Earlier, the Russian deputy prime minister had publicly stated that China and Russia had reached an agreement in principle on the new energy pipeline project, and the two sides were deliberating economic and commercial terms including price, payment methods, and delivery methods.
The lifeline of new energy in China and Russia
China and Russia have always attached great importance to the new energy lifeline - Power of Siberia 2, this pipeline to the Yamal Peninsula of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region of Russia as a starting point, from the northeast of the mainland to enter the country, connected to the domestic energy pipeline, and finally arrived in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions, this pipeline is the power of Siberia 1 pipeline opened, by Russia in 2020 for the first time proposed a Sino-Russian cooperation new energy channel, the Yamal Peninsula is a large peninsula in the northwest of the West Siberian Plain of Russia, located in the edge of the Arctic Ocean, east of the Ob Bay, west of the Baidarac Bay, north of the Kara Sea, its area of about 122,000 square kilometersThe climate here is harsh, the permafrost is widespread, and it is rarely inhabited, but it contains rich oil and gas resources, with proven natural gas reserves of up to 10.4 trillion cubic meters and oil reserves of more than 1.6 billion barrels.
In order to meet China's massive energy demand, Russia directly set the starting point of the new energy pipeline on the Yamal Peninsula, which is rich in oil and gas resources, according to the original plan, the pipeline should enter directly from the Altai region, the junction of China and Russia, and reach the eastern part of the mainland with a low degree of natural gasification, and the pipeline design annual gas transmission capacity will reach 50 billion cubic meters, which can account for almost 13% of the mainland's total natural gas imports in 2023 But then Russia insisted that the pipeline must enter the Russian-Mongolian border from the southern side of Lake Baikal and then reach the mainland, that is, this cooperation project between China and Russia added a third Mongolia.
Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia a landlocked country, with an area of 1,566,500 square kilometers, is the second largest landlocked country in the world, but there are only two bordering countries between China and Russia, due to this special geographical relationship, China, Russia and Mongolia will inevitably carry out a lot of regional cooperation projects, such as the China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor under the main framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Silk Road Economic Belt advocated by the mainland, Russia's Trans-Eurasian Railway, and Mongolia's steppe road initiative to dock, launched a deep cross-regional exchanges, in the future, this corridor will also become an important bridge between China, Russia and Mongolia to further connect world trade.
That is to say, between China, Russia and Mongolia, there is no lack of interconnected exchanges and cooperation in essence, but Russia suddenly proposed to pass the Siberian Power 2 pipeline through Mongolia, in our opinion, it is really unnecessary, and China and Russia have not reached a consensus on whether the new pipeline will pass through Mongolia, which is an important reason for the slow progress of this pipeline, but at the end of last year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak revealed that China and Russia have reached an agreement in principle on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, and are considering commercial terms, and Gazprom is discussing price issues with PetroChina。 After only a month of negotiating prices between China and Russia, Mongolia could not sit still.
According to sources, the Mongolian prime minister suddenly made a public announcement a few days ago that he was trying to invite China and Russia to arrange a trilateral summit, and in particular, he mentioned that Sino-Mongolian relations are at the "highest level" and that the two sides are also actively developing a comprehensive strategic partnership. Many people have noticed that Mongolia has not been so active in cooperating with China and Russia before, and even last year, it tried to match up with the United States, Japan and South Korea to implement the plan of the so-called third neighbor across China and Russia, but now Mongolia's attitude is slightly eager.
What is Mongolia worried about
Mongolia proposed to hold a trilateral summit between China, Russia and Mongolia, and the project cooperation to be talked about is mainly focused on two aspects, one is transportation, the other is energy, of which energy refers to the power of Siberia No. 2 natural gas pipeline, as long as the pipeline passes through Mongolia, it must consider transit costs, post-maintenance and other issues, so as long as Mongolia is still involved in this project, China and Russia will inevitably be unable to bypass Mongolia in carrying out related matters related to the pipeline, but surprisingly, the price of the Sino-Russian discussion, but did not bring Mongolia, therefore, the relevant people believe that Mongolia is so eager to carry out a summit with China and Russia, I'm afraid it's just about worrying about this new energy pipeline.
However, last year, when the Russian side discussed the natural gas cooperation project in front of the Chinese high-level officials, it specifically mentioned Mongolia, and even made a commitment in front of Mongolia to meet the country's natural gas needs.
On this issue, although the mainland has some hesitations and concerns, it is also open-minded. Therefore, Mongolia's concern is not that the pipeline will no longer transit through Mongolia, but that China and Russia will negotiate with Mongolia after negotiating the price, which will make Mongolia feel that it is at a disadvantage in the cooperation project of the three countries, and will face a more passive situation in the future, especially after China and Russia negotiate the price of natural gas, Mongolia will not have much room to speak if it wants to buy natural gas from Russia, and even the toll it wants to collect from it cannot be decided.
In addition, the pipeline passes through Mongolia, and the section of the line in Mongolia obviously needs Mongolia to bear its own construction costs, but Mongolia itself is not rich, and if you want to build an energy pipeline, you need to rely on the technical and financial loan support of China and Russia, but once China and Russia negotiate all the relevant prices, Mongolia will become very difficult to borrow low-interest loans. In the eyes of many, Mongolia's concerns are clearly the result of a lack of trust in China and Russia. For China and Russia, what has always been advocated is the concept of mutual benefit and win-win and equal exchanges, so even if China and Russia really negotiate the price in advance, if Mongolia puts forward other demands and opinions in the future, China and Russia will naturally accept it with an open mind.
Of course, Mongolia's concerns are understandable, but it also needs to show enough sincerity. Just like Mongolia's cooperation with China and Russia in transportation, it hopes to be able to build railways, Dry ports and other connections with China and Russia, although nominally to strengthen regional cooperation with China and Russia more effectively, but Mongolia also has other ideas, such as through the dry port and other transportation hubs between China and Russia, and the United States, Japan and South Korea to achieve trade, last year Mongolia tried to lease the mainland Tianjin Port land, with Japan and South Korea to reach trade exchanges, and even signed a rare earth copper mine and other cooperation agreements with the United States, that is to say, Mongolia is far from being satisfied with only cooperation with China and Russia.
However, Mongolia has a special geographical location, and whether the strategic decision it has made is in line with its own positioning is still a question that the country should consider, and if Mongolia still cannot show sincerity, China and Russia will need to reconsider the issue of no longer transiting Mongolia.