezha V and Nezha U both shrank sharply, and even if the two so-called new cars of AYA and X are included, they have also fallen by half compared to 2022. Fortunately, the two high-priced models, Nezha S and Nezha GT, have accumulated a certain scale in 2023, keeping Nezha's annual sales at more than 100,000 units.

On the whole, although Nezha's sales plummeted last year, it has actually made a lot of progress in the high-priced market, but this progress is still too slow compared to other new power brands, and with the intensification of the involution of the market around 100,000 yuan, Nezha will still be a bloody war in 2024.

Text: Ice Heart Preserved Eggs

Figure: Network

Series article review:

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rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root, body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1) 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;---weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, 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.05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.., wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: 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0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;; --weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: 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