U.S. stocks close: The chip stock index rose 4%, the S&P hit a record high, and AMD rose nearly 20% on Thursday
The day after TSMC's earnings report, chip stocks continued to rise strongly, taking the lead in supporting the U.S. stock market higher, the S&P refreshed the all-time high set two years ago, the Dow Jones closed at a record high after a week, and the two chip giants Nvidia and AMD, which benefited from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, continued to hit new all-time stock price highs for consecutive days, with AMD surging nearly 20% in a week with only four transactions.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Friday that cooling inflation could be beneficial to the discussion of interest rate cuts, while stressing that it is too early to judge when to cut interest rates, and that the Fed will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, and the path of rate cuts will depend on data. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he wants to make sure that inflation does fall below the Fed's target of 2% before cutting interest rates. San Francisco Fed President Daly said it was too early to consider a rate cut, and that more evidence of a sustained decline in inflation to 2% was needed before turning to easing. These three were the last Fed officials to make a public statement before the quiet period of this month's Fed meeting.
In the first two trading days of this week, speeches by Fed Governor Waller and other officials have poured cold water on market expectations for a recent interest rate cut, partly causing major U.S. stock indexes to fall for several days. This week, both the market's expectation of the probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in March and the expected magnitude of the rate cut for the whole of 2024 are declining. However, the U.S. stock market eventually closed at a new high with the support of technology stocks, especially chip stocks. The Dow Jones relied on Friday's sharp rise, and it was not until midday on Friday that it reversed its weekly decline and rose in a thrilling manner.
This week, the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in March and the expected magnitude of a rate cut for the whole of 2024 have decreased
Strong economic data such as retail sales released this week suggests that the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively as the market expects, but the view that Fed officials will start easing monetary policy this year is fueling risk appetite. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, commented that the leader of the US stock rally in 2023 is once again the top choice for traders, and investors are re-holding seven blue-chip technology stocks such as growth stocks, technology stocks, AI concept stocks and Nvidia.
In early trading, the University of Michigan reported that the consumer and inflation rate in the coming year unexpectedly did not stabilize, but fell to the lowest point since 2020 at 2.9%. After the release of the data, U.S. Treasury prices rebounded and yields retreated intraday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a new high since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting last month for four consecutive days, and consumer inflation expectations gave up gains after the announcement, but climbed all week, reflecting a cooling trend in interest rate cut expectations.
In the second two days of this week, U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries were out of touch, with U.S. bond prices giving up gains since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting last month
In the currency market, the dollar index failed to repeat the intraday rally after Thursday's unemployment data, and the decline extended after the release of consumer inflation expectations, continuing to fall from a one-month high set on Wednesday. However, this week, when Fed officials' speeches and economic data weighed on expectations of recent rate cuts, the cumulative gains since the beginning of the year were extended. The yen hit a new intraday low since late November, and the decline in the United States gradually erased after the announcement of inflation expectations, and the decline did not change throughout the week. Japan's core CPI growth for December hit a one-and-a-half-year low on Friday, while markets expect next week's Bank of Japan meeting to remain super-loose unchanged.
Among commodities, gold continued to rebound, supported by a pullback in the US dollar, but failed to repeat last Friday's dramatic comeback that erased the previous four days' losses this week as Fed officials weighed on expectations of interest rate cuts, marking its worst weekly performance since early December. In the oil market, tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of escalation, according to CCTV, Israel launched an attack on southern Lebanon, the Israeli army said air strikes on Lebanese Allah targets, although international crude oil failed to hold on to gains on Friday, but the overall rebound momentum throughout the week did not change. The situation in the Red Sea and the Middle East continued to boost oil prices this week, and the U.S. Department of Energy's larger-than-expected decline in crude inventories last week was also a big driver. Concerns about the outlook for oil demand caused by some economic data and a stronger dollar are factors weighing on oil prices.
In the first two weeks of the year, U.S. natural gas, which rose by double digits every week, fell endlessly this week, giving up all the gains since the new year, falling more than 20% for the week. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the 30% year-on-year increase in U.S. natural gas demand last week was mainly due to residential and commercial demand, electricity consumption and industrial demand, however, domestic gas supply in the United States has been 11% higher than the average of the last five years.
The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose more than 1%, and the Dow, Nasdaq 100, Microsoft, and chip stock indexes all hit record highs
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher for two consecutive days, and their gains all expanded to more than 1% at midday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned lower in early trading before continuing to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite holding gains throughout the day. When the daily high was refreshed at midday, the Dow rose more than 460 points, or more than 1.2%. The S&P rose nearly 1.3%, updating its all-time intraday high set on January 4, 2022. The Nasdaq refreshed its daily high at the end of the session.
In the end, the three major indexes closed higher for two consecutive days. The S&P closed up 1.23% at 4,839.81, updating its all-time closing high set on January 3, 2022. The Nasdaq closed up 1.7%, and the S&P both recorded their biggest gains since the day Nvidia released its new products on January 8 for two consecutive days, at 15,310.97 points, refreshing the closing high since January 4, 2022. The Dow closed up 395.19 points, or 1.05%, the biggest gain since Dec. 13 at 37,863.80, refreshing the all-time high set last Thursday.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.95%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed up 2.8%, both hitting record closing highs for two consecutive days, and NDXTMC rose 3.97% for the week. The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, turned lower at the beginning of the session, turned higher at midday, and closed up 1.08%, falling back after stopping a four-day losing streak on Thursday and falling to the lowest closing level since December 12, which was refreshed on Wednesday.
With Thursday and Friday's sharp gains, the three major U.S. stock indexes were able to accumulate gains this week, but small-cap stock indexes still fell
In this week, which has only four trading days, the Nasdaq rose 2.26%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.86%, and the S&P rose 1.17%, all rising for two consecutive weeks, and the Dow rose 0.72%, falling after rebounding last week, and falling for the second week in the first three weeks of January. The Russell 2000, which fell slightly last week, fell 0.34% for four consecutive weeks.
Among the Dow constituents, United Health closed down nearly 2.5%, the largest decline for two consecutive days, while after Atlas Airlines reported another Boeing plane failure, Boeing fell more than 1% in early trading, and then turned higher, closing up 1.6%, and still down 1.2% this week.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only consumer staples, which fell more than 0.3%, and utilities, which fell more than 0.1%, closed lower on Friday, led by the IT sector where chip stocks are located, which rose nearly 2.4%, and communication services, finances, and real estate, where Google and Meta are located, both rose 1.6%, and real estate rose nearly 1%. A total of six sectors fell this week, utilities fell 3.7%, energy fell nearly 3.1%, real estate fell more than 2%, materials fell more than 1%, consumer staples fell about 1%, medical fell 0.7%, and among the five sectors that rose, IT rose 4.3%, communication services rose nearly 2%, financials rose 0.9%, consumer staples rose 0.5%, and industrials rose nearly 0.3%.
Chip stocks generally rose for two consecutive days and outperformed the market for two consecutive days, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX both rising more than 4% at midday, closing up about 4% and 3.9% respectively, refreshing the closing record high set on December 27, and rising about 8% and 7.9% respectively this week. Among individual stocks, AMD closed up 7.1% after a short-term decline in early trading, up about 18.9% on Thursday, Nvidia closed up about 4.2%, up 8.7% this week, and AMD hit a record high in intraday and closing for two consecutive days;
Most of the leading tech stocks closed higher. Tesla almost fell against the market for the second day in a row, and then turned down after the beginning of the session, falling more than 1% in early trading, and turned up slightly at noon, closing up nearly 0.2%, still close to the low level since November 1, which fell for two consecutive days, and fell nearly 3.2% this week.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, after CEO Zuckerberg announced a major restructuring of the company's AI department, Facebook's parent company Meta closed up nearly 2%, rising for three consecutive days, hitting a record closing high; Google's parent company Alphabet closed up about 2%, refreshing a two-year closing high; Microsoft closed up 1.2%, rising for two consecutive days and hitting a record closing record high for two days; Apple, which rose more than 3% on Thursday, closed up nearly 1.6%, rising for two consecutive days. Continuing to refresh its closing high since December 29, Amazon closed up 1.2%, rising for two consecutive days to its highest level since April 2022, while Netflix fell more than 1% in early trading, closing down 0.5%, retreating after stopping a three-day losing streak on Thursday.
Seven major technology stocks, including Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, hit record highs this week
AI概念股集体大涨，跑赢大盘。 C3.ai（AI）涨超3%， SoundHound.ai（SOUN）、Palantir（PLTR）涨超2%，Adobe（ADBE）涨3%，BigBear.ai（BBAI）涨超6%。
Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks continued to fall, and the intraday decline narrowed, and some turned up. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 2.5% in early trading and closed down 0.6%, falling for five consecutive trading days, continuing to close at a new low in more than a year, and falling 7.1% this week. The three new car-making forces underperformed the market, with Xpeng Motors, which fell more than 6% at the beginning of the session, closing down 2.3%, NIO, which fell more than 4% in early trading, closing down 3.5%, and Li Auto, which had fallen 4% at the beginning of the session, closing down 2.3%. Among other stocks, by the close, Station B fell 3%, New Oriental fell nearly 3%, Baidu fell nearly 1%, Tencent Fan Single fell 0.8%, while NetEase rose 2.5%, Alibaba rose 2%, JD.com, and Pinduoduo rose more than 1%.
The bank stock index rose in unison, outperforming the market. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), a regional banking index that fell for seven consecutive days, closed up 2.5%, returning to last Friday's closing level, with zero gains and losses for the week, while the regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up 2.3%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed up 2.5%, both rising for two consecutive days to the highest level since last Thursday, January 11, up 1% and nearly 1.5% respectively for the week.
Among the volatile stocks, the merger and acquisition of JetBlue plan was blocked by antitrust concerns of U.S. judges, and the low-cost airline Spirit Airlines (SAVE), which fell sharply for three consecutive days, reconfirmed that it still supports the merger, and its stock price rose more than 20% at the beginning of the session, but it will still fall this week because it fell by more than 60% in the previous three days; Beverage company Celsius Holdings (CELH) fell more than 10% intraday after Bank of America downgraded its rating to neutral from buy and saw uncertainty about its sales momentum, car rental giant Hertz Rental Car (HTZ) fell 6% intraday after Jefferies downgraded its rating from buy to hold, expecting its profitability to take a short-term hit due to electric vehicle maintenance costs, and announced that it would lay off 13% of its global workforce. Household goods e-commerce company Wayfair (W) rose more than 10% in intraday trading after it became the latest action to reduce management, that is, cut costs, and after announcing that it would cut production of the F-150 Lightning, a pure electric pickup truck, Ford Motor (F) fell 4% in early trading, turned higher at the end of the morning, and rose more than 1% in midday trading.
In European stocks, the pan-European stock index, which ended a three-day losing streak on Thursday, returned to the decline. The Euro Stoxx 600 is starting to approach its closing lows since December 5, which were refreshed on Wednesday. Stock indexes of major European countries mostly fell on Friday, and German, French, Italian and Spanish stocks that rebounded on Thursday retreated, while the UK's retail sales in December reported on Friday fell 3.2% month-on-month, the largest decline in nearly three years, triggering recession fears and partially offsetting the impact of the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations.
Among the sectors, the underlying resources in which mining stocks are located closed down nearly 1.5%, industrials fell 0.9%, Swedish engineering group fell 3.7% due to the fact that its operations in China were scrutinized by two U.S. congressional committees, while technology bucked the market and closed up 0.5%, like U.S. stocks, European chip stocks also performed well, with Dutch lithography giant ASML rising 1.5%.
The STOXX 600 index fell more than 1% this week, retreating after a slight rebound last week. Stock indexes of various countries fell, British stocks fell for three consecutive weeks, Western stocks fell for two weeks, both fell more than 2%, German stocks and French stocks that rebounded last week fell, and Italian stocks stopped rising for two consecutive weeks. Among the sectors, interest-rate sensitive real estate fell nearly 4.7% to lead the decline, followed by basic resources fell 4.5%, oil and gas, which fell the most last week, fell more than 3% for the second consecutive week, while technology rose 2.5%.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit a new one-month high intraday before giving up gains The yield on two-year German bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds rose more than 20 basis points in a week
European government bond prices were mixed, with short-term yields still falling and yields climbing. By the end of the bond market, the UK 10-year benchmark yield closed at 3.92%, roughly unchanged on Thursday, the 2-year UK bond yield closed at 4.29%, up about 2 basis points on the day, the benchmark 10-year German bund yield closed at 2.34%, down about 1 basis point on the day, off the six-week high of 2.35% on Thursday, and the 2-year German bond yield closed at 2.73%, up about 5 basis points on the day and at the highest level since December 1.
European Treasury yields rose this week, reflecting the European Central Bank's rhetoric repeatedly weighing on market expectations of interest rate cuts, as well as the faster-than-expected growth of UK CPI in December. JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Friday postponed its expected start of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts this year from June to September. The 10-year British bond has risen by about 13 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year German bond has risen by about 16 basis points, rising for four consecutive weeks, and the yield on the 2-year British bond and the German bond that fell last week have rebounded, rising by about 15 basis points and 22 basis points respectively.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell below 4.13% in European stocks, and then rebounded, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee accelerated after his speech, and U.S. stocks rose 4.20% in early trading, refreshing the high since the first day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 13 for three consecutive days, rising about 5 basis points in the day, and the U.S. consumer inflation expectations continued to give up intraday gains after the announcement, and about 4.12% at the end of the bond market , fell by about 2 basis points during the day, fell back after rising for three consecutive days, and rose by about 18 basis points this week, erasing the decline of about 11 basis points last week.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, was about to reach a daily low of 4.34% in European stocks, and before the announcement of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, U.S. stocks were close to 4.42% in early trading, refreshing the high since January 5, rising nearly 7 basis points in the day, and giving up some of the gains after the release of the data, which fell below 4.39% and was about 4.38% at the end of the bond market , which rose about 3 basis points during the day, rebounded after retreating on Thursday, and rose about 24 basis points in this week, when only Thursday was a one-day decline, and like the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, it rebounded after retreating last week, and rose for the second week in the last six weeks.
Treasury yields of all maturities rose this week, with ultra-long-term Treasury yields rising the most
After the U.S. inflation expectations data, the U.S. dollar index refreshed its daily low, fell from a one-month high, and still rose for three consecutive weeks
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, generally maintained a downward trend, European stocks fell below 103.30 in early trading, down more than 0.2% in the day, and U.S. stocks rose above 103.546 at the beginning of the day to refresh the daily high, and the short-term rose slightly, and the decline continued to expand after the announcement of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, falling below 103.30 at midday, and U.S. stocks fell about 0.3% during the day when they refreshed their daily lows after closing , falling from Wednesday's upper 103.70 and refreshing for two consecutive days since December 13.
By the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, the U.S. dollar index was below 103.30, down nearly 0.3% during the day, up more than 0.8% this week, and the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against ten other currencies, fell more than 0.2%, falling from the high set on Wednesday since December 12, and rose nearly 0.9% this week, and the U.S. dollar index has not risen for two consecutive days after five consecutive days, and is still rising for three consecutive weeks, and continues to rise in the first three weeks of 2024.
Despite the volatility on Thursday and Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been up this week
Among the non-U.S. currencies, the yen hit a new low in more than seven weeks during the session, despite the rebound since then, it still fell for three consecutive weeks this week, the dollar rose to 148.80 against the yen in the Asian market, refreshing the high since November 28, up more than 0.4% in the day, European stocks turned down before the market, and the U.S. stocks turned up more than once in the intraday, and the U.S. stocks were roughly flat at Thursday's level when the U.S. stock market closed The pound against the dollar rose above 1.2710 in the Asian market to refresh the daily high, and the European stock market has turned down before the European stock market opens, and the U.S. stock market fell below 1.2670 in early trading, and then continued to rise, the U.S. stock closed slightly above 1.2700, almost the same level as the same period on Thursday, and did not approach the low since December 13, which fell below 1.2600 on Wednesday.
The offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar in the Asian market at the beginning of the refresh daily low to 7.2179, after quickly turned up, to maintain the rally, European stocks before the market had regained 7.20 to refresh the daily high to 7.1965, up 214 points from the daily low, and then quickly fell to 7.20, the US stock market fell below 7.21 in early trading, the US consumer inflation expectations after the announcement of the gains expanded, continuing to break away from Wednesday's fall below 7.23 set a low since November 17. At 5:59 on January 20, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.2036 yuan against the US dollar, up 125 points from the end of New York on Thursday, rebounding after falling for two consecutive days, and still falling 143 points this week, falling for three consecutive weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) turned up in intraday trading on Friday, the U.S. stock fell below $40,400 at noon, a refreshed low in more than a month, fell more than $1,700 within 24 hours, fell more than 4%, and then continued to rise, and the end of the session was refreshed at $42,000 to refresh the daily high, up more than $1,800 from the daily low, up more than 4%, and the U.S. stock closed above $41,700, up more than 1% in the last 24 hours , still far from the high since December 2021 set by the Bitcoin spot ETF at $49,000 on the first day of listing last Thursday, and has fallen more than 4% in the last seven days.
Bitcoin rebounded in midday trading on Friday, still far from the two-year high set on Thursday's first day of listing for spot ETFs
Crude oil fell to a three-week high and still rose throughout the week, and U.S. natural gas fell more than 20% in a week
International crude oil futures turned lower several times in intraday trading on Friday. When U.S. stocks refreshed their daily highs in early trading, U.S. WTI crude oil rose above $74.90, up more than 1.1% on the day, and Brent crude rose above $79.70, up 0.8% on the day. At midday, U.S. oil fell below $73.20, down 1.2% on the day, and Brent oil was near $78.30, down nearly 1% on the day.
In the end, WTI February crude oil futures, which fell for two days, closed down $0.67, or 0.90%, at $73.41 a barrel, while Brent March crude futures, which rebounded on Thursday, closed down $0.54, or 0.68%, at $78.56 a barrel, and U.S. oil both fell to their highest closing level since December 27 set on Thursday.
This week, U.S. oil rose about 1%, and cloth oil rose 0.34%, rebounding after falling back last week, mainly due to Thursday's rise, when U.S. oil closed up more than 2% and cloth oil rose nearly 1.6%. In the 15 weeks since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, this week is the sixth week of crude oil gains.
U.S. WTI crude oil rose throughout the week, and Friday's volatility returned to the range of shocks since the beginning of the year
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures. NYMEX February gasoline futures, which rose for five days, closed down 0.95% at $2.1628 per gallon, falling to Thursday's four-day streak since January 3, up 2% this week, rising for two weeks after falling for three consecutive weeks, and NYMEX February natural gas futures closed down 6.60% at $2.5190/MMBtu, the lowest since December 20, falling for four consecutive days, down about 24% this week, ending a four-week winning streak and rising more than 10% every week in the first two weeks of January.
London Xi stopped seven consecutive rises, London copper ended a four-week streak of declines, London nickel hit a new low in the past two years, gold rebounded for several days, and still hit the largest weekly decline in six weeks
Base metals futures in London were mixed on Friday. London copper and London lead rose for two consecutive days, respectively continuing to break away from the two-month and one-week lows, and London aluminum, which fell for two consecutive days, bid farewell to the five-week low. London nickel erased Thursday's rebound gains, closing below $16,100, a new low since the end of March 2021, London zinc closed slightly lower, falling for four consecutive days, and three days to refresh the low since mid-December, and London Xi, which rose for seven consecutive trading days, fell to a high since the end of December.
Base metals were also mixed this week. The leading London tin rose 2.7%, up for two consecutive weeks, London lead rose 0.7%, up for three consecutive weeks, London copper rose more than 0.1%, ending a four-week losing streak, while London aluminum fell 2.4%, London zinc fell nearly 2.1%, London nickel fell nearly 1.9%, all fell for three consecutive weeks.
Gold futures in New York maintained a rally throughout the day for two consecutive days, and U.S. stocks rose to a daily high of $2041.9 before the market, rising about 1% during the day, and then gradually recovering more than half of the gains. Finally, COMEX gold futures for February delivery closed up 0.38% at $2,029.3 an ounce, continuing to move away from Wednesday's new closing low since December 13.
Gold futures rebounded on Thursday and Friday, but as Tuesday and Wednesday fell more than 1% for consecutive days, the biggest decline since January 3, it still fell 1.09% this week, and fell back after a slight rebound last week, the largest weekly decline since December 8. In the 15 weeks since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, gold futures have fallen for three weeks, and this week is the second week of January after the first week of January, and the week ending December 8 has fallen.
The U.S. stock market rose above $2,039 to refresh the daily high, and continued to break away from the intraday low since December 13, when it fell below $2,002 on Wednesday, up 0.8% during the day, and the U.S. stock fell to $2,030 in early trading, and the U.S. stock closed below $2,029, up nearly 0.3% during the day, and fell more than 1% this week like gold futures.
Spot gold fell more than 1% this week, but rebounded in the second half of the week, standing above $2,000