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1. China's birth rate has plummeted and has fallen to the level of the middle of the Qing Dynasty
According to the latest data from demographer Huang Wenzheng, the number of newborns in China in 2023 will only be 9.02 million, which has fallen to the level of the middle of the Qing Dynasty. This indicates that China is facing an unprecedented demographic crisis.
According to forecasts, China's fertility rate will continue to decline despite the current fertility policy and social environment. By 2025, China's share of the world's total population will drop sharply from the current 18% to about 3%. This will be the lowest fertility rate ever in China.
Second, the population crisis will seriously affect China's economic and social development
If the fertility rate is allowed to fall sharply, China's future demographic structure will be seriously unbalanced, the aging population will intensify, and the labor supply will be insufficient. This will have far-reaching adverse effects on China's economy:
1. A declining and ageing workforce will constrain economic growth
By 2035, China's elderly population over 60 years old will account for 30% of the total population. Most of these groups are retired and no longer participate in the labor force, and the shortage of labor supply will drag down GDP growth.
2. Pension spending pressure will surge, which may trigger a debt crisis
As the aging population intensifies, China's pension spending will increase significantly. By 2050, 12.8% of GDP needs to be spent on pensions. This could trigger a serious debt crisis.
3. The real estate market and related industries are facing downward pressure
A declining population means fewer home buyers, which, combined with an aging population, leads to an increase in home sales, creating an oversupply situation in the real estate market. This will lead to a recession in the entire real estate market and related industries.
Third, unfair distribution is the root cause of the decline in fertility intention
Through the survey, it is found that the core reason for the decline of China's fertility rate is the serious injustice of the current income distribution, which leads to the lack of confidence and expectations of ordinary people in their future life.
The disproportionate income gap undermines social equity, and young people no longer believe that they can make a good life if they work hard. At the same time, high housing prices and education costs also make many young people afraid to have children, for fear that they will not be able to raise children.
Therefore, in order to increase fertility, we must first address the problem of unequal income distribution, so that ordinary people can see social mobility and regain confidence.
Fourth, the countermeasures: increase income redistribution and establish a fertility support system
In order to alleviate the demographic crisis, China must do two things:
1. Vigorously promote income redistribution to fill the population with confidence and happiness
This will require adjusting the tax system to make high-income earners more financially responsible, while increasing public spending on education, health care, and other public expenditures to increase the sense of achievement for ordinary people. This can rekindle confidence and anticipation of childbearing.
2. Establish a comprehensive fertility support system to directly reduce fertility pressure
This includes formulating a comprehensive maternity policy, increasing maternity allowances and tax breaks, providing maternity leave protection, and vigorously developing childcare institutions to directly reduce the economic pressure on childbirth and encourage childbirth.
Fifth, rebuild confidence in development and let China create new glories at a new historical starting point
Faced with the serious challenge of declining birth rates, China must maintain its strategic focus. As long as we correctly deal with the population issue and adjust the distribution policy, China will still be able to achieve new glories at a new historical starting point.
Let us unite and take positive measures to make China a country with the most optimized population structure and the most perfect social well-being, and create new miracles in the new stage of development!
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