Has the policy shifted?
In just 4 days, the policy on real estate has changed a lot:
January 25th
The HKMA: It is incumbent upon us to vigorously support real estate.
The original text is:
We all know that the real estate industry chain is long and wide-ranging, has an important impact on the national economy, and is closely related to the lives of the people.
According to the previous real estate logic:
In the long term, we look at the population, in the medium term, we look at the land, and in the short term, we look at the finance.
Now the expression of financial policy is more obvious.
January 26th
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Fully give autonomy to urban real estate regulation and control
The original text is:
The relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and all localities should adhere to city-specific policies, precise policies, and one city, and make good use of the policy toolbox. Cities will be given full autonomy in urban real estate regulation and control, and cities can adjust their real estate policies according to local conditions.
The recent property market adjustment shows that the government has carried out a series of relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities. It is worth noting that such policy changes are not just to respond to the immediate demand of the market, but reflect a comprehensive consideration of the current property market conditions and the macroeconomy.
First of all, since the end of August last year, first-tier cities have adopted a series of measures, such as recognising houses without loans, reducing down payments, and adjusting the standards of ordinary houses, etc., to stimulate the activity of the property market. However, these favorable policies have not had a lasting effect, because the property market problems in first-tier cities are deeper, not just the conditions for buying a house.
The reason is said later.
Against this backdrop, the government has gradually realized that more profound reforms are needed to solve the property market problems in first-tier cities. On January 27, Guangzhou announced that it was close to completely canceling the property market purchase restriction policy, which was less than half a year after the last adjustment, showing the government's determination and urgency.
Image source: General Office of Guangzhou Municipal People's Government, Zeping Macro
The government has continued to relax the property market policy in the fine-tuning, maintaining a cautious attitude of taking small steps and brisk steps to prevent market chaos as soon as it is released, while maintaining sensitivity to market feedback.
This policy adjustment came into effect in the "Notice on Further Optimizing the Policies and Measures for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Our City" issued on the official website of the General Office of the People's Government.
The notice mainly covers four aspects, including housing security, supporting the financing needs of real estate projects, optimizing and adjusting purchase restrictions, and strengthening real estate supervision.
Among them, one of the most interesting parts is the lifting of the purchase restriction on units of more than 120 square meters (excluding 120 square meters). This means that buyers can buy a larger area of housing under certain conditions, providing more options to meet the needs of their families.
Another aspect that has attracted much attention is the government's support for the "rent-one-buy-one" and "sell-one-buy-one" policy.
Specifically, if the self-owned housing under the name is used for rent (and filing) or sale (the housing information code is obtained through the stock housing transaction system and listed), the corresponding number of units will be reduced when purchasing the house. This policy aims to encourage the flexible use of housing and promote the liquidity of the market.
In addition, the restrictions on commercial and service properties have also been relaxed, and there is no longer a restriction on the transfer object, which will help promote the activity of the commercial real estate market and provide more opportunities for different entities to participate.
Guangzhou has become the first city among the first-tier cities to partially relax the purchase restrictions in the central urban area.
What is the concept?
With the change in the demand structure of the property market, the demand for improved housing in the market accounts for an increasing proportion.
Guangzhou is no exception, and in the areas where the purchase restriction policy is still being implemented, the proportion of more than 120 square meters has been nearly half, and there is an oversupply, and commercial service properties are the hardest hit areas with high inventory.
The new policy relaxes the restrictions in the purchase restriction area on the demand side, which will help digest the inventory and promote the timely entry of improved demand into the market;
In this way, a virtuous cycle of new housing, second-hand housing, leasing and trading can be realized, and to a certain extent, supply and transaction can be promoted.
When first-tier cities open their doors, people with strength are more willing to replace their houses in areas where resources are concentrated, taking into account the needs of occupation, business, and education.
Guangzhou's relaxation of purchase restrictions or the lifting or further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is an important signal to provide a reference for other cities to adjust their policies.
January 30th
Suzhou: It is confirmed that the restrictions on housing purchase will be completely lifted, and the area and number of units for buying a house will no longer be limited.
Like Guangzhou, Suzhou real estate has undergone several adjustments, from narrowing the scope of purchase restrictions to shortening the social security period, and then relaxing the purchase restriction policy in September last year.
At this time, there is no limit to the purchase of an area of more than 120 square meters, and only three sets can be bought below 120 square meters, and now all of them are released.
However, there is no change in the two-year policy of restricting the sale of new homes for the time being.
On the afternoon of January 30
Shanghai: Optimize the purchase restriction policy, and non-local home buyers can purchase one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District) for social security or individual income tax in Shanghai for 5 consecutive years.
In addition to the above three places, according to incomplete statistics, in September last year alone, Xi'an (outside the Second Ring Road), Wuhan, Wuxi, Xiamen (outside the island), Hefei, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Nanjing, Dalian, Shenyang, Tianjin (core areas (Heping, Hexi, Nankai, Hedong, Hebei, Hongqiao) and other cities announced the cancellation of purchase restrictions;
Recently, Shanghai, Dongguan, Luoyang and other cities have successively introduced new policies for the property market, aiming to guide home buyers' confidence to rebound.
These strong second lines are no longer fortified, the game of grabbing the bench in the big cities has begun, and there will be a new round of great shifts in wealth.
So, what's next for the property market?
It depends on whether the property market in the first-tier cities can catch up with this wave of policies, and whether it will turn?
But for now, it should still be the main support.
Because the biggest policy changes this year are:
First stand and then break, to promote stability.
Before it is erected, it can't be broken, how can it be erected?
So, it's still a backing.
Not only the first line of toothpaste is the bottom, but the three major projects, house tickets, and rental mortgages are all in the bottom.
There is another reason, several debt-ridden provinces have been called off infrastructure construction, and there is a gap, so it is natural to make up for it in real estate.
Fortunately, the first-line property market is looking for compensation, the demand is real, and the risk will not be too great.
Okay, that's all for the recent property market policy~