At the time of the incident, the transport plane was carrying a total of 65 captured Ukrainian servicemen, as well as six crew members and three escorts, who were supposed to be transported to Belgorod Oblast for a prisoner exchange with the Russian side, but were attacked on the way. After the accident, Russia immediately believed that Ukraine did it, and the Russian Ministry of Defense also issued a statement, saying that it had monitored the launch of two missiles by the Ukrainian army from the Kharkiv region, but Ukraine's reaction made the incident foggy again.
After receiving accusations from Russia, the Ukrainian side initially admitted that they shot down the plane and declared it a "fruit" of their victory. But when the Russian side announced the personnel on the plane, the Ukrainian side immediately deleted the relevant information and began to deny its responsibility. This shows that the Ukrainian side may not know the specific situation on the plane, but blindly takes credit for itself.
[A Russian military transport plane crashed near Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast, Russia]
However, according to the Russian side, in order to ensure the smooth progress of this prisoner exchange operation, the Russian side has informed Ukraine of the specific flight information in advance, and the Ukrainian side also knows that the plane is carrying its own people. If what the Russian side said is true, then Ukraine's move is deliberately targeting its own compatriots, ignoring the safety of its own citizens, and is no different from "extremists". But Ukraine did not accept this statement, saying that no one had ever informed the Ukrainian side of any information about the transport aircraft.
So there are two questions here, one is whether this matter is the work of Ukraine, and the other is whether Ukraine knew that the plane was carrying Ukrainian prisoners in the first place.
Here we need to pay attention to a detail, that is, after Ukraine learned that the Russian transport plane crashed, it first came forward to claim it, but when it learned that it was its own people who were killed, it quickly deleted the statement. In fact, it can be inferred from this point that Ukraine is most likely unaware. If you know that it is your own people and still do it, Ukraine is going to the goal of framing Russia, how can it come forward to claim that it was its own in the first place.
[Russia and Ukraine successfully exchanged prisoners before]
There is also a possibility that, as Russia said, Ukraine had been informed of the flight information before the prisoner exchange, but according to Andrei, chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, another transport plane carrying 80 Ukrainian prisoners of war was also flying that day. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia deliberately concealed personnel information, so that Ukraine mistakenly believed that the military plane was carrying out the task of transporting ammunition to the Russian army, so as to carry out the strike.
Of course, some people here may ask whether it will be directed and acted by Russia, but from my personal point of view, I don't think it's very likely.
First of all, although Russia and Ukraine are still in a stalemate, the balance of victory has clearly begun to tilt in favor of Russia. Russian President Putin, who was previously interested in peace talks, also changed his tone not long ago, saying that he was not in a hurry to negotiate peace with Ukraine. However, on the Ukrainian side, there are constant reports of discord among generals and lack of assistance, and it plans to pressure China to mediate at the Davos forum. So no matter how you look at it, it is not Russia that is in a hurry now, and naturally there is no need to frame Ukraine.
Moreover, the place where the transport plane crashed was only about 6 kilometers away from its destination, Belgorod Oblast, and it was only one step away from a successful landing. If Russia has no intention of changing prisoners at all, then it would be better not to agree from the beginning, and why should it transport the prisoners to an altitude of 10,000 meters and then kill them, not to mention that it is its own transport plane that is lost. Therefore, from the perspective of comprehensive analysis, Russia's suspicion is actually the smallest.
[Russian President Putin]
In this way, there are two possibilities left, one is that Ukraine made a mistake and harmed its own people, and the other is that a third country wants to stop the process of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine through this move.
And in terms of strength, Ukraine is now really able to do this. Judging from the information given by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attack on the Russian transport plane may be the American Patriot surface-to-air missile system or the German IRIS-T missile, and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Europe, the West has provided Ukraine with a lot of precision-guided weapons, so that Ukraine has the ability to strike long-range. Prior to the crash, Ukraine also claimed to have destroyed an A-50 AWACS aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and damaged an Il-22M air command aircraft, but Russia refused to respond.
The last possibility, that is, the actions of a third country. After all, Western aid is now weak, and the United States has been dragged down by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, so it has no time to take care of Ukraine. And by launching an attack on a Russian transport plane, first of all, it can provoke hatred between Russia and Ukraine, so that the two sides can launch more violent retaliatory actions and continue the war. The second is to destroy the already small trust between Russia and Ukraine by sabotaging the prisoner exchange process.
But this incident also reminded Russian President Putin that the closer he is to victory, the more cautious he must be, because neither Ukraine nor the West can afford to lose this conflict. As the so-called "soldiers, treacherous ways", in the case of the end of the road, as long as the goal can be achieved, what is the point of sacrificing a few prisoners. Western hawkish lawmakers have also said that "assassinating Putin is the best way to end the conflict". The mountain rain is about to come, and the wind is full of buildings, and Putin has to be more careful.