The future trend of housing prices is like a fog, which makes people unpredictable. For investors, it is natural to expect house prices to continue to rise, as this will undoubtedly increase their wealth. However, for families who genuinely want to buy a home, their feelings are mixed. Before buying a house, they always have hope that the price of housing will be lowered to ease their financial burden. However, once the purchase is complete, they want the price to be strong, and they fear that the value of the property they have worked so hard to buy will be damaged.
Today, housing prices are still high, leaving many families to look forward to it. A house often requires a family to spend decades of savings, and then have to bear a heavy mortgage for two or three decades. According to the statistics of the central bank, real estate has become the most important wealth of urban households in mainland China, and more than seventy percent of family wealth is closely related to real estate.
Indeed, a house is not only a symbol of wealth, but also a warm place to belong in our lives. It gives families a safe place to return home and a haven full of love, and is intimately connected to all aspects of life. Whether it's love, children's education, or medical care and other benefits, the house plays an integral role.
While renting can solve our housing problems, the feeling of being adrift does not give us the deep sense of belonging and security we feel with our families. This is also the reason why people are still trying to buy their own homes even when housing prices are high. Especially for struggling families, the house is their most valuable asset.
Regarding the future trend of housing prices, some professional institutions predict that housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities will continue to rise. Ten years later, it will be 200,000 square meters in first-tier cities and 50,001 square meters in second-tier cities. In bustling cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, housing prices may even exceed 200,000 yuan per square meter.
We should remain cautious in the face of these predictions. After all, the rise and fall of housing prices is about everyone's life and wealth.
In my opinion, in the next 10 years, housing prices in first- and second-tier hotspot cities will rise, but the increase may not be as significant as some institutions predict. As economically developed regions, these cities have huge development potential and continue to attract foreign inflows. According to statistics, the urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population is only 64%, which is still far behind the international urbanization rate of 70% to 80%, indicating that there is still room for improvement in the mainland's urbanization rate in the next 10 years.
However, the increase in house prices will slow down compared to the past. Affected by the property market control policy, the rise in housing prices has slowed down. In cities such as Beijing, Qingdao, Zhengzhou and Tianjin, for example, house prices have basically entered a sideways period since 2017, with relatively little change in house prices over the past four years. As the state continues to increase the regulation of the real estate industry, many speculators are cautious about the trend of housing prices, and not only stop continuing to buy houses and invest, but also begin to sell a large number of properties. This also exposes the problem of excess housing resources in the property market, which has gradually changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
With the vagaries of the property market, the trend of housing prices has also undergone a huge transformation and differentiation. While home prices in first-tier and hotspot cities may continue to rise in the future, they are no longer able to replicate the prosperity of the past. This is due to the fact that policy regulation has formed a serious constraint on property speculators, limiting their access to home purchases, and at the same time, the cost of holding real estate is also increasing, resulting in a gradual decrease in the income from investing in real estate.
Over the next 10 years, the introduction of a property tax seems a foregone conclusion, which will deal a heavy blow to speculators. Against this backdrop, the problem of skyrocketing house prices is expected to ease. Since buyers who just need to buy houses and improve buyers are the dominant force in the market, and housing resources are relatively sufficient, the new and second-hand housing markets are in excess of demand, which helps to avoid the situation of short supply.
The Economic Daily published an article titled "Don't Let High Housing Prices Scare Young Away", emphasizing that young people are the core force of urban development, and innovation is the future of cities. However, the current high housing prices in some cities are forcing young people to leave. It is expected that in the next 10 years, even if the housing prices in first-tier and hot cities continue to rise, it will be difficult to have housing prices in first-tier cities above 200,000 yuan and second-tier cities with prices above 50,000 yuan.
Under the continuous influence of property market control policies, housing prices in many cities have stabilized. In the next 10 years, housing prices in first-tier and hotspot cities are likely to see a large increase. But for those cities where the current housing price is already more than 100,000 yuan, the housing price is already quite high, so the possibility of doubling in the next 10 years is already very small.