In the triangle of Russia, North Korea and Iran, the most stable is the Russian-Iranian relationship. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia-Iran relations were very good, and the two sides had common topics on issues such as anti-American, Syria, and Iraq. After the outbreak of the conflict, Iran was also the first country to provide weapons assistance to Russia, including missiles, artillery shells and drones. Although there is some friction between the two on the issue of the three islands in the Persian Gulf, it is not a big problem.
As for Iran-North Korea relations, they have been strengthening since the 2017 Iran nuclear deal was torn up by the Trump administration. Over the past few years, Iran and the DPRK have cooperated in the production of ballistic missiles, and at the same time in the economy. Now that Iran's conservatives are in power, relations between the two countries are bound to be further strengthened.
The most recent development has been in Russian-DPRK relations. Against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to the DPRK, tensions are growing on the peninsula. But this is exactly Putin's goal, and it is also a big move for Putin, and it also reflects the survival of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un. However, this will undoubtedly have an irreversible impact on the situation in Northeast Asia, and China will not be left alone.
(Putin meets Kim Jong-un)
In the gap between China and North Korea, Russia and North Korea have become increasingly close. North Korea has conducted three successive nuclear explosion tests, with an increasing yield, and has even weaponized plutonium. North Korea is a country with relatively few resources, and in addition to the possible support of Iran, Russia's influence behind it is also worth pondering.
Then, in 2019, Putin and Kim Jong-un had a historic meeting, and in just one year, three successive improvements of North Korea's "Polaris" series of submarine-launched missiles appeared. And even hypersonic missiles have been successfully developed, and before 2020, only China and Russia have the technology for hypersonic missiles. Even the technology of hypersonic missiles, the United States often fails, but the DPRK has succeeded in developing it under the blockade of the West.
And just last year, North Korea's reconnaissance satellite failed to launch the first two times, but Kim Jong-un chose to meet with Putin at the Vostok Cosmodrome in Russia's Amur Oblast to visit the "Soyuz-2" rocket launcher. In just two months, North Korea announced the successful launch of a reconnaissance satellite, and Kim Jong-un observed it on the spot.
(North Korea military parade)
In July last year, the DPRK held a commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the armistice of the Korean War in the capital Pyongyang, and the DPRK invited a Chinese and Russian delegation to participate. But what the world has noticed is that Kim Jong-un has shown Shoigu only a variety of weapons, including the Hwasong-11 missile, which resembles the Iskander, and even the Nova-9 drone, which is almost the same as the American MQ-9 Reaper drone. As well as the North Korean "Nova-4" type, which is almost exactly the same as the American RQ-4 strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft "Global Hawk". Obviously, these weapons made Shoigu's eyes shine, and what North Korea wants to see is this reaction from the Russian side.
The core reason why China did not visit the DPRK's weapons depot is that we are unwilling to escalate the situation, let alone participate in arms support for the DPRK. It is a manifestation of responsibility.
And it should be noted that the high-level Chinese and Russian delegations arrived at almost the same time, but Kim Jong-un received Shoigu at the first time and personally hosted a banquet. The next day, accompanied by Shoigu, the Chinese delegation was received.
(Kim Jong-un, Shoigu and Chinese representatives visit the parade)
So to understand these events, we have to look at the background of North Korea, affected by the epidemic, North Korea has been closed for more than three years, all kinds of strategic materials and basic support materials have been challenged, and even the impact of the spring drought and summer heavy rains in recent years has also hit North Korea's agricultural supplies. In addition, North Korea has been sanctioned by the West for many years, and it is difficult for the materials needed to enter North Korea, and there is hardly any international assistance. There is a big gap in materials, food and energy.
At the same time, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is a pro-American faction, and under his leadership, South Korea resumed large-scale military exercises with the United States, and the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea was basically formed.
And U.S. President Joe Biden's strategy toward North Korea is very different from that of former U.S. President Trump, before Biden took office, North Korea launched missiles or conducted nuclear explosion tests several times in order to seek an opportunity to negotiate with the United States, and Trump did give it. Why do you say that, you can probably see it by summarizing the development process of North Korea in recent years. First, North Korea has made a provocative posture to win negotiations, turn to dialogue and compromise, and then receive aid. The aid received was used to redevelop the armed forces and to make provocative gestures to win negotiations. Cycle.
But Biden did not give North Korea this opportunity, North Korea provoked, and the United States and South Korea responded with military exercises. The situation has intensified, and Kim Jong-un has not been able to get the negotiation situation he wanted.
(Trump meets Kim Jong-un)
As a matter of fact, there are two general directions, one is to ensure that the regime of the DPRK is not overthrown, and the other is to seek the development of the DPRK so that the DPRK can be further recognized by the international community.
However, Kim Jong-un knows that his demands cannot be achieved by making friends with China and Russia. It still depends on the United States. Therefore, North Korea's repeated provocations are not for South Korea, Japan, and neighboring countries, but for the United States.
But there is still a situation in which the United States insists on not changing its policy toward North Korea, and now that is clearly happening, Biden can be described as very tough on this point. Kim Jong-un's response strategy is to pull the surrounding powers into the water so that the international community can better hear North Korea's demands. And North Korea's best opportunity to participate in international affairs is the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
North Korea not only made a high-profile solidarity with Russia during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but was even the first country in the world to support Russia and recognize the independence of Ukraine and the east. Even the wreckage of a North Korean missile on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine was recently discovered. Undoubtedly, participating in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is one of the best means for North Korea to make a name for itself in the international community, and then force Biden to give North Korea a chance for dialogue and negotiation.
Of course, North Korea supports Russia, and there are more affordable benefits, because North Korea cannot help Russia for free. In this case, the DPRK can not only earn money from the sale of arms in exchange for Russian materials and energy, but also obtain further technical support from Russia, develop its own military strength, and obtain greater bargaining chips for future negotiations. This is exactly how Kim Jong-un survives in the cracks of international conflicts.
(North Korean-made missiles appeared on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield discovered by the Ukrainian army)
As Russia and the DPRK get closer and closer, it is necessary to understand it from another angle. Russia's interests are not in Northeast Asia, and Russia is now cooperating more and more closely with China, which is a helpless move for Russia to be blocked by the West. In fact, Russia's core interests are still in Europe. And Russia is playing a spoiler role in Northeast Asia. After all, the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula can contain the United States to a certain extent, and Russia does not want to bear international responsibility for North Korea's actions.
Of course, the Russian side also understands that China is responsible for the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
The events in Crimea were the trigger for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when the signs of a large-scale outbreak of the conflict were already emerging, and after Russia's special military operation in Ukraine in 2022, Russia began to seek to create a front against the United States. But the only countries that explicitly support Russia are Iran and North Korea, which are anti-American tough guys in the Middle East, while North Korea has its own interests. But after all, the strength of the two is limited, and Putin wants to win over China, India and Vietnam the most. Needless to say, India is also a left-and-right player between Russia and the United States. Vietnam, on the other hand, has always pursued a policy of non-alignment and does not participate in any military alliances.
Then only China remains, but China cannot explicitly support Putin's actions against Ukraine, and can indirectly help Russia relieve the pressure of the West, which is already the best China can do to support Russia against the United States.
(U.S. aircraft carriers gather around China)
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was originally just a geopolitical conflict in Europe, but Russia's game with North Korea placed a branch of the dispute in Northeast Asia, that is, near China, so the closer Putin and Kim Jong-un go, the closer the nominal "DPRK-Russia alliance" will be to reality. Whether China admits it or not, the United States is bound to regard China, North Korea and Russia as the same camp, which is not only a reason for the United States to suppress China, but also a useful weapon to contain China's rise. In this situation, the United States has already pressed heavily on Northeast Asia, and there will be greater uncertainties in the future.
Regardless of whether the situation is chaotic or war, it is a great threat to China's peaceful development. Don't look at the current Putin and Kim Jong-un seem to be daring, but whether they dare to act has to be marked with a question mark, because the final risk and pressure are also borne on China to a certain extent. Therefore, we must also be vigilant at all times to avoid further escalation of the situation between the DPRK and Russia.