Recently, there have been rumors of infighting within Ukraine's high-level leadership, and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny will be dismissed by Zelensky? In which direction will things develop? At the same time, the United States has been exposed to change its strategy: it does not expect Ukraine to regain its territory in 2024, just hold on. Western aid to Ukraine has stalled, and Russia and Ukraine may hold peace talks at the end of the year?
Recently, a piece of news about the Russia-Ukraine conflict has gone viral around the world. According to the Financial Times on January 30, according to four people familiar with the matter, Zelensky proposed a new position to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Zaluzhny, on Monday (January 29) and asked him to resign, but Zaluzhny refused. Zelensky has made it clear to Zaluzhny that he will be removed from the post of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, regardless of whether he takes over the post or not, two of the people familiar with the matter said.
It is worth mentioning that the news was first reported by the Russian media before, and at that time the outside world thought it was a "public opinion war" on the Russian side, and now the Western media have also begun to report it, coupled with the very vague response of the Ukrainian side, it seems to confirm that there is indeed a dirty situation within the Ukrainian high-level. For example, in response to relevant reports, Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president's office, said that he was puzzled why the discussion about Zaluzhny's whereabouts was linked to political competition at the level of "troops, generals and politicians". He also said that the removal of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army is the direct authority of the president, and the commander-in-chief of Ukraine is only one of the president's managers. Judging from the response of the adviser to the Ukrainian president's office, there is indeed a problem at the top of Ukraine, otherwise the Ukrainian side's response to this is not to deliberately weaken the importance of the post of commander-in-chief of Ukraine, but to openly spread rumors.
In fact, the response of the Ukrainian President's Office is indeed fine, and the Ukrainian President certainly has the right to remove the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, but now there is a question, why did Zelensky not seem to go well when he dismissed Zaluzhny? There may be two factors. The first is popular sentiment, and although the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to make any significant progress in repelling Russian forces in the south and east of the country, Zaluzhny remains one of the country's most popular leaders. A poll published by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology last December showed that 88% of Ukrainians supported the supreme general. Zelensky's approval rating, although also very high, is much lower, at 62%, so that Zaluzhny is indeed a bit of a master, which is probably the main reason why Zelensky decided to dismiss him. Second, it is the support of foreign forces, because the current Ukrainian army's defense line on the front line is from the hands of Zaluzhny, the current situation on the front line is also very tight, once there is a temporary change of generals, it is likely to lead to the rupture of the defense line, Western media reported that when the outside world reported that Zelensky planned to lift the news of Zaluzhny, its Western allies "showed a panic".
So at present, things are indeed a bit big, and Zelensky can be regarded as being roasted on the fire, and it is very tricky whether he is dismissed or not. But for Ukraine, the most intractable problem is far more than this, but that Western aid is falling sharply and the US strategy has changed. For example, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Patrick Ryder said on January 30 that the U.S. has no plans to announce new arms supplies to Ukraine with its own military stockpiles due to a lack of congressionally approved funding. The Washington Post quoted a number of U.S. officials on January 26 as revealing that after the setback of Ukraine's counteroffensive launched last summer, the new U.S. 2024 strategy for aiding Ukraine will no longer emphasize regaining territory, but will focus on resisting the new offensive of the Russian army and avoiding it from expanding the occupied area beyond the four eastern states of Ukraine.
Why does the United States want Ukraine to hold on in 2024? This is obviously related to this year's US election. Recently, James Stavridis, a retired admiral of the US Navy and former top military commander of NATO, said: "I think that the window of negotiations may open in front of us near the end of this year, that is, after the presidential election in the United States." Stavridis noted that the conflict would most likely end according to the Korean War script.