Huawei's offensive is ferocious, and Huang Jenxun came to China to soothe customers

UT OF COMMON

/ Don't write mediocre stories /

The Nvidia A100 is limited, and the demand for Huawei's Ascend 910B is rising.

wen

/ He Yiran

edit

/ Liu Yu

After a few years, Huang visited Chinese mainland again.

On the evening of January 20, some media reported that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Nvidia's three offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen this week and attended the annual meeting in China. An Nvidia employee said, "Speaking at the meeting and giving a raffle to employees."

On the evening of the 20th, social media leaked videos and photos of Jensen Huang dancing in a Northeast cotton jacket vest at the annual meeting.

Indeed, 2023 is a "dream year" for NVIDIA.

Within a year, Nvidia's stock price soared 234%, its market value soared to $1 trillion, and its full-year revenue is expected to reach a record $58.8 billion, surpassing Intel and Samsung Electronics to become the world's No. 1 semiconductor company.

Heading into 2024, Nvidia still maintains its strong momentum. Not only did it launch a series of new AI applications and GPUs focusing on the PC side at the 2024 CES conference, which appeased the neglected console players this year and stabilized the C-end fans, but it also soared by $128 billion in just 9 trading days in the capital market, becoming the most eye-catching technology stock at the beginning of the year.

What's even more rare is that NVIDIA's extraordinary performance did not attract too many singing voices.

Despite the company's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, there is a general belief in the industry that Nvidia does not have a bubble in terms of growth opportunities and valuations. "Nvidia dominates the GPU market, has strong customer relationships, and is growing rapidly – it's hard to find too many loopholes in this boom," an investor said. ”

However, not having too many vulnerabilities does not mean not having them. While Chinese companies are trying to get out of the predicament caused by the "chip ban" in the United States, Nvidia is stumbling up by the ban and risks losing the huge market in Chinese mainland.

This time, Huang came to Chinese mainland "in a low-key manner", probably to appease customers.

01

Unwelcome "Specials"

At present, the total size of the AI chip market in Chinese mainland is about 7 billion US dollars, and Nvidia accounts for more than 90% of the market.

In the past two years, the U.S. government has successively announced banning rules for NVIDIA's high-end AI chips, including A100, A800, H100, H800, L40S and other products in the scope of export control.

As a shrewd businessman who moves between China and the West, "Old Huang" Jensen Huang naturally understands the timeless methodology of "policies at the top, and countermeasures at the bottom."

Nvidia immediately adjusted its ace product H100 and launched customized chips HGXH20, L20PCIe and L2PCIe for the Chinese market that meet U.S. regulations. Among them, HGXH20 is suitable for high-density servers and deep learning training, and L20PCIe and L2PCIe are suitable for workstations and desktops to meet the AI computing needs of ordinary users.

However, under many restrictions, the overall computing power of the special version chip is only about 20% of that of H100.

Originally, NVIDIA's idea was to use the company's signature and exclusive products to stabilize large customers in the Chinese market with special chips, and then wait and see whether the U.S. policy will be loosened. However, the market performance in the last three months proves that in the context of independent and controllable, Chinese buyers are not willing to take risks to pay for Nvidia's low-end chips.

According to media reports, people familiar with the matter revealed that Chinese companies have "lack interest" in Nvidia's special version of chips.

According to the report, Chinese companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, have been testing the performance of special version chips since November 2023. After trying out the special chips, the evaluation of Chinese companies is generally "'reduction' is too ruthless" and "the product is not cost-effective", and the major giants are not willing to be forced to choose products with backward performance in order to maintain the cooperative relationship with NVIDIA.

According to internal sources, a number of companies have made it clear to Nvidia that they will significantly reduce their orders this year.

According to statistics, the A800 and H800 in the domestic market have a certain stock of second-hand goods, but most of the buyers who ask the price now are not new users, but old users who want to replace them.

Generally speaking, the computing power cycle of a graphics card is about 1 to 2 weeks. In the past, if it burned out, you could apply for NVIDIA's official after-sales service and directly enjoy the product replacement service. However, after the ban of the U.S. authorities took effect, Nvidia could no longer provide the same chips, and the lack of after-sales service has become a thorny problem faced by major enterprises.

Since the U.S. regulatory authorities have clearly emphasized that they will regularly evaluate the chip export control policy, even if there is a possible loosening window, it may be overturned in the future, and the uncertainty risk is extremely high, so Chinese companies are pessimistic about the United States to relax the "chip ban" and gradually lose confidence in long-term cooperation with NVIDIA.

Large-scale procurement of chips and R&D expenditures for adaptation, hardware-based applications are a large investment for each company, which belongs to the technical route planning, once the finalization of the late change is very troublesome, if there is repeated tossing, even the industry giants may not be able to afford it.

According to reports, a number of Chinese technology companies are adjusting their business strategies, generally preferring to trade temporary pain for longer-term stability, and choose to cooperate with local Chinese companies with more guaranteed supply chains and more cost-effective products.

Some American analysts even believe that although Chinese companies will purchase Nvidia's special contribution chips in the short term, after the transition period for the completion of local chip substitution, Nvidia's China business will most likely become a victim of the U.S. "chip ban".

02

Huawei is ferocious

"America's clothes are patched up and patched everywhere. Why do we still have to make the new clothes we have made in the past few years according to that standard? We directly make better standards than those in the United States. In addition to China, the whole world will use it. ”

In July 2023, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei expressed confidence in China's creation in an interview. At a time when the public was still worried that Ren Zhengfei was using his optimistic spirit to stabilize the public's confidence, Huawei officially announced with a continuous launch of new products that the company had come out of the trough after 4 years of suffering.

"The Most Talk" has analyzed the performance of this Huawei Ascend 910B chip for large model training, and it has been confirmed by the media from a number of data center service providers in China that have adapted to Huawei Ascend 910B: Huawei Ascend 910B has reached nearly 80% of the performance level of NVIDIA A100. Data center service providers believe that this chip is the preferred "alternative" for domestic enterprises.

After the Nvidia A100 was restricted, the demand for Huawei's Ascend 910B soared, and buyers were even willing to buy it at a premium. According to the disclosure, the large-scale intelligent computing cluster infrastructure based on the Ascend 910B has been tested internally by a number of intelligent computing centers and telecom operators in China.

Among them, Baidu's order has attracted the most media attention. According to people familiar with the matter, Baidu placed an order for 1,600 Huawei Ascend 910B chips in August 2023, with a total order value of 450 million yuan. By the end of 2023, all chips have been delivered. Compared with the tens of thousands of chips required for large model training, 1,600 chips is not a large order, and it cannot be compared with Baidu's hundreds of millions of dollars in large orders for Nvidia, but the symbolic meaning of this order is quite important.

Baidu, which has AI as its long-term development direction, has long been a stable buyer and important partner of NVIDIA in the Chinese market. In 2021, the two parties also jointly held a press conference on "Co-creating the AI Metaverse".

In August 2023, Huawei announced that it would jointly launch the PaddlePaddle + Wenxin Large Model Hardware Ecosystem Co-creation Program with Baidu. This shows that Baidu's plan to purchase 910B is two months earlier than Nvidia's high-performance chips were fully restricted in the Chinese market, and it is at the moment when 910B has just disclosed its parameters, which may show that Baidu's turn to Huawei is not a passive response to the United States' "chip ban", but has long planned to consider the use of domestic chips, and trusts the performance of 910B, which has not been officially released at that time.

In the field of chips, design is important, but manufacturing is even more critical. We have learned from the supply chain that the production capacity of the Ascend 910B is being increased to meet the needs of Huawei and external customers after the process and yield issues are gradually resolved.

It's no wonder that in contrast to Ren's optimism, Huang appears pessimistic when talking about the "chip ban", repeatedly calling for "irreplaceable China's market" in front of the media, and frequently emphasizing that the company is "helpless."

From an economic point of view, Lao Huang's complaint about the "chip ban" is by no means a performance, but he really doesn't want to watch the big cake in the Chinese market being snatched away by others. TrendForce, a research agency, believes that the share of Nvidia's AI chips in China's cloud computing companies may decline to 50% in the next five years.

This would also explain why the media is so concerned about this news.

When the opponent thinks that Chinese companies are still in the throes of losing Nvidia, a Chinese company that is considered to be deeply tied to Nvidia has been prepared for a long time and has tried to join forces with Huawei. Such a misjudgment and discrepancy in expectations will naturally make the media question the "chip ban" of the US authorities: the restrictions that try to maintain the leading edge of the United States have instead given birth to the internal cooperation and development of Chinese companies, which directly harms the interests of American companies.

But since the ban can't be changed in the short term, Huang personally came to Chinese mainland to cheer up the team and communicate with customers to stabilize the situation.

03

The automotive chip market that cannot be lost again

In addition to major technology manufacturers, Huang also wants to appease the emotions of gamers and deepen his "friendship" with new energy vehicle companies.

Games are the basic disk of NVIDIA's fortune, but the ban of RTX4090 game graphics cards has disappointed Chinese mainland gamers, and it has been speculated for tens of thousands RTX4090 in the market. Nvidia has no intention of withdrawing from the Chinese mainland game market. At this year's CES show, Nvidia revealed that Chinese manufacturers such as NetEase Games and Tencent Games have begun to adopt its latest ACE (a technology platform for making virtual digital humans using generative AI) for development. In addition, Nvidia will launch a compliant version of the RTX4090 D gaming graphics card to the Chinese market, with about 10% fewer processor cores, and Nvidia says that the power consumption of the graphics card is close to 75% of that of the RTX 3090 Ti, and it will be available from January 2024.

It's unclear whether this "low-spec" RTX4090 D will satisfy gamers, but it's a high-performance gaming graphics card that NVIDIA can offer to the Chinese mainland market.

Gamers don't have a choice, and players in the field of new energy vehicles can still continue to cooperate with NVIDIA.

2023 is a year of explosion of new energy vehicles in the mainland, with the production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 9.587 million and 9.495 million units, respectively, an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, respectively, and new car sales reaching 31.6% of the total new car sales. At the same time, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's largest exporter of automobiles, among which the scale of new energy vehicle exports has increased significantly, and the mainland's new energy vehicle exports in 2023 will be 1.203 million units, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%.

As we all know, new energy vehicles are large users of chips, and with the rapid growth of the production, sales and export volume of new energy vehicles in the mainland, the demand for vehicle specification chips will also rise sharply. The automotive business is NVIDIA's fourth largest segment independent of data centers, gaming, and professional visualization, and is also seen by Huang as the company's new growth engine. At present, more than 80% of the autonomous driving chips in the Chinese market come from NVIDIA.

On January 9, Nvidia announced at the 2024 CES show in the United States that Ideal has chosen to purchase NVIDIA's DRIVE Thor centralized in-vehicle computing platform as the intelligent driving system platform for next-generation models. In addition, Nvidia also announced that Great Wall, Zeekr, and Xiaomi Auto have adopted the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin platform in their next-generation autonomous driving systems. DRIVE Thor is an automotive-grade system-on-chip (SoC) that supports autonomous driving, automated parking, driver and passenger monitoring, and an AI-powered cockpit.

In March last year, Nvidia announced that it would strengthen its partnership with BYD to expand the use of the centralized computing platform NVIDIA DRIVE Orin in 2024 to include multiple of BYD's next-generation models.

NVIDIA's automotive-grade system-on-chip is the strongest IC for intelligent driving, with the most installed units, but many competitors have also risen in this field. In addition to the Ascend 610/810 and Horizon's Journey 3/5 on Huawei's MDC platform, there are also Qualcomm's Snapdragon Ride Flex, Intel's Eye Q4/Eye Q5H, and Texas Instruments' TDA4VM.

The first half of new energy vehicles is electrification, and the second half is intelligence. In the intelligent competition, chips are undoubtedly the most important hardware, and most of the domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers use NVIDIA products. However, if the "chip ban" is extended to automotive-grade system-on-chip chips, which are in the same situation as AI chips, it will not only be a major blow to China's new energy vehicle companies, but also a heavy blow to NVIDIA.

In particular, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle companies has risen sharply to impact European and Japanese car companies, and the automobile industry is a pillar industry in developed countries, and the concern that car gauge chips may be blocked is not out of nowhere, and there is really a day, Nvidia can only be forced to obey and once again launch a "low-profile version" for the Chinese mainland market.

Like AI chips, Huawei's Ascend also has good competitiveness, and the Wenjie series of new energy vehicles use Huawei chips, and sales are gradually rising. Although other new energy vehicle companies may not want to use Ascend chips, if they can no longer use NVIDIA products, they can only try Ascend like a major technology manufacturer.

Therefore, "connecting and friendship" with Chinese car customers may also be one of the important purposes of Huang's trip.

According to reports, Nvidia will start mass production of chips for Huate in the second quarter of 2024. U.S. officials also said in an official manner that the current policy has not blocked cross-border commercial cooperation, but only made minor adjustments, and allowing the export of special versions of chips has shown a "softening attitude" towards sales to China.

Previously, Nvidia's chief financial officer Kress admitted to the media that sales in the Asian market will "decline in scale", but he believes that the strong performance of other markets can fill the shortfall. However, the attitude of Chinese buyers has forced Nvidia to significantly reduce the mass production scale of special version chips, and the shrinkage of Nvidia's China business this year is likely to exceed the company's expectations.

The "chip ban" is the lingering shadow under the blue sky of Nvidia's dream. As an American company, the U.S. authorities did not give Nvidia a chance to make other decisions, only provided mandatory options.

In the limited space, Huang can only make moves that are in his best interest. Although the ban has greatly restricted Nvidia and impacted domestic companies, it has also made room and time for domestic substitution.

Of course, there is still a long way to go from NVIDIA's lead, and the road will not be easy. Before domestic chip manufacturers have completely formed a competitive advantage, Huang Jenxun can still dance easily.

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