Introduction: January 2024 has ended, the average monthly price of eggs is 1.98 yuan / piece, a month-on-month increase of 90.60%, the average monthly price of duck seedlings is 3.27 yuan / feather, a month-on-month increase of 92.40%, the price trend of egg seedlings can be described as unexpected, it is reasonable that the high price will be cautious again at the end of the month, the industry is bullish and bearish, what is the trend of the market outlook?
Data source: Ganglian data
Seedling supply: According to the statistics of Mysteel agricultural product sample enterprises, the average daily number of white feather commercial duck seedlings in January was about 975-10 million birds, an increase of 54.76% month-on-month. Seed production is expected to remain in the range of 9 million to 9.5 million pigeons per day in early February.
Data source: Ganglian data
Eggs: The national average price of eggs this month was 1.98 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.94 yuan/piece from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 90.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.98%. The average price in the first half of the year was in the range of 1.50-1.90 yuan/piece. The average price in the middle of the month is 1.95-2.20 yuan/piece, and the average price in the second half of the year is 2.20-2.60 yuan/piece.
Data source: Ganglian data
Duck seedlings: The national average price of duck seedlings this month was 3.27 yuan/bird, an increase of 1.57 yuan/bird from the average price of the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 92.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.73%. In the first half of the year: the average price of seedlings in the country was 2.56-3.03 yuan/bird, and the average price of seedlings in the middle of the year was 3.13-3.67 yuan/bird. Late then: the average price of seedlings in the country is 3.67-4.20 yuan/feather, the first half of the poultry enterprises began to gradually increase, the actual transaction after the price impact is 0.10-0.20 yuan/feather, but the price limit is insufficient, the second half of the supply reduction, the plan is gradually accelerated, and the seedling price impact is high.
Market outlook: According to Mysteel agricultural product market research, the first half of February corresponds to the middle of March, the division remains stable, the small white strip manufacturers or continue to reduce the amount of stopping, the overall demand side support is still strong, the average price of duck seedlings is expected to be in the range of 3.80-4.20 yuan / feather. In the middle and second half of the year, the number of seedlings has been restored, and the price of seedlings is expected to be 3.40-3.60 yuan/bird under the high price or limited price.
Data source: Ganglian data
Meat duck live poultry: This month, the woolly duck fluctuated operation, with a national average price of 4.28 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg from the average price of the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 5.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.95%. The average price of live poultry was 5.44 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.74 yuan/jin from the average price of the previous month, an increase of 15.66% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 7.19%. The national woolly duck shock operation, the northern market duck source supply this month is basically flat. In the first half of the month, the slaughter was still dominated by the recovery of the guaranteed price contract duck source, the market duck supply, the factory orders were still small, and the temporary contract slaughter increased in the second half of the month. The live poultry in the south rose significantly this month, and the transaction was booming, driven by the increase in the regular demand for live poultry before the holiday and the number of live pigs, and it maintained a stable and rising trend in the short term.
Market outlook: According to the current downstream production capacity and substitutes: the current feed decline trend is obvious, the raw material end is expected to decline in the first quarter, and the cost of slaughtering ducks continues to decline. Slaughtered products are in peak season before the end of February, and purchase demand, especially live poultry sales, may be boosted. It is expected that the fluctuation of hairy ducks in February will be strong, and the average price may be in the range of 4.40-4.50 yuan/jin, and the average price of live poultry may be in the range of 5.78-6.00 yuan/jin.
Data source: Ganglian data
Duck comprehensive: This month's duck comprehensive trend is strong, and the profitability has expanded significantly. In the first half of the year: the comprehensive price of duck is 8450-8600 yuan/ton, the leading production and sales are 85%, and the inventory is maintained at 60-70%. Mid-term: duck comprehensive price of 8500-8700 yuan / ton, leading production and sales of 130%, the overall inventory maintained at 70-80%, the main production of a slight bargaining by-product point upward, the main market, especially the by-product order situation wait-and-see sentiment intensified, in the last round of stocking digestion period, large-scale sauce and marinade enterprises purchase bids in the early stage of the over-falling single product inventory has been prepared, the bid has not changed much. Late then: the comprehensive price of duck is 8550-8700 yuan/ton, the overall inventory is maintained at 70-80%, the price sentiment of each company is still high during the pre-holiday stocking period, the rhythm of the distribution end is accelerated, and the sample enterprises feedback that the raw material stock is sufficient. In the short term, the products will remain high around the fifteenth day of the first month, and the industry is expected to be strong;
As of the end of the year, the current manufacturers have basically stopped production, the inventory pressure is not large, and the shipment of the last stocking period is accelerated. According to the monitoring of sample point data, it is expected that the quotation of large-size white bars in February may be in the range of 8700-9000 yuan/ton, and the quotation of small-size white bars may be in the range of 6700-7000 yuan/ton. The price of segmented comprehensive products may be in the range of 8600-8750 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers will work together to pull up, and the product price rise still needs to continue to pay attention to the production capacity status, inventory situation, price changes and mainstream market shipments of leading enterprises.
Source: MySteel.com