Text/Xu Qian
The past year has been an extraordinary year, and the real estate industry has suffered a more severe test. The past year has also been a year of comprehensive reshaping of the real estate industry, with sufficient momentum for real estate policies, and the industry has become clear in removing risks and exploring new development models.
The year 2024 has arrived, under the general tone of the central government's economic work of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down", what kind of development trend will the macroeconomy, real estate and urban renewal go out of?
On January 24, the 2024 China Real Estate Annual Trend Forum - and the 24th China Real Estate Fair jointly sponsored by China Real Estate News, the Organizing Committee of the China Real Estate Fair, and the China Institute of Urban and Regional Governance was held in Beijing. From the perspective of coordinated development of cities and regions, we will study and judge the economic environment in 2024, stimulate innovative thinking, and seek ways for future development.
Li Wenzhong, director of the Social Committee of China Real Estate News, said in his speech to the organizer that the more difficult the moment, the more necessary it is to learn to have insight, see the general trend clearly, and make judgments. At present, it is the first year of the year, and enterprises can make good use of various real estate policies in order to have good development.
"Building a new model of real estate development has become a fundamental strategy to solve the problem of real estate development and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Shan Dawei, general manager of China Real Estate News and chairman of China Real Estate Tongchuang, said.
Gao Peiyong, a member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that at present, the mainland's economic recovery is still at a critical stage, and the primary task facing us is to promote economic recovery. In the current process of economic recovery, the new difficulties and challenges we face are concentrated in confidence and expectations, and in a sense, it can be said that this is a round of demand contraction and supply shocks mainly caused by weakening expectations. Take "stabilizing expectations" as the focus and focus on all areas and the whole process of economic work in 2024.
"At present, the real estate industry needs to accelerate the supply-side structural reform, increase the accuracy, flexibility and effectiveness of supply, and meet the needs of the market and people for personalization, diversification, differentiation, dynamics and even customization. Only in this way can China's real estate industry continue to move forward and create new glories. Zhang Zhanbin, director of the Chinese Modernization Research Center of the Central Party School (National Academy of Administration), said.
Li Xiaojiang, a national engineering survey and design master, an expert of the Central Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Advisory Committee, and the former president of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, pays more attention to the changes of people and the differentiation of people's needs. He pointed out that when talking about high-quality development and high-quality life, we must study the changes in the structure of the Chinese population and people's needs, otherwise it will be an empty word. Whether urbanization is new or not, the key depends on the family, and the urbanization that can place the family is a good urbanization, not the citizenization of identity.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of SDIC Securities, said that the significant expansion of second-hand housing transactions in 2023 does not seem to be entirely speculative, and the correction of housing prices in the second-hand housing market has been relatively close to a reasonable equilibrium level, the affordability of houses, and the removal of housing price bubbles has been relatively completed, which may be quite closely related. While the rate at which the Chinese population will begin to re-concentrate in cities in 2023 is slightly slower than before the pandemic, there is no doubt that this trend will continue to improve in the coming years.
Wei Chenyang, vice president of Tsinghua Institute of Financial Technology and secretary-general of PBC Global Real Estate Finance Forum, said that in the current context of macroeconomic uncertainty, real estate from incremental to stock, and industry risks have not been completely eliminated, it is particularly important to revitalize stock assets. In order to support the steady development of the real estate industry, the construction of a new real estate finance model with public REITs as the core has become a key transformation point in the new development stage of the industry. In the future, public REITs are expected to play a positive role in mitigating risks in the real estate industry and reducing leverage.
In the summit dialogue session, dozens of entrepreneur representatives faced the pain points of the real estate industry in 2023 and talked about the trend outlook for 2024, they were cautious and optimistic.
Xia Jun, deputy secretary of the Party Committee and general manager of China Railway Nord Urban Investment, said that it will be really difficult in 2023, but it is still difficult to persevere, because we must continue to do it in this industry. China Railway Nord will continue to walk side by side with the real estate industry.
Yu Xiufeng, deputy general manager of Gemdale North China and general manager of Beijing branch, said that in 2024, it is necessary to return to the essence of operation, accept changes, embrace changes, and be customer-centric to continue to create value for customers.
"In the face of many uncertainties in the market, enterprises should operate steadily. Road King's strategy is not to blindly increase inventory and develop prudently. At the same time, we also look forward to the improvement of the market environment as soon as possible. Diao Lu, director in charge of Road King Real Estate Group, said.
Qiu Liqin, general manager of Henderson (China) Investment Development Department, said that the real estate industry can only be precipitated and thought about by working hard to "roll". Not only will the real estate industry be "volume" in 2023, but the real estate industry will also be in a state of "volume" in the next 3~5 years. Only in this way can companies see bigger prospects and more hope.
Jia Feng, chairman of Huanai Home Furnishing Group, believes that the current real estate industry is facing some difficulties is not necessarily a bad thing, because the industry can stop, think about development, return to the essence of development, return to the consumption of residents, and enterprises will also achieve sustainable development.
Dai Dawei, chairman of Tiantai Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., said that it is indeed difficult in 2023, as a private enterprise, it is now impossible to increase leverage, nor can it achieve fast turnover, but it has accumulated a large amount of inventory, and it is necessary to ensure delivery, in this case, more than 10,000 houses will be delivered throughout the year, and the way is to "squat down". "Squatting" in 2023 is to continue to sink and accumulate strength in 2024, and I look forward to everyone "standing up" together.
"Immerse yourself in the accumulation and choose the momentum, this is the prediction of the real estate market in 2024. Consumer confidence is still there, and the real estate market is still good in the future. Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Beike Housing and president of Beike Research Institute, said.
"The current demand for real estate is still there, and how to stimulate it is crucial. In the face of changes in the market environment, if you want to survive, you need to evolve, and for the internal enterprise, it is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Yan Guangmao, chairman of Centaline Real Estate Beijing Company, said.
A highlight of the conference was the award of the annual figure of the Chinese real estate industry, aiming to recognize the outstanding entrepreneurs and leaders who have made outstanding contributions to the development of the real estate industry in mainland China in the past year. These leaders are also a ray of light in the difficult situation of real estate, and they are the ones who lead the company to move forward against the wind and frost, and the more difficult it is, the more courageous it is.
The extreme cold is the beginning, and the yang is born. In the new year, people's desire for a good house is the source of the well-being of the real estate industry, and people's pursuit of fairness and justice is the foundation of the order of the society and the real estate industry. We believe that the real estate industry, with a market size of more than 10 trillion yuan, will be able to get back on track and move forward under the impetus of pressure and methods.
