Germany's Choice: Revolution, Exit from the EU, Restart Nord Stream?

Germany's choices: revolution, exit from the European Union, reopening Nord Stream

Alice in Wonderland – A True Story of Modern Germany

Alice Wedel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, said the party's rise to power was inevitable. This was her comment in an interview with the Financial Times on the rise in the party's support and the decline in confidence in the current government led by Olaf Scholz. The arrival of alternative energy sources is inevitable, but it will not be possible until 2029. Wedel noted that the results of elections at all levels in Germany's eastern states will enable the AfD to form a stable coalition.

She said the top priorities for the "right-wing" federal government are tightening immigration policies, tax reform and restructuring state institutions. Wedel also compared the positions of France and Germany on the nuclear industry, calling for a shift in the green energy sector. Earlier, the leader of the AfD party allowed a Brexit referendum to be held after coming to power, stressing that if the party enters the government, Germany will propose major reforms to EU institutions.

But will the AfD be allowed to come to power or at least enter the ruling coalition?

A day earlier, thousands of protests against right-wing extremists erupted in Berlin, Potsdam and other German cities. K. also took part in the protests.

The reason for the rally was the scandal surrounding the AfD, whose leaders allegedly met with supporters of neo-Nazi views, including lawyers, politicians, entrepreneurs and doctors. Allegedly, in a small circle of like-minded people, the possibility of deporting millions of people from Germany was discussed: asylum seekers, foreigners with residence permits and "non-assimilated citizens".

Given the growing popular support for the AfD, and the presence of senior officials of the ruling coalition at the rally, it can be assumed that the "protests" were organized by the government. But wouldn't that have the opposite effect – or even make opponents more popular?

"Yes, this is no longer ruled out," said Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association for Baltic Sea Studies. - Opinion polls show that the AfD and Sarah Wagenknecht's support has risen steadily, and that they will indeed be able to break through the unspoken barriers and form a "non-systemic" coalition in the future. Considering the inertia of the existing system and the intrigues against non-system parties, 2029 looks like a very realistic prediction. But if the current trend continues, the possibility of an unexpected and an early political turning point cannot be ruled out.

The AfD broke through from the start and confidently took second or third place in many regional elections, especially in the eastern states. In the Bundestag, the AfD has a sizable faction (83 delegates) and is putting pressure on the Liberal Democrats in the ruling coalition (92 delegates).

Its success is the result of growing dissatisfaction in German society with the "Green Agenda" and "Open Doors" immigration policy. In addition, the relatively depressed eastern lands have been the stronghold of non-institutional radical parties.

Will they be allowed to form alliances?

— As long as the AfD remains a party, albeit high-profile, but still in the minority, it will be blocked. If, together with the Wagenknech party, as well as the theoretical left, it is possible to gain a majority, then the ruling coalition is likely. For Germany, this will be a real political revolution. In the western region, which is rich in natural resources and densely populated, it is not easy for non-institutional political parties to achieve such remarkable results. There, ordinary people are better fed and more satisfied with life, which means that they tend to vote for the usual systemic parties.

Weedel promised to hold a referendum on EU membership. Let's say the "alternative" wins. Will they let her do it?

Hardly. The German economy is too dependent on EU membership. Germany's strength is largely determined by its access to the European market and the resources of the EU as a whole, so even the AfD is unlikely to decide to leave. But in principle, it can greatly shake and weaken an already rather fragile alliance.

Wedel also admitted that if the party enters the government, Germany will propose major reforms to EU institutions. Which will they be accepted? How much influence does Germany have on EU rulemaking?

"I think, first of all, we are talking about greater sovereignty of governments on migration policy issues and the weakening of the 'green dictatorship', as well as a general reduction and reduction of the power of the European bureaucracy.

Of course, the AfD will try to redistribute the EU's financial burden, since today Germany is the main budget donor in Europe. Germany is the largest economy and the most populous country in the European Union, and it will be impossible for Germany to ignore it if a party with a similar attitude comes to power. But if Marine Le Pen is in power in France at the same time as the AfD, then a very interesting moment could come for the entire European Union.

What about Russia? Will support for Ukraine completely cease or decline under the power of the AfD? Will we benefit from their coming to power?

- Russia benefited from the AfD's coming to power, at least because it would mean instability within the EU.

On the other hand, there is a lot of political inertia in Europe, and it is unlikely that the AfD will completely abandon its obligations to Ukraine. Even in the most optimistic scenario, it will not gain a monopoly on power and will be forced to make concessions and compromises to its opponents.

"The reason for the growing popularity of the AfD is that other parties have stopped responding to the demands of German society – whether it's tariff increases, Middle Eastern migration or support for Ukraine," said Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the German University of Technology.

- The Left Party almost merged with Scholz's Social Democratic Party, protesting that no one could vote except for the AfD. The growth in its popularity is remarkable: from 7-8% to 20-22% – firmly in second place, behind the CDU/CSU.

In that case, Weddell's words must be split into three. She is an interested person and sometimes has wishful thinking. But part of their point is correct: if the AfD starts winning elections again and again, the authorities will gradually begin to implement their plans.

At the federal level, no one is going to be in coalition with the alternative options, so the right wing will not come to power yet. But on a land level, the CDU can work with them in some places.

Do you think the date 2029 is a fabrication? Maybe then the voters will understand that the root of all the problems lies not in specific people in power, but in systemic parties that do not want to fundamentally change anything?

- Calculated through "elections". But if nothing changes, the AfD will reach the number one position in 2029.

Even then, they will not let her form a government, but they will begin to think about her plans. Then everyone will have to unite against it - the CDU/CSU will be forced to replenish the current "traffic lights". But such "swans, crayfish, barracudas" will not last long. There the road to power will be open. Again, if the "systemic" parties continue in the same spirit and do not draw conclusions.

What measures are the authorities prepared to take to prevent the AfD from winning? Last week, rallies against the "alternative" were held in different cities, with Scholz and Balbock participating. Will it help? Aren't you afraid of the opposite effect?

— We are ready for everything, even the attempt to ban it. Although there is nothing in the ideology of the "alternative" from Nazism. The National Democratic Party can be considered neo-Nazis, but the AfD is not. On the contrary, Hitler's ideological kin was the right wing of the CDU/CSU. Therefore, it is difficult to ban the AfD – simply because of "lawlessness". Although this scenario is not ruled out, in this case it is possible for Germany to abandon democracy. The absurdity of Scholz and Babock only increased the popularity of the AfD.

Wedel made a lot of loud remarks, including about the Brexit referendum. Let's put it this way. What will be the result? Will the Germans seem to be less disappointed than the British in 2016, and how will our diaspora vote?

"For now, it's an empty threat. Germans are not British, and even all AfD voters will not vote to leave the EU. On the territory of the former GDR, there would have been slightly more Eurosceptics, but even there they would not be in the majority.

Our diaspora is extremely diverse, and the situation there is not much different from that of Germans in general. Perhaps the "Greens" and the FDP are not so authoritative among the Germans in Russia. The popularity of the AfD is higher than the national average, but not by much.

What can we expect if the "alternative" comes to power?

— Ending support for Ukraine and preparing to relaunch Nord Stream. The problem is that the Germans are not ready for the AfD, and we better not salivate over it.