After the RRR cut, A-shares regained 2900, what about the property market?

"Some policy packages need to continue to come out, this is a series of combination punches, if you don't keep up, there is little point in cutting the RRR. ”

Text / Ba Jiuling

昨天，沪指重回2900点。

On January 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points, refreshing a new low since April 2020.

Among them, the head of the Chinese word led the rise, especially PetroChina since July 2015 for the first time there was a "spectacle" of the limit, with a market value of 1.46 trillion yuan, although PetroChina has risen 55% last year, but this time the signal of the limit is stronger.

As some netizens ridiculed, even PetroChina, which once fell to 4 yuan, is rising, which is like Qin Guoshang's "Ximu Lixin", in order to ignite confidence in the stock market.

Behind the rebound of the stock market, an intuitive positive is the blockbuster policy announced the day before yesterday: Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, personally announced that the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points on February 5, providing long-term liquidity to the market by about 1 trillion yuan.

"Rushing to cut the RRR before the Spring Festival is an unexpected stimulus. In the exchange with many relevant experts and scholars, they said so.

In contrast, another high-profile "big market", the property market, is much "quieter". Liu Deke, editor-in-chief of Adecco Real Estate Channel, believes that "the RRR cut is a small benefit to the property market, but it is difficult for money to flow into real estate".

Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, assessed that the RRR cut objectively makes the loan amount more sufficient, just like the credit card limit of ordinary people, and the signal significance is greater than the actual significance.

Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, also said that the effect of the RRR cut still needs to be realized through the circulation of deposits and loans of commercial banks, and the willingness of commercial banks to lend to the real estate industry, especially real estate enterprises, is still weak.

Therefore, for the current real estate industry, what may be more needed is to make targeted efforts.

For example: lower mortgage interest rates.

On January 22, the first LPR (loan prime rate) for 2024 was released, with a 1-year LPR of 3.45% and a 5-year LPR of 4.2%, which has not changed for nearly half a year.

Liu Deke believes that from a vertical point of view, the current mortgage interest rate of 4.2% is indeed the lowest in history, and from a horizontal point of view, the mortgage is still the most expensive loan variety, which has largely inhibited the enthusiasm for buying a house.

In this regard, the minibus checked that the annualized loan interest rate of a certain product of a commercial bank was as low as about 2.97%, and the operating loan was concentrated between 3.3% and 3.6%.

Or in order to respond to the needs of the market, on the day after the announcement of the RRR cut, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Management of Operating Property Loans", which is regarded as a major "ruthless work" since the current round of real estate difficulties: in the past, the financial support policy emphasized the use of special funds, but this time it was actually allowed to repay old debts with new loans, which greatly revitalized the flexibility of real estate enterprises.

In addition to "hard work", "confidence" continues to be injected.

On the afternoon of January 25, Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said when introducing the high-quality economic and social development of financial services:

The real estate industry chain is long and wide-ranging, has an important impact on the national economy, and is closely related to the lives of the people.

In the future, how much effect can the RRR cut play, and what will be the trend of the stock market and property market?

At the same time, does this RRR cut mean that the space for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts after the year is officially opened, and what impact will be brought about by the Fed's entry into the interest rate cut channel in 2024?

The minibus contacted a number of big heads, and the following are their opinions, which are for reference only.

Q1

How do you see the impact of recent policies on the current stock market and property market?

In fact, Deputy Director Xiao spoke a total of four articles this afternoon, all of which are dry goods, so let's transcribe his original words and translate them more bluntly by the way-

◎ Forcing banks to give money: "Accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and achieve results"

◎ Another new method for giving money: "Guide financial institutions to implement the requirements for the management of operating property loans." ”

◎Continue to reduce down payments and mortgage interest rates: "We must continue to do a good job in personal housing loan financial services, and further optimize personal housing loan policies such as down payment ratio and loan interest rate due to the city's policies. ”

◎ Long-term policies should have short-term results: "Guide and require banks and other financial institutions to vigorously support the construction of 'three major projects' such as 'peacetime and emergency' public infrastructure and urban village transformation, and require the formation of physical workload as soon as possible." ”

The short-term bottom of the stock market phase is seen. The rally should be based around this point and then unfold gradually.

In the past few days, the press conferences of the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the Ministry of Commerce have been very sincere. Some policy support, I believe will continue to come out, this is a series of combination punches. If there is no follow-up policy, simply cutting the RRR will not have much effect.

The stock market and the property market, we believe that the effect will not be too large, such as the stock market is tens of billions, the property market is tens of billions, this range for the current stock market, is only a technical rebound. It is very difficult to completely reverse the expectations of society as a whole.

However, we believe that it is very necessary to save the stock market and the property market now. The main reason is that the macro balance sheet has shrunk, for example, if the company does not have so much cash and liabilities on its books, then there will definitely be no money to invest, and it will not be able to generate high revenue and profits, which is a big disaster for the economy.

Therefore, the current policy guidance, the minimum goal, at least is to make the stock market and property market stop shrinking.

Some time ago, the non-controlling shareholders of many listed companies issued an announcement to reduce their holdings, selling at the floor price, alleviating liquidity pressure should be the main reason; during this time, A-shares faced liquidity pressure, and there was a negative feedback loop, and selling assets at a low price to repay loans was also an important reason.

In addition, the RRR cut will strengthen the expectation of a reversal in the stock market, reduce the potential selling pressure, and further optimize the market liquidity environment.

By all indications, the worst is behind us. At this time, unless liquidity is urgently needed, don't sell anymore, don't fall before dawn.

Objectively, the most intuitive effect of the RRR cut on the property market is to make the loan amount more sufficient, and if the mortgage interest rate is lowered from the current 4.2% to 3.8% or even lower, the stimulus will be greater, but their impact on the market as a whole is still relatively limited.

The reason is that I believe that what is lacking in the current property market is the demand for buying houses, and the way to stimulate demand cannot be limited to just making "buying a house" smoother, but to adjust some obstacle policies such as "purchase restrictions".

Q2

How do you see the subsequent RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and mortgage interest rates this year?

Under the structure of the new Central Financial Commission, the work efficiency is very high, and of course, it also reflects that the management department is aware of the necessity of the RRR cut.

This time it was reduced by 50BP, generally 25BP, mainly to ease interbank liquidity. In the fourth quarter of last year, an additional $1 trillion in government bonds was issued, bringing the deficit to 3.8 percent. As soon as you issue treasury bonds, it will siphon, and this is whether it is the financial market or the liquidity between banks, which leads to a sudden tightening of liquidity, so we saw a rare spike in interbank interest rates on October 31 last year (minibus note: bank overnight lending rates are up to 50%).

In addition, the current measures are also to coincide with the announcement of new fiscal deficits at the two sessions this year.

We believe that it is still possible to cut the RRR and interest rates within the year, especially the interest rate cut is more necessary. The country still guides the entire general interest rate downward through OMO (open market operation) and MLF (medium-term operation convenience interest rate) two policy interest rate tools, but the problem now is that the real interest rate demand is relatively low, and a relatively low interest rate is needed to maintain the stable operation of the economy, but the policy interest rate is still relatively high, and there is a difference between the actual interest rate and the policy interest rate. Reduce the burden on home buyers and stimulate economic vitality. We believe that it is very likely that MLF and OMO interest rates will be cut by another 30 bps this year.

From the perspective of stable growth, there is still the need and space for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in 2024. On the one hand, the recovery of the real economy is still unstable and needs to be supported by loose liquidity, and at the same time, the fiscal policy also needs to be coordinated by loose monetary policy; on the other hand, affected by the sluggish price level, the real interest rate level of the mainland is still at a high point, which has produced a strong suppression of the financing willingness of the real sector, and it is still necessary to reduce the real interest rate by lowering the nominal interest rate.

In recent years, the housing market and stock market have been sluggish, which has directly affected the assets of the people on the one hand, and the sluggish industry on the other hand, which has directly or indirectly affected everyone's income. Among them, the overall decline in real estate has the widest impact, including construction, decoration and building materials, home appliances, advertising media, and service industries. When there is no certainty in household assets and income, confidence is naturally low.

At present, the transformation and breakthrough of the domestic industry is still continuing, its potential energy has not completely replaced the old industry, is still in the throes stage, objectively speaking, now cultural tourism, light consumption, short consumption is hot, but the consumption of bulk commodities is insufficient, more pragmatic, more rational, "not much money in hand, money in the pocket is not bulging, can buy or not buy will not buy", overall, the whole society is very "tight".

Now, the state has first released the good news of the RRR cut, to put it bluntly, that is, to let everyone, enterprises, and the industry "have money" and restore confidence a little;

The easing signal of the RRR cut will also help banks around the country to implement the operation of reducing down payment and mortgage interest rates.

Q3

In your opinion, what is the impact and opportunity for China when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates?

Because of multiple factors such as exchange rates, which affect our policy space. For example, when the United States starts cutting interest rates, the interest rate differential between China and the United States will affect the exchange rate, which in turn will affect China's interest rate. It limits our room to operate and restricts the introduction of some stimulus policies.

The specific time, the market believes that it is March. I can't predict, this is related to the problem of US economic data, in fact, there is also a game problem between China and the United States, one of the reasons why China cannot cut interest rates at will is because the Fed does not cut interest rates, and the Fed does not want you to cut interest rates if it does not cut interest rates.

Now everyone's general expectation is that the Federal Reserve will most likely cut interest rates in the first half of the year, but it is difficult to say whether it will be in the first quarter or the second quarter, because some economic data was also released yesterday, and we found that the U.S. economy is still recovering very well, and the possibility of interest rate cuts is not so urgent, so the specific first quarter or second quarter interest rate cuts are not yet confirmed, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year is very high.

The "U.S. 10-year Treasury yield" is the anchor of global asset pricing, and its interest rate is slightly lowered, which is a little friendlier to China's asset pricing, and China's stock market and property market are more comfortable, because it will siphon some "liquidity".

Another point is that we were afraid that interest rates would invert and the exchange rate would be ugly, so now if the Fed cuts interest rates, we will have more room for monetary policy to operate.

The author of this article is Lin Bo | Responsible editor | He Mengfei

主编 |何梦飞| 图源 |VCG