What happened to Vietnam's economy?

Vietnam in 2023 seems to be in trouble.

Since the beginning of 2023, from the economy to real estate, there has been a theory of Vietnam's collapse on the Internet.

There is also a view that from an economic dark horse to an economic crisis, Vietnam is falling rapidly.

Vietnam in 2022 is being blown up to be amazing;

Vietnam in 2023 will be degraded to worthlessness.

Is Vietnam in 2023 really so bad?

1

Vietnam in 2023.

Recently, the Statistics Office of Vietnam released Vietnam's economic data for almost the whole year of 2023, which also gave the economic growth rate.

What's going on in Vietnam in 2023?

Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fell to 5.05 percent in 2023 from 8.02 percent last year, missing the government's target of 6.5 percent and slower than the average economic growth rate of 5.87 percent over the past decade, according to official data released by Vietnam's National Statistics Office (GSO).

At the same time, Vietnam's import and export data both declined, with Vietnam's exports in 2023 at US$355.5 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, and its imports at US$327.5 billion, down 8.9% year-on-year.

An economic growth rate at its lowest pace since 2000, and an import and export data are both declining!

How about it, just carrying these two data, is it enough to sing the decline of Vietnam!

After all, Vietnam's GDP growth rate reached 8.02% in 2022, the highest growth rate since 1997.

As a result, everyone has high hopes for Vietnam in 2023.

Therefore, as long as Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2023 is lower than this figure, it will inevitably collapse!

Can these two points alone really conclude that Vietnam is going to fall?

Not to mention Vietnam, every country will have bad economic development every year, and there will also be good economic development.

Moreover, in fact, Vietnam is far from so bad, and even Vietnam's economic growth rate of 5.05% is a result that many countries cannot dream of.

Vietnam's economy in 2023 will have 8 bright spots.

1. Vietnam's economic data is already better than most countries, with a growth rate of 5.05%, ranking among the regional and world high-growth blocs.

2. The inflow of new foreign investment into Vietnam is still soaring, attracting foreign capital of US$36.6 billion in 2023, an increase of 32.1% against the backdrop of shrinking global trade and investment, and the actual foreign direct investment reached a record high of nearly US$23.2 billion (up 3.5%).

3. The VND will depreciate by less than 3% in 2023

，

Under the crazy interest rate hike by the United States, Vietnam's foreign exchange market remains stable.

4. Vietnam's trade surplus in 2023 will be about 28 billion US dollars, the highest in history. 

5. Vietnam's digital economy is expected to account for 16.5% of GDP in 2023, making it the country with the fastest growth rate in Southeast Asia's digital economy for two consecutive years.

The trend of Vietnam's CPI in recent years

6. Vietnam's agriculture was eye-catching in 2023 and continued to be a solid support for the economy, with an increase of 3.83% in 2023, the highest in nearly 10 years.

7. Many well-known international organizations have spoken highly of Vietnam's economic development achievements and prospects, and Fitch International Ratings has upgraded Vietnam's long-term national credit rating to BB+ from BB with a stable outlook. Only 2 out of 62 countries in Asia and the Pacific have received upward revisions.

8. In 2023, Vietnam has made many major breakthroughs and progress in diplomacy, with Vietnam and the United States and Japan and China all upgrading diplomatic relations.

Why, then, does Vietnam still give many people the stereotype that its economy is fragile and ready to collapse at any time?

2

The shortcomings of Vietnam's economy.

Because the Vietnamese economy does have one of the biggest criticisms, which is super dependent on imports and exports.

Vietnam's dominant industries are almost all export-oriented. From electronic products such as mobile phones and notebooks to labor-intensive industries such as textiles, clothing and footwear, more than 90% of production capacity comes from export support.

Vietnam's foreign trade is a typical "two-ended", the sales market is outside, raw materials and intermediate goods are also outside, and it is very dependent on the international market from raw materials to exports.

Moreover, now there is an unspoken rule that Vietnam's imports and exports are Europe and the United States on the one hand, and China on the other.

On the one hand, Vietnam's economy can make a lot of money from global geopolitical changes, but on the other hand, it is also extremely sensitive to geopolitics and global economic fluctuations.

This means that external turbulence will have an impact on Vietnam, and many people are not optimistic about the stability and anti-risk ability of Vietnam's economy.

In the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam's GDP growth rate fell more than expected to 3.32%, the most important reason being the drag on exports.

Throughout 2023, Vietnam's economy will slow down, and the biggest drag is foreign trade.

This is also the reason why Vietnam's economy, as soon as there is a storm, will be concluded.

3

Vietnam is not only about manufacturing.

While it is true that Vietnam is heavily dependent on foreign trade, Vietnam's strengths are not limited to manufacturing.

In addition to foreign trade, Vietnam's economy also has its own 3 hidden economic trump cards.

The first trump card: tourism!

2023 is a year of strong recovery for Vietnam's tourism industry.

Tourism, which accounts for about 14% of Vietnam's economy, has been developing well.

According to statistics from Google's Travel Search Trend Analysis tool, in 2023, international tourists' searches for Vietnam tourism increased by more than 75%, ranking 6th in the world, higher than Thailand (10th), Indonesia (11th), Malaysia (12th) and the Philippines (14th).

In 2023, Vietnam will receive a total of 105 million domestic tourists and 12.5 million to 13 million international tourists, far exceeding the target of 8 million set at the beginning of the year and already equivalent to 70% of 2019.

From August 15, 2023, Vietnam officially implements e-visas for citizens of all countries and regions with a maximum stay period of 90 days and a multiple-entry validity period, and a temporary stay period of up to 45 days for Vietnam's unilateral visa-free countries.

This policy is considered an important lever to boost the growth of international tourists in Vietnam.

In order to attract Chinese to travel to Vietnam, it is possible to exempt Chinese from visas, and once visa-free, it is bound to be a huge boost to Vietnam's tourism industry.

The second trump card: Vietnam's demographic dividend.

The most important reason why Vietnam is attracting more and more attention from global manufacturing capital is that it has a large number of cheap young laborers.

Population structure of Vietnam, photo source: Earth Knowledge Bureau.

According to the latest data released by Vietnam, in 2023, Vietnam's population will reach 103 million, an increase of 834,800 from the end of the previous year, making it the 15th most populous country in the world and one of the three countries in Southeast Asia with a population of 100 million.

Vietnam's demographic structure is advantageous, with a total population of 100 million, the median age is only 31 years old, and the proportion of young people under the age of 35 is as high as 56%.

Young and cheap Vietnamese are the core advantages of Vietnam to attract labor-intensive manufacturing, and it is also the basic condition for long-term and sustained economic growth such as urbanization and consumption upgrading within Vietnam.

This not only means that Vietnam has a vast domestic market but also has the ability to attract more FDI capital.

And in the short term, Vietnam's demographic dividend will not disappear, which is a strong driving force for Vietnam's economic development.

The last trump card is agriculture.

2023 can be called a record year for Vietnam's agricultural exports.

Let's not forget that Vietnam is a big agricultural country with abundant agricultural resources.

Vietnam's agricultural exports have always played an important role in Vietnam's economy and are one of the main sources of Vietnam's economy.

Vietnam's agricultural product processing industry has formed a complete industrial chain, including planting, purchasing, processing and sales.

In 2023, Vietnam's exports of agricultural, forestry and aquatic products reached US$53.01 billion, with a record trade surplus of US$12.07 billion, an increase of 43.7%, accounting for more than 42.5% of the national trade surplus.

Amid a general decline in other areas, agricultural exports increased by almost 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

The export of agricultural products brings a large amount of foreign exchange earnings to Vietnam.

The Vietnam HSBC Vietnam Export Report shows that Vietnam's agricultural products are rising in the face of adversity.

When you don't know:

In 2023, Vietnam's rice prices will remain the first, exporting about 8.29 million tons of rice and earning US$4.78 billion, which is a record high for more than 30 years of participating in rice exports.

In 2023, Vietnam's cashew nut exports accounted for 75% of the world's total.

In 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports surpassed Brazil's to become the world's No. 1.

In 2022, Vietnam's pepper exports ranked first in the world.

In 2023, Vietnam's pangasius market accounted for 52% of the global supply market.

In 2023, Vietnam will rank second in the world in terms of rubber exports.

······

So, don't look down on Vietnam!

In particular, Vietnam is far from so bad!

Looking at the world, Vietnam's low-cost advantage is still there, and it is still the first choice for the transfer of industrial chains in large countries.

4

Whether active or passive, Vietnam, at the moment, stands on the cusp of great power competition and global technology competition, and is hit by the dividends of the transfer of the global semiconductor industry chain, and Vietnam still has ports and coastlines;

Vietnam, which has been pushed forward by the times, is developing at the right time!

If you have been to Vietnam and stood on the streets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, you can clearly feel the vitality of Vietnam's economic development, and more and more foreigners are living, working and studying in Vietnam······

Although the road ahead is still bumpy, Vietnam is still worth looking forward to.

Vietnam is not big, and it can always create myths, which is not Vietnamese football is on the hot search again.

Finally, an era has an opportunity for an era, and an era has a way of living.

However, no matter how the world develops and changes, the essence and laws of its economy remain unchanged, and the more we understand the underlying laws, the more we can seize the opportunities.

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