In recent years, as the problem of social rift in the United States has become more serious, the debate about whether the United States will break out into a civil war has become more and more heated. Especially after the Capitol Hill riots on January 6, 2021, Americans' fears of the outbreak of civil war reached a peak. However, even so, the vast majority of people still believe that the United States will not break out into civil war in the short term, after all, the degree of social rift in the United States has not yet developed to that point, and the United States, as a world hegemon, can alleviate internal contradictions by sucking the blood of other countries. But as the time comes to 2024, it seems that the conditions for a civil war in the United States are finally ripe, and the civil war, which once existed only in the analysis of analysts and scholars, seems to be on the horizon.
Texas is making a fuss about independence, but it's not a day or two!
This matter has to start with the Biden administration's immigration policy. We know that the Biden administration takes the so-called "diversity" as one of its governing platforms, advocates the acceptance of illegal immigrants, and also requires that the children of illegal immigrants be given some welfare benefits in terms of school enrollment and job hunting, such as schools must recruit a certain percentage of illegal immigrant children, and companies should recruit a certain percentage of illegal immigrant children.
Texas is unhappy with this policy, because Texas has the longest border with Mexico, and the vast majority of illegal immigrants from Latin America pass through Texas or simply settle in Texas. After these illegal immigrants come to Texas, they often engage in a series of illegal and criminal activities because they cannot find decent jobs and their money has been spent, which seriously undermines the local security environment. As for illegal immigrants who find jobs, because they often ask for a fraction of the salary of legal citizens of the United States, local business owners are more inclined to hire illegal immigrants to work in less skilled industries, which in turn squeezes the employment space of middle- and lower-class American citizens. Coupled with the conservative people in Texas, there are many white supremacists, and they are even more unaccustomed to rampant illegal immigration, so they naturally oppose the Biden administration, which advocates the admission of immigrants.
On the issue of immigration, the attitudes of the two parties in the United States are diametrically opposed!
Entering the end of 2023, Texas' patience with illegal immigration and Biden's immigration policies has reached its limit. According to a number of foreign media reports, last winter, Texas Governor Abbott commanded law enforcement agencies across the state to launch a sweeping sweep against illegal immigrants, arresting more than 100,000 illegal immigrants in less than half a month, and also filing felony charges against 10,000 smugglers and illegal immigration leaders. While the Texas government is searching for illegal immigrants, the Texas government believes that it is not enough to hunt for illegal immigrants in the state, and that border controls must be strengthened to keep illegal immigrants out. So Governor Abbott ordered the Texas National Guard to erect blades, barbed wire, and other fortifications along the U.S.-Mexico border to stop illegal immigration.
Related videos posted on the web.
If the White House can tolerate the arrest and deportation of a large number of illegal immigrants by the Texas government on its territory, then erecting barbed wire and other fortifications at the border is definitely beyond the bottom line of the Biden administration, because this behavior is the same as the policy advocated by former President Trump to build a "border wall" on the U.S.-Mexico border. If Abbott had built the border fortifications, wouldn't that have revived Trump's policies under Biden? So the White House sued Texas in the Supreme Court, accusing the state of Texas of violating federal government orders. After weeks of heated discussions, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the White House and ordered Texas to stop the erection of the barbed wire fence as ordered by the White House, and also to remove the barbed wire fence that had already been erected. Of course, the Texas government did not comply, and it was very creative to send 12,500 illegal immigrants in prison to Washington, D.C., and tens of thousands of illegal immigrants to New York State, the Democratic Party's iron vote. The implication couldn't be more obvious – if the Democrats are so kind to illegal immigrants, then leave them to you.
Screenshot of a video posted on the network about the mobilization of tanks.
The White House was further enraged, and Biden ordered the federalization of Texas' National Guard while sending law enforcement officers into the state to forcibly dismantle the barbed wire. Unexpectedly, the Texas National Guard directly disobeyed the order from the White House, refused to accept federal command, and remained loyal to the state government, expelling federal law enforcement officers who went to the barbed wire fence at the border. Abbott even announced in a high-profile manner that Texas will take out every weapon in the warehouse to resolutely resist any attempt to enter Texas illegally.
A video of the mobilization of tanks posted on the network
At present, some social media accounts claiming to be Texas residents have posted a large number of videos and pictures of the Texas National Guard's M1A1 tanks, M2A2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and other mechanized equipment taking to the streets and blocking traffic. What is even more shocking is that 25 Republican-run states have submitted a joint letter to the White House expressing support for Texas' decision, demanding that the White House withdraw its order to dismantle border fortifications and federalize the Texas National Guard. The nature of the matter has quietly changed by this time, and the core of the dispute has been how to deal with illegal immigrants, but at this point, the heart of the matter has become the state government's disregard for the authority of the federal government and the Supreme Court.
Now Biden is immediately in a dilemma: if the armed forces are sent to forcibly break through the blockade of the Texas National Guard and arrest Governor Abbott and the commander of the Texas National Guard, who disobey the orders of the White House, then the American Civil War will officially break out. But if this is left unchecked, then where is the majesty of the federal government? Will other states be dissatisfied with the federal government's policies in the future? Won't the United States still have to be torn apart by then? In the midst of the entanglement, the Biden administration has actually made a staggering choice -- to impose economic sanctions on Texas. On January 26, local time, the Biden administration announced the suspension of the ban on foreign exports of liquefied natural gas, and Texas' liquefied natural gas production ranks first in the United States. Abbott immediately said on social media that Biden is using trade sanctions to threaten Texas and the United States. The Texas attorney general also said he would work with Abbott to lead the people of Texas "to fight back against the runaway federal government." ”
The desire for independence in Texas was strong.
At present, there are three directions for the development of this matter: First, the US military under the command of the federal government forcibly enters Texas, disarms or destroys the Texas National Guard, and arrests the leadership of the Texas government. Second, the federal government and Texas did not back down from each other, but the federal government did not have the determination to send troops to invade Texas, which eventually led to the independence of Texas and the re-establishment of the Lone Star Republic. Third, the federal government and Texas negotiated a step back to resolve the matter peacefully.
Judging from the current situation, the emergence of a third direction of development is the most likely, because Texas still has hope for Trump, and Abbott has publicly stated that once Trump is elected, the U.S.-Mexico border problem will be solved. After all, the biggest contradiction between Texas and the federal government is the contradiction in the solution to the immigration problem, and if Trump comes to power and adopts a border management policy that severely restricts and cracks down on illegal immigration, then Texas will naturally not need to be independent. But this solution has hidden dangers, and it has a price. The question is that if Trump is not elected, will Texas continue to fight against the federal government?
The United States is already in crisis.
If there were a fraud controversy similar to the 2020 election in this year's election, wouldn't that be more irritating to Texas and pushing Texas to adopt more substantive and independent policies, at the cost of the federal government compromising with the states or weakening the federal government's authority. Since Texas and other red states can send the National Guard to confront federal law enforcement officers of the Biden administration and refuse to accept the Biden administration's orders, if Trump takes office, can California and other blue states refuse to obey the orders of the Republican government to force the White House to compromise?
If the Biden administration wants to seize the initiative to resolve this matter and avoid undermining the authority of the federal government as much as possible, there is really only one way - send troops to attack Texas. Because even if we take a step back and compromise with Texas, it seems to solve the problem now, but it undermines the authority of the federal government, which will eventually lead to the division of the United States. But there is another problem: the Federation's military operations are not necessarily successful.
Related messages have continued to swipe.
Texas has always had a strong tendency towards independence, because other states in the United States have joined the United States in the form of states, and only Texas was an independent sovereign state "Lone Star Republic" before joining the United States, so Texas has stronger separatist tendencies than other states. The Constitution of Texas expressly stipulates that within the territory of Texas, the Constitution of Texas shall prevail over the federal laws of the United States, and in the event of a conflict between the two sides, the laws of Texas shall prevail, and it also expressly stipulates that Texas has the right to secede from the Union. And since 2020, every now and then, Texas has seen politicians call for independence referendums.
American flags and Texas flags
In Texas, many places only fly the Texas flag instead of the American flag, which shows that Texas independence has a broad local popular base. In addition, Texas has the highest number of civilian firearms in the United States, and there are many civilian armed groups composed of retired soldiers, hunters and police officers. Once the federal armed forces attack Texas, they will not only face resistance from the Texas National Guard, but may also face a "people's war" launched by the Texans. Even if the federal armed forces finally pacify Texas, if the war drags on, then the United States may not care about Ukraine and Israel, and then the global hegemony of the United States will collapse. For the United States, this outcome seems to be better than allowing Texas to become independent.
Biden is already in a dilemma.
All in all, now Biden is really being pushed into a corner by the Texas issue, either starting a civil war now, or burying hidden dangers for a future civil war, no matter which situation Biden is unwilling to face, but cannot change. The collapse of the superpower was not as incredible as we thought, with the Soviet Union withdrawing from Afghanistan in February 1989 and dissolving three years later in December 1991. In 2021, the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, and this year happens to be the third year of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Could it be such a coincidence that history is headed? Let time tell us.