Difficult bottom, what to do?

Since the beginning of the year, the market has fallen one after another, and the point defense battle of the people and shareholders has been fighting from 3,000 points to 2,700 points. Such a low position can still fall so sharply, as an old citizen, he also opened his eyes, and was once again forced to accept the education of Mr. Market in the beating.

At the difficult bottom, the technicals and fundamentals no longer explain the direction of the market, and we may need some "antifragility".

The term "antifragile" comes from the book of the same name by sociologist and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former Wall Street trader, "Antifragility: Benefiting from Uncertainty." This is also another important concept he put forward after the famous "black swan".

"Antifragile" is not exactly the same as the antonym "resilience" for vulnerability, but rather represents the ability to be able to adapt and resilient in the face of volatility, randomness, and risk without being compromised, and even benefiting from challenges and stress.

As individuals in the torrent of the times, we need to be "antifragile". Through continuous learning and thinking, we can better cope with the uncertainty in the macro environment. There are many similarities between life and investing:

They are full of uncertainty and difficult to predict short-term trends, but there is no shortage of "difficult but correct" methods that can improve the long-term winning rate;

Direction is more important than speed, and a few key choices often set the tone for the trajectory of a lifetime, just as a stream flows into a river and will not flow backwards;

It's like a chess game, the short term is unpredictable, but time will erase all the occasional ups and downs, and in the end, it is always those who are as steady as a rock win.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that "antifragile" is also needed in investment.

1►

The first step of "antifragility":

Embrace uncertainty

Due to the human instinct to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, most people are averse to uncertainty, and volatility is an important source of "pain" in investment. As John Maynard Keynes said, "The market will continue to be irrational for longer than you can hold on." This sentence is even more vividly reflected in A-shares.

As an emerging market, A-shares have always been "bumpy", and big ups and downs always go hand in hand. Since 2000, the average amplitude of Wind All A is 68%, and the minimum amplitude is 17%, which is an extremely psychological test for investors.

Taking the historical trend of the "partial stock hybrid fund index" as an example, in addition to this round of decline, it has also experienced 4 obvious sharp pullbacks before:

Data source: Choice, the statistical range of the partial stock hybrid fund index since the base period: 2003.12.31 to 2024.1.16, no investment recommendation

Of course, the index of the mixed equity fund always recovers its losses, and how frightening the slope of the rally is when it falls:

(Source: Choice, 2003.12-2024.1, no investment recommendation)

From God's point of view, after surviving the darkest moments, the partial stock hybrid fund index has indeed risen back, and the opportunities have indeed fallen out, and each round of trough corresponds to a better layout opportunity, but the loss is real money, and few people can overcome the consideration of human nature.

This review process may help us understand two things:

First, "uncertainty" is not as useless as it seems.

Just as life needs to be challenged to become more resilient, and species evolve due to random genetic mutations, uncertainty brought about by market turbulence often breeds "certainty" opportunities in investing. When mid-quality assets are mistakenly killed, discerning investors can also expect to obtain relatively large excess returns in the long run if they can act decisively.

Second, in the context of "antifragility", projections of the future pale in comparison.

History has proven to us that whether it is a black swan raid or the start of a round of decline, it is often sudden and unpredictable. Embracing uncertainty and adapting to changes in the market and environment through continuous adjustment and iteration is the key to becoming antifragile and reaping the benefits of volatility.

2►

 The second step of "antifragility":

Build your own "antifragile" system

Taleb gives three progressive suggestions for this.

Suggestion 1: Reduce the vulnerability of your position

After thorough research, Huabao Securities has summarized four common characteristics of "fragile" portfolios/funds:

One is that it is expensive to buy. If the valuation of the position (PB/PE) is at a historical high, the margin of safety is narrow, and the portfolio may face greater volatility if it exceeds expectations;

The second is poor texture. The market is a voting machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term, and the long-term return comes from the profit and development of the enterprise. However, if the profitability (ROE) and growth (profit growth) of the underlying position lag behind the peers for a long time, it is easy to cause the destruction of value.

The third is the single-bet track. If the risk of the portfolio is exposed to a single or a few sectors on a large scale, the portfolio may also experience a large drawdown once the industry it is betting on shows more than expected volatility.

Fourth, excessive participation in huddles. There are often bubbles in crowded places, and excessive participation in "huddles" is also a risk. The direction that the market is optimistic about is actually more likely to occur under the stampede of the herd effect.

(Source: Huabao Securities, "Looking for Active Equity Funds with "Anti-Fragile" Capabilities", release time: 2022/10/24, no investment recommendation)

(Source: Huabao Securities, "Looking for Active Equity Funds with "Anti-Fragile" Capabilities", release time: 2022/10/24, no investment recommendation)

Investors may wish to fully consider these four factors in practice and avoid them.

Suggestion 2: Barbell strategy

The characteristics of the barbell are that the two ends are heavy and the middle is light, and the proper balance of the two ends is also required.

If a person has a useful skill or a stable but low-paying job, he or she may choose to balance his energies while starting a career that is expected to be rewarding but not fruitful in the short term. Even if you can't succeed, it won't shake the foundation of your life, and if you succeed, you may break through and go to the next level.

In investment, the barbell strategy refers to abandoning the medium-risk and medium-return assets in the middle part and allocating them to heavier ends: one is high-risk and high-return, and the other is low-risk and low-return, so as to achieve a balance of returns.

The reason behind this is that the capital market has always been volatile, and short-term ups and downs are difficult to predict, so assets with medium return expectations may not correspond to medium risk in the systemic risk, making it difficult to achieve the established investment goals.

When it comes to specific investment strategies, you can use a high position (e.g., 90%) to allocate low-risk targets with high certainty, while at the same time bet on high-elasticity and high-odds targets with a low position (e.g., 10%).

Common varieties with less volatility risk include money market funds, interbank certificate of deposit funds, and short-term bond funds;

Common high-volatility and high-elasticity varieties include small- and mid-cap broad-based index funds and some popular equity funds.

The most extreme result is that most of the high-risk 10% face losses, but once they choose the right one, the upside is larger. That is, to use predictable losses to gain high elasticity to achieve the goal of medium returns, and to use asymmetry to improve the anti-fragility of investments, of course, in the process to consider the impact of winning rates.

It can be seen that the holdings of "fixed income +" funds naturally have a barbell structure - most positions are allocated to relatively stable fixed income assets, and a small number of positions are allocated to other assets with large fluctuations and high odds, so they are expected to bring obvious "anti-fragile" characteristics.

Suggestion 3: Rational and proactive

First of all, try to overcome the "habitual thinking" in a downside environment.

In the book "The Simplest Things to Invest", it is written: "From the perspective of the success rate of the selection, the correct rate of dead longs and dead shorts is 50% in the long run, but the correct rate of most people's timing is less than 50%, because people are prone to be optimistic after the surge and pessimistic after the crash, and the result is often a high position at the high point and a low position at the low point." ”

Investors are always overly optimistic when the market is overheated, thinking that the upward trend will continue, and buying at a high level, and are extremely pessimistic when the market is freezing, believing that the next bottom will not be seen, and do not hesitate to cut the meat before dawn.

"Linear extrapolation" of market trends is human, but in many cases, our perception of risk is prone to cognitive biases, but it may not be true. The sign of a sharp downside risk is that the market is overheated, the stock price is seriously deviating from value, and there is really a bubble, and it is by no means the pessimistic rhetoric about the "bear market" and "new low" that you see in the comment section.

Secondly, on the basis of following the barbell strategy, you might as well take the initiative rationally and proactively.

For the same bull base, buying at 5,000 points in the market and buying at 2,700 points, the experience and return of holding are bound to be very different. The enlightenment for us is that the high valuation avoids trial and error, and the lively places are few, and the emotional trough is rational, ignoring the noise, and believing in the simplest law of value.

When signals from the bottom of the market start to appear, remember not to "anchor" existing book losses that can easily inspire fear. After all, whether the layout of the bottom of the market can be profitable in the long future naturally has nothing to do with TA. Sometimes offense is also the best defense, you might as well take a batch of buying or regular investment to layout, which can not only reduce the risk of bottom-buying mistakes, but also accumulate chips for the future market.

Finally, I would like to say a few words from my heart. Under the coercion of the tide of the times, the fluctuations of the macro narrative have left traces on everyone, and some pessimistic voices have been bred under the long bottom and the great changes unseen in a century.

In fact, every time the market bottomed in the past, the market produced such and such medium- and long-term pessimism that felt completely impossible to start at the time, and extreme market conditions always breed extreme macro narratives.

But to be fair, the current extreme pessimism is actually the same as the early 21-year idea that "core assets will always rise", and it is a linear extrapolation based on the current sentiment.

While people are making arguments for the "golden decade", the market is not far from peaking;

While people are looking for reasons for long-term pessimism, the market is already in the bottom zone.

Whether it's the economy or investment, the cycle will always be the last. How the ups and downs of the cycle and the hardships on the way destroy a person's will will reward and sublimate those winners who persevere to the end.

Understanding the cycle and getting through it may be the proper meaning of "antifragile".

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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 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body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919; background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}