Apple's market capitalization has been unstable for 14 consecutive years?

The two companies have completely different models, but both have achieved a market capitalization of about $3 trillion. It is of no practical significance to simply distinguish between the first and second market capitalization, and the long-term actions behind the high market capitalization of the two are more instructive

Text: Wu Junyu Jin Yan   

Edited by Lilly Tse

In the past 10 days, the total market value of Microsoft and Apple has been repeatedly seesawing. The battle between the two companies for the world's largest market capitalization is heating up.

In May 2010, Apple replaced Microsoft, the world's largest company in terms of market capitalization, for 14 years. During this period, Microsoft caught up and overtook Apple a few times — 26 months ago, when Microsoft overtook Apple, but it only lasted less than 20 days. The latest overtake is particularly concerning.

At the close of trading on January 12, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed at $388.47, with a total market capitalization of $2.89 trillion. On the day, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed at $185.40, with a total market capitalization of $2.87 trillion. This time, Microsoft's market value surpassed Apple's for 10 days. As of the close of trading on January 22, Microsoft was worth $2.95 trillion and Apple was $3.00 trillion, regaining the first place in market capitalization.

The outside world is particularly concerned about the market value struggle between Microsoft and Apple. It's an anticipatory tuning of the business models and technology trends that Microsoft and Apple represent.

Microsoft and Apple stand at the top, leaving other companies far behind. As of January 22, the combined market capitalization of Microsoft and Apple was US$5.95 trillion (about 43 trillion yuan, converted at the latest exchange rate), more than half of the total market value of China's A-shares (70 trillion yuan, 43 trillion yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange + 27 trillion yuan on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange).

Apple's ascension to the world's largest market capitalization date back to May 2010. At that time, Apple's market capitalization surpassed Microsoft for the first time, becoming the world's most valuable company. In the past 14 years, although Microsoft has briefly surpassed Apple, the time is very short, and Apple can always overtake it quickly. In November 2021, Microsoft's market value once surpassed Apple's. At that time, it mainly benefited from the growth of Microsoft's cloud business brought by the epidemic.

The view of multiple market analysts is that Microsoft is now in a tailwind period and Apple is in a headwind period. Driven by cloud and AI businesses, Microsoft's performance fundamentals are better, and the core that supports Microsoft's market value to further expand is getting harder and harder.

Microsoft was founded in 1975 and has a history of 49 years, while Apple was founded in 1976 and has a history of 48 years. Both companies are evergreens in decades of transformation in the tech industry. Microsoft has become a leader in the To B market through "gradual transformation", and Apple has become a leader in the To C market with "no change in response to all changes".

In the past 14 years, the total market value of Apple and Microsoft has been catching up. Investors generally believe that the two companies are not on the same track, and it is not important to distinguish between the first and second in market capitalization. Huang Shaoping, a researcher at Tamarack Advisory, an American investment management firm, quoted Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella as saying that stock prices are the last thing to pay attention to. Stock prices are more of a "lagging indicator" of market reaction. In the technology industry, the most important thing is always the "future". This is key to supporting the company's long-term growth.

Microsoft and Apple's ability to lead innovation and their determination to face the downturn are the things that Chinese technology companies should learn the most.

Microsoft, a steady and sharp hunter

In the past year or so, the trend of large models has gradually become a trend, and many people attribute the latest jump in Microsoft's market value to this. This statement is not wrong, but if you want to analyze it deeply, the root cause is that Microsoft's long-term and stable strategic layout has brought stable performance growth.

In the past decade, Microsoft has stepped on two important technological change nodes: one is the cloud transformation after 2014, and the other is the AI technology transformation since 2023 - which is closely related to Microsoft's gradual transformation over the years.

Before 2014, the outside world thought that Microsoft was an outdated company stuck in the PC era, and it lost the entire mobile Internet era.

James Early, chief investment officer of BBAE, a cutting-edge online brokerage in the United States, told Caijing that ten years ago, when Satya Nadella first took over as CEO of Microsoft, his team at that time treated Microsoft as a "dead money" stock for options trading. Because Microsoft's stock price has not improved for many years.

At that time, Microsoft had three major business segments: first, mobile phones and mobile operating systems. This was originally considered a top priority for the transformation. But it is losing ground in the competition with Apple and Google. Second, the growth rate of the Windows operating system and Office suite, the two old businesses in the PC era slowed down and was considered to lack imagination; third, the enterprise service business, which was dominated by traditional IT forms (such as buyout software) at that time, was in the early stage of cloud transformation and could not support Microsoft.

In 2014, cloud computing began to enter a critical period of large-scale commercialization. Microsoft's third largest business will struggle to turn around if it can't seize the opportunity.

In February 2014, after Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella took office, he reformulated Microsoft's corporate strategy and launched "cloud transformation" - using the cloud to reshape Microsoft's best enterprise services, Windows operating system, Office suite and other businesses.

Satya Nadella, who later wrote about Microsoft's cloud transformation book Refresh, said that when he took over in 2014, he wanted to rediscover the soul of Microsoft. Microsoft's belief is software. The cloud is the foundation that allows Microsoft to flow between computers, mobile phones, and software. In his opinion, Microsoft should focus on itself, rather than being jealous of Apple's mobile phones and Google's Android, and compete directly with its rivals. Jealousy can't get Microsoft far.

In Microsoft's strategic layout of "cloud transformation", the Windows operating system and Office suite are positioned as the basic disks that contribute to cash flow. Cloud computing and enterprise software are set to be the second growth curve for the future. The mobile phone and mobile operating system business, which Microsoft is not good at, was strategically abandoned. One of the representative events is the sale of Nokia, which was acquired for $7.2 billion in 2016 at a low price of $350 million. Looking only at the return on capital, this trade is a failure. Strategically, this is a timely stop loss, showing Microsoft's determination to "cloud transformation" to the outside world.

Once Microsoft's "cloud transformation" is focused, it will make a sharp move. The decade of transformation can be roughly divided into three stages - the recovery period, the right track period, and the tuyere period. These three phases are characterized by clear goals, going with the flow, and interlocking. Microsoft has embarked on a gradual transformation around the enterprise services business that it does best.

Microsoft did not disclose cloud business data prior to fiscal year 2016 (July 1, 2015 – June 30, 2016). Since the beginning of fiscal 2016, Microsoft's intelligent cloud (including Azure, server, enterprise consulting and other services) accounted for only 25.3% of total revenue. Subsequently, the proportion has been rising, and in fiscal year 2023 (July 1, 2022 - June 30, 2023), the proportion of revenue is as high as 41.5%. In other words, cloud computing is already Microsoft's largest revenue engine. The operating margin of the business has also been rising, and has improved by more than 10 percentage points in the past six fiscal years.

2014-2016 was Microsoft's recovery period. The core goal of this phase is to enable legacy software businesses (Office, Windows, Azure, productivity and orchestration software) to be cloudified in line with technological change.

Microsoft's operating income and operating profit maintained negative growth from 2015 to 2016. Earnings are even more ugly than they were before the "cloud transformation". But this is the labor pain that must be experienced during the transition period. Microsoft has successfully survived the past three years under the critical eyes of public opinion and capital doubts.

At this stage, cloud transformation is like a "rebirth". Businesses are often under financial stress over a period of years, usually three years. Because of the high cost of R&D in the early stage of transformation and the insufficient number of renewal customers. It is also necessary to convert the payment model of "one-time buyout of software and hardware + human services" to the renewal model of "yearly/monthly cloud subscription". As a result, companies have to endure problems such as declining revenues and profits. The good news is that once the transformation is completed, with the subsequent dilution of R&D costs and the growth of renewal revenue, the company's revenue and profits will continue to rise.

From 2017 to 2022, Microsoft has done two things: First, it has formed a "bucket-style" business layout covering IaaS (infrastructure), PaaS (basic software), and SaaS (application software) around the main axis of enterprise services. Second, invest in mergers and acquisitions around core competencies such as cloud, software, and AI.

Microsoft was originally a follower in the cloud market. In the tug-of-war with Amazon AWS, Microsoft's revenue scale has gradually gained the upper hand. Microsoft's advantage is that the business is complete and there are no shortcomings. In contrast, Amazon AWS only focuses on IaaS and cannot provide complete services. Microsoft has achieved higher revenue growth and profit levels. Microsoft also relied on its investment in OpenAI to create an industry outlet, become an industry leader, and further drive performance growth.

In terms of business layout, Microsoft's products and services cover three levels of cloud computing: IaaS, PaaS and SaaS. Microsoft is also continuing its advantages of being rooted in the government and large enterprise markets for more than 20 years, expanding its professional fields such as consulting and planning, and subdividing industries.

The "bucket-shaped" business layout has allowed Microsoft to form three rotational growth curves of "cloud + software + AI". At present, Microsoft's cloud business has a revenue growth rate of 20%-30% and a gross profit margin of about 60%, while a software business revenue growth rate of 40%-60% and a gross profit margin of 80%. The growth rate of AI computing power revenue even exceeded 100%. The three curves also constitute a synergy, in which the cloud is the resource and the base, the software will bring customer stickiness and cash profits, and AI will drive resource consumption and innovate the software experience.

In terms of investment and M&A, Microsoft has focused on core competitiveness such as cloud, software, and AI. For example, it has successively acquired companies such as Linkedin (talent solutions), Avere Systems (hybrid cloud data storage), GitHub (open source community), Nuance (medical AI), and invested in OpenAI (AI and large models) and Truveta (medical data).

Investments and mergers and acquisitions around cloud, software, and AI have given Microsoft the initiative to change technology. In December 2022, Microsoft-backed OpenAI launched ChatGPT, which triggered a revolution in the AI and cloud industries. In the old cloud technology, the computing power resources were mainly CPU (central processing unit) chips, and the business scenarios it could cope with were limited. However, in the new round of cloud technology, computing resources are mainly GPU (graphics processing unit) chips, which have a wider range of business scenarios (video and pictures), which can greatly reduce the cost of computing, software, and services.

In 2023, Microsoft will promote the implementation of the large-scale model industry and exchange imagination space for performance growth. The market advantage of Microsoft Cloud over Amazon AWS and Google Cloud is still expanding.

In 2023, the U.S. macro economy will be under pressure, and the revenue growth rate of cloud computing and digital enterprises will generally decline. Driven by the large model, Microsoft Cloud has grown against the trend. Microsoft's financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 (third quarter of 2023) shows that Microsoft's intelligent cloud (Microsoft Azure and enterprise services business) revenue increased by 19.4% year-on-year, compared with Amazon AWS and Google Cloud.

Microsoft's intelligent cloud operating margin of 48.4% has climbed to the highest point in nearly three years and is much higher than Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud. In a post-earnings conference call, Microsoft management bluntly told investors that higher-than-expected AI spending was driving Azure's revenue growth.

A strategic planner from a Chinese cloud vendor told Caijing that the market is more concerned about how much AI will play a role in Microsoft's pull and how long the cycle will be. Because AI has gone through rounds of bubbles, practitioners are worried that this large-scale model tuyere is a new round of bubbles. Microsoft's financial performance in 2024 will be crucial. If Microsoft can continue to deliver on market expectations into actual results, then there is huge room for further upside in market capitalization.

The current judgment of many Chinese cloud vendors is that Microsoft's fundamentals are relatively stable. The industrial landing of large models in the United States is still accelerating. In the next few quarters, Microsoft's revenue growth rate and profit level will continue to grow.

Looking back on the "cloud transformation" in the past decade, Microsoft's most praised industry is that this company is extremely determined and patient. It revolves around the main axis of enterprise services, step by step. When the critical technological change node came, it quietly replaced all the parts on the old ship with new ones during the voyage.

Guo Yuxiang, managing director of Gaocheng Capital, a Chinese investment firm specializing in corporate services, told Caijing that the key to maintaining a steady pace of software companies' "cloud transformation" is to do the right thing at the right time. The golden rule for the long-term transformation of the U.S. software market is the "Rule of 40", that is, "revenue growth + operating profit margin" should exceed 40%. Companies need to know exactly when to invest strategically and when to scale profitably within customer lifetime value (LTV).

The above-mentioned strategic planners of Chinese cloud vendors believe that the enterprise service market cannot rely on "vigorously producing miracles", which requires a deep understanding of technology development trends, real customer needs, and production and research implementation cycles. Microsoft's strategy is steady, and it makes almost no mistakes. In terms of technology trends, Microsoft's "cloud transformation" in the past decade has stepped on the two technological changes of cloud in 2014 and AI in 2023. In terms of business performance, Microsoft has been steadily moving forward on the "Rule of 40" golden rule for a long time. Cloud, software, and AI are interlinked to form a rotational growth.

Apple, the master of change

Unlike Microsoft, which has had a smooth 2023, Apple is currently in a headwind period. In the past four quarters, Apple's revenue has been negative.

Apple's biggest challenge is the overall sluggishness of the track. In 2024, the global mobile phone and PC markets are declining. According to IDC, an international market research agency, global smartphone shipments in 2023 will fall by 3.2% year-on-year to 1.17 billion units, which is the lowest annual shipment in a decade. According to data from Counterpoint, an international market research agency, the global PC market shipments will decline by 14% year-on-year in 2023.

This has caused Apple's stock price to fluctuate in the short term. But this fluctuation is only reflected in the fact that Apple's market capitalization has not risen enough. In the past year (at the close of trading on January 16, 2023 EST - at the close of trading on January 16, 2024), Microsoft's market capitalization has increased by 63.0%, and Apple's market capitalization has increased by 34.0%. Microsoft's market capitalization has risen much more than Apple's. That said, Apple isn't doing badly. Apple remains the second-largest company in the U.S. stock market by market capitalization. It's just slightly inferior to Microsoft.

Apple is experiencing industry problems, not corporate problems. In the past four quarters, Apple's negative revenue growth has been more dragged down by the PC market - in fiscal year 2023 (October 1, 2022 - September 30, 2023), Mac (Apple computer) revenue fell by 26.9% year-on-year. But Apple's mobile phone business is still strong.

In the mobile phone industry, Apple is still the company with the largest proportion of revenue and profits. Apple's market share is even bucking the trend.

Apple's revenue and profits still have absolute dominance in the mobile phone market. Apple has long accounted for more than 40% of the revenue in the mobile phone market and more than 80% of the profits. According to data from Counterpoint, an international market research agency, in August 2023, in the second quarter of 2023, Apple accounted for 45% of the revenue and 85% of the profit of the global mobile phone market, Samsung accounted for 17% of the revenue and 12% of the profit of the global mobile phone market, and other mobile phone manufacturers (Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo) accounted for 38% of the revenue and only 3% of the profit of the global mobile phone market.

Moreover, recently, Apple has returned to the No. 1 position in global mobile phone shipments after a decade. According to data from an international market research agency in January 2024, Apple's global shipments in 2023 will reach 234.6 million units, with a global market share of 20.1%.

Since the birth of the iPhone in 2007, Apple's main products have been mobile phones, computers, tablets and other consumer electronics. Apple continues to increase its brand value, gain pricing power through product stickiness, and then squeeze every cent of hardware profits.

Huang Shaoping told Caijing that the average price of Android phones is only $250, while the average price of Apple phones is as high as $949. Even so, Apple has the largest market share in the global mobile phone market. Consumers would rather buy the more expensive Apple over the cheaper Android.

Ji Junli believes that Apple's brand value provides pricing power. Pricing power, in turn, brings high profits. Solid profit returns are the basis for investors to be optimistic about Apple in the long run.

With huge profits, Apple has been paying dividends to investors and buying back shares for many years. As a result, Apple's stock price has been pushed higher. Ji Junli even believes that pricing power is the basis for Apple to remain the world's largest company by market capitalization for a long time in the past.

The consumer electronics market has seen a series of outlets such as wearables, VR/AR, and automobiles. However, Apple has always kept its main products, not moved by changes in the outside world, and avoided one pseudo "big outlet" after another. Apple continues to consolidate its advantages in the consumer electronics market such as mobile phones, computers, and tablets.

This "no change" model is not uncriticized. Apple is sometimes perceived by mass consumers as lacking imagination - product innovation such as mobile phones, computers, and tablets is like "squeezing toothpaste", and it is hesitant to move forward in the face of new tracks such as automobiles, and VR is currently making limited progress due to the lack of maturity of technology.

Some investors disagree. One judgment on the U.S. investment platform Seeking Alpha is that for Apple, the car is an area that needs to rebuild its supply chain, consumes huge cash flows, and is unpredictable about success or failure. Apple can't just throw itself into the bottomless pit. If it doesn't work out, it will break the cycle of Apple paying dividends with huge profits and buying back shares, which in turn will cause the stock price to fall.

In Huang Shaoping's view, Apple's transformation is long-term and low-key. Apple's long-built strong ecosystem and user base are quietly driving its transformation from hardware products to software services. In the past decade, the proportion of revenue from software services such as iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple Pay has been increasing. In fiscal year 2023, it accounted for 22.2% and has become Apple's second largest business.

The good news for Apple is that the global consumer electronics market downturn will come to an end. The judgment of international market research institutions IDC and Counterpoint is that in 2024, the mobile phone and computer markets will gradually recover. This trend has already emerged in the fourth quarter of 2023. This also means that Apple will get out of the headwind. The battle for the crown of Apple and Microsoft's market capitalization will continue in 2024.

The consensus of many investors is that in the U.S. capital market, Microsoft and Apple are still the most stable investment targets. Microsoft's certainty is the imagination space and actual performance growth brought by AI, and Apple's certainty is the actual return brought by net profit and dividends/buybacks.

Ji Junli bluntly said that as an investor, he does not pay attention to the "war" of market value. He is more concerned about the question of who will grow more in the future, Microsoft or Apple.

Guo Yuxiang, managing director of Gaocheng Capital, told Caijing that under this round of AI wave, Microsoft's current strategic position is the best. Apple has lacked growth compared to Microsoft. Apple's revenue growth is negative, but the price-earnings ratio is still around 30 times. One of the major factors in this phenomenon of inverted performance and stock price is that there are too many uncertainties in the global macroeconomy, and investors are more likely to choose leading technology companies with strong certainty such as Apple and Microsoft in pursuit of certainty.

In Huang Shaoping's view, Microsoft's certainty is attributed to its continuous exploration and actual performance growth in the field of cutting-edge technologies such as AI, as well as its ability to continuously adapt to market changes and carry out technological innovation. As long as Microsoft continues to carry out "gradual transformation" step by step and accurately capture the prey in the market, then its "hegemon" position will be difficult to shake.

She further explained that Apple's certainty can be attributed to its solid financial performance and substantial net profit. This stems from its unshakable market position in the consumer electronics sector. Apple "responds to all changes with the same" and maintains a calm attitude in the surging tide of technology. This stability is the key to its long-term investor trust.

Microsoft Apple risks and implications

The market value has reached nearly 3 trillion US dollars, and Microsoft and Apple have achieved the extreme. However, Microsoft and Apple still face many uncertainties, such as government regulation and geopolitical risks.

Apple is facing risks such as antitrust and export controls. Huang Shaoping explained that Apple is currently facing a number of antitrust investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the European Commission. This can lead to heavy fines or forced changes to the business model. The U.S. International Trade Commission's (ITC) sales ban on the Apple Watch may also affect its profitability due to patent infringement disputes.

Apple's products have recently been sold at a discount in the Chinese market, which has triggered some investors' wariness of "Apple's loosening pricing power". In Ji Junli's view, Apple has never been known for cutting prices. If this is a reaction to low-price competition from other Chinese companies, then this could be an unfavorable sign.

Microsoft, on the other hand, is struggling with the ethical issues posed by artificial intelligence. In January 2024, The New York Times accused Microsoft and Open AI of copyright infringement with AI. Huang Shaoping judged that if it is finally established, Microsoft may need to pay huge legal compensation fees and may limit further development in the field of AI.

Huang Shaoping believes that these issues are the tip of the iceberg of the complex challenges of tech giants operating in the world. Not only can this result in a one-time financial loss, but it can also force companies to change their core business practices, which in turn can impact long-term earnings prospects and stock price movements.

Government regulation, geopolitics, these risk companies cannot directly control. The tide rises and falls, and the market is ever-changing. Microsoft and Apple's ability to lead innovation and their determination to face the downturn are the most important revelations for Chinese technology companies.

One of the most frequently discussed topics in China's technology industry is that the total market capitalization of Microsoft and Apple is equal to the sum of the market capitalization of China's top Internet technology companies.

Caijing statistics found that as of January 19, the total market value of the top 30 Chinese technology companies (including TSMC in Taiwan, China) was $1.81 trillion. The total market capitalization is only 61% of that of Microsoft or Apple ($2.96 trillion).

A number of Chinese technology companies have been experiencing turmoil in the past four years. At the peak, some enterprises have low continuity and high destructiveness in internal changes, and do not pay enough attention to profits. Enterprises are keen on businesses with low cross-border relevance and chasing short-term traffic outlets (such as community group buying and live e-commerce). They often invest heavily in short-term profits, rather than in the long term for long-term, definite technological change. During the trough period, some companies frequently adjust their management in order to seek change and innovation. The company's decision-making is "changing day and night", the implementation of the strategy is wavering, and the grassroots employees are confused and confused.

The repeated swings of peaks and troughs show the arbitrariness of many enterprises' internal governance and strategic layout. In August 2023, a senior executive of a Chinese cloud computing vendor commented to Caijing that some technology companies have been advocating "embracing change" for many years. But "embracing change" is sometimes a strategic laziness of management. A handful of executives set the course behind closed doors, ultimately making ordinary employees pay for poor decisions.

On the other hand, Microsoft, Apple, Apple and Microsoft have completely different business logics. Microsoft is a software company in the To B market, primarily for government enterprise customers. Apple is a hardware company in the To C market, mainly for mass consumers. The requirements of technology, market, and customers are completely different for the two companies.

However, the two companies also have some commonalities, such as the fact that they both execute strategies on a 5-10 year cycle. Whether it is Microsoft's "gradual transformation" or Apple's "constant response", the two companies have some common characteristics in response to market changes:

First, business expansion is step-by-step, and new and old businesses are closely linked. Long-term focus on core competitiveness. There are few organizational and strategic adjustments with poor continuity and strong destructiveness within the enterprise.

Second, always put profit and cash in an important position. Sufficient cash and profits allow companies to seize opportunities in a timely manner, or to withstand the cold winter.

Huang Shaoping commented that Microsoft has been like a hunter step by step in the past ten years, adjusting its direction in response to market changes again and again, and accurately catching prey. Apples are more like masters of gardening, not in a hurry to chase the wind in the midst of rapid change. Instead, we stick to the garden and carefully integrate product innovation, user experience, and ecosystem seamlessly.

The experience of Microsoft and Apple leading the way is even more valuable for Chinese tech companies.

Editor-in-charge | Tian Jie

Title Picture | Visual China

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