A while ago, Yole released a report, which showed that in the automotive lidar market in 2022, Innovusion (Tudatong, now renamed Seyond), Valeo (Valeo), Hesai (Hesai), RoboSense (Suteng Juchuang), and Livox (Livox) have market shares of 25%, 25%, 24%, 12%, and 10% respectively.
In 2023, China's automakers have rapidly adopted lidar technology, which has led to the rapid rise of China's two leading lidar companies, Hesai and RoboSense, to the top two, accounting for 41% and 29% of the global market share, respectively, and the two companies can ship 68% of the total lidar passenger cars. The other two domestic brands, Seyond, Livox and Huawei, ranked third, fifth and sixth, accounting for 12%, 4% and 1% of the global market share, respectively.
On the other hand, foreign brands, France's Valeo ranked fourth, accounting for 10% of the global market share, Germany's iBeo, the United States' Cepton, and Israel's Innoviz were all left behind.
Specifically, Tudatong only cooperates with NIO, so sales cannot grow as quickly as the leading manufacturers; Valeo expects new shipments to be concentrated in Kia and Hyundai, but these orders are limited to high-end cars, so the increase is limited; Cepton has received orders from General Motors and innoviz has received orders from BMW, but the progress of the products of these two OEMs has been slow, and after several delays, there are still great uncertainties; other manufacturers such as Luminar have not seen large-scale shipments, and the delay in the delivery of Volvo EX90 has also affected the overall progress。
Of course, there are some differences between global and domestic data for different institutions. According to the data released by the Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, from January ~ November 2023, the ranking of domestic passenger car (excluding import and export) front-mounted standard lidar suppliers has changed, and Suteng Juchuang surpassed Hesai for the first time and ranked first. Overall, the overall LiDAR market presents a situation where Hesai and Suteng Juchuang are competing with each other.
It can be said that domestic car factories are the biggest booster for Hesai and Suteng Juchuang. As the autonomous driving scenario continues to change, lidar is a necessary component, and at the same time, the number of hardware and software requirements will be higher.
Compared with foreign countries, the strategies for lidar at home and abroad are not the same. Foreign car companies mainly add LiDAR to L3, while China has applied LiDAR in advance as a driving force for L2+ and L3.
With the Xpeng G6 starting to be equipped with LiDAR, the integration of automotive LiDAR has gradually penetrated into the 200,000-level and D-class models, not only in high-end markets such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi, NIO and Ideal.
Domestic "Super Double"
Lidar companies, a domestic company, have a similar experience.
First of all, they are basically typical academic entrepreneurs: Hesaike Li Yifan graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Sun Kai and Xiang Shaoqing have Ph.D. degrees from Stanford University, and the three co-founders started their own businesses in Silicon Valley at first and later decided to return to China; Suteng Juchuang Suqiu Chunxin, Liu Letian, and Zhu Xiaorui are from Harbin Institute of Technology, and the first two are the same brothers; Bao Junwei, the founder of Tudatong, graduated from the Department of Physics of Peking University and later studied at the University of California, Berkeley and obtained a Ph.D. in electrical engineering.
Secondly, the goal is to quickly reduce the cost of lidar and quickly popularize this technology. In the prospectus of Suteng Juchuang, the price of Suteng Juchuang has fallen by nearly 70% in two years, while that of Hesai is more than 80%, which indicates that the involution and reshuffle of the industry are accelerating.
In the end, three companies chose to list overseas, including US stocks and Hong Kong stocks.
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According to data disclosed by Japan's patent agency, since 2000, Chinese companies have filed 25,957 related patent applications in the automotive lidar industry, compared with 18,821 for American companies and 13,939 for Japanese companies.
Among them, Bosch filed the most patent applications, followed by Japanese auto parts giant Denso, and Suteng Juchuang and Hesai from China ranked fourth and fifth. However, since 2015, the number of patent applications filed by the two Chinese companies has increased dramatically. The final outcome was that Bosch announced its withdrawal from LiDAR research and development last year, and Toyota, which is behind Denso, designated some market model projects to Suteng Juchuang.
It can be said that the reshuffle in the field of lidar has begun, and it will become more and more volatile in the next few years. However, this market is also growing faster than expected. In 2022, the market size of LiDAR in passenger cars and L4 autonomous driving (including Robotaxi) increased by 95% year-on-year to US$317 million, and in 2028, the market can grow to US$4.477 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 55%.
With the official implementation of the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Intelligent Connected Vehicle Access and Road Traffic", L3/L4 autonomous driving will drive a new round of potential demand for high-end configurations. According to the forecast data of the Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, it is optimistically estimated that more than 5 million domestic passenger cars will be equipped with lidar in 2025.
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