At the ongoing World Economic Forum 2024 in Davos, Switzerland, an unknown pathogen named "X" is the focus of heated discussions among global leaders and industry leaders. In a statement, the WHO said "X" is a "hypothetical emerge" pathogen that causes a global pandemic and could cause 20 times as many deaths as the coronavirus. CBS said on the 17th that although the specific existence of this pathogen is not yet known, out of concern about a possible future pandemic, researchers, scientists and experts from various countries hope to actively develop response plans. "Experts warn that it may appear faster than we think".
Viruses under the microscope
What exactly is "X"?
The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said in a press release that at a workshop on the theme of "Ready for X" held on the 17th, a panel led by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus discussed "If we are to prepare for a more deadly pandemic, we need to make new efforts to meet the needs of the health system to meet the multiple challenges of the future" and other related topics. Brazilian Health Minister Nicaea Trindad Lima, pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca's chairman Michel de Marré and other health figures also participated in the seminar.
As early as 2015, the WHO developed a "blueprint for epidemic prevention action research and development" in an effort to shorten the time interval between the detection of a virus outbreak and the approval of a vaccine for use, according to the British newspaper The Independent. According to the report, the most dangerous emerging infectious diseases are in the spotlight because of the lack of prevention methods, and the WHO updates the list of less than 10 high-risk infectious diseases every year. Since 2018, pathogen "X" has been classified as "the world's most serious infectious disease requiring priority concern", along with major infectious diseases such as the new coronavirus, Ebola virus, Zika virus, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Middle East respiratory syndrome and severe acute respiratory syndrome. WHO has prioritized R&D efforts in the context of pandemics caused by these pathogens, stating that the plan "explicitly seeks to achieve early, cross-cutting R&D readiness, which is also relevant for unknown disease X".
In 2022, the WHO convened 300 scientists to investigate 25 virus families and bacteria to create a "list of pathogens that have the potential to cause serious damage," CBS said, stressing the need for more research on them. Among them is the "X" pathogen, "which represents a serious international epidemic caused by a (unknown) pathogen". Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the World Economic Forum in Davos on the 17th that the new crown pneumonia may be the first "X" disease we encounter, and scientists are actively learning and summarizing the experience of fighting it.
Regarding the original intention of the WHO to set up the "X" pathogen, Wei Sheng, a professor at the School of Public Health and Emergency Management of Southern University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times that the WHO's establishment of the "X" pathogen is intended to cause countries around the world to attach great importance to the unknowable, harmful and potentially sudden infectious diseases. During the pandemic, we can see that the global cooperation and communication mechanism within the framework of WHO has been greatly damaged, which has made it increasingly difficult to share information and coordinate resources, and the relevant capacity of WHO has been declining. Therefore, WHO's initiative to establish the "X" pathogen can be seen as an effort to strengthen relevant global cooperation, and it remains to be seen whether it will be effective.
Where does the "X" pathogen come from?
Globally, the number of potential pathogens is enormous, and resources for disease research and development are limited, the WHO said in a statement.
The Independent said scientists don't know exactly what the "X" pathogen will be. Many experts believe that it may be a novel coronavirus or a new type of flu. Dr. Thomas Russo, an infectious disease expert at the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University at Buffalo, said in an interview that the concept of the "X" pathogen is one of the lessons we have learned from the pandemic. "As humans break the boundaries between humans and other species through live animal markets and deforestation, unknown viruses have entered the human world, and we need to continue monitoring and research, and improve biosecurity around the world," he said. He warns that "X" could also be an entirely new pathogen that has not even been found in animals.
Scientists generally agree that the highly transmissible "X" pathogen "is almost certain to exist" given the sheer size of the global population of bacteria, viruses and other microorganisms and the rate at which they mutate. Dr. Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said: "Some strains of the virus have a very high lethality rate and can develop the ability to spread effectively from person to person. He said it is likely that the "X" pathogen is a respiratory virus that has even been transmitted from animal to animal, but not yet to humans. "It could come from bats that carry a lot of unknown viruses, or birds that carry the avian influenza virus, or it could come from other types of animals such as pigs," he said. ”
In addition, the melting of permafrost due to global warming may awaken a large number of "zombie viruses". For example, in 2023, a team of French, German, and Russian scientists isolated and resurrected several ancient viruses from the permafrost of Siberia, one of which was a giant virus found in a 27,000-year-old permafrost sample containing a large amount of mammoth hair. French scientist Michel Clavery said, "Every time we look at a sample of permafrost, we find an unknown virus, which is almost a certainty, and we can always find some infectious virus in the permafrost." "As the permafrost melts, organisms that have been buried underground for thousands of years will continue to be exposed, potentially releasing more unknown viruses in the future.
Regarding whether the "X" pathogen that the WHO is worried about will inevitably appear, Wei Sheng believes that from the perspective of the development law of the virus, the emergence of pathogens like "X" is more likely, "Once this virus hits, it is very likely to be like the new crown virus when it first appeared, completely beyond our current level of understanding." Wei Sheng analyzed that from the perspective of the type of virus, it is likely to be a respiratory virus transmitted through respiratory droplets or aerosols, because this virus is more likely to cause large-scale transmission.
Of particular concern to scientists is that the global pandemic outbreak caused by the "X" pathogen could be larger than previous pandemics in the face of increasing globalization. According to Scientific American, cholera was originally an endemic epidemic circulating only in the Ganges Delta region of India, and it was not until the arrival of British colonists in India in the early 19th century that it began a global pandemic with ocean-going commerce. The Spanish flu of 1918, which killed between 25 million and 100 million people worldwide, followed the spread of ocean-going vessels in different countries. Today, global communication is much more frequent than it was a hundred years ago, so when a highly contagious disease emerges, it spreads at an alarming rate.
Can it reduce the probability of "X" appearing?
Preparing for the next outbreak and developing measures and contingency plans to prevent a recurrence of the health system collapse that occurred in many countries in 2020 is now a key goal for WHO.
Foreign media also listed some symptoms that may be caused by infection with the "X" pathogen, such as fever, muscle cramps, fainting, headache, nausea, diarrhea and sore throat. Sharp fluctuations in mood, irritability, drowsiness, anxiety and symptoms such as abdominal pain and an enlarged liver are also of concern, the WHO warns.
Is there a way to reduce the probability of the emergence of this highly fatal "X" pathogen? Wei Sheng believes that it is difficult to have a definite means to reduce the probability of the occurrence of this infectious disease, and we can only take precautions and improve our own response capabilities, such as establishing a monitoring network covering the entire process of pathogen infection from animals to people, further strengthening the construction of a high-level detection and identification means and a high-level disease control and prevention and control team, increasing medical resources that can be quickly mobilized, and enhancing the ability to rapidly develop vaccines and drugs. "These measures need to be implemented over a long-term and sustained basis, and should not be temporary measures when things come to an end."
Foreign media also said in their reports that by taking some preventive measures, the impact of the upcoming epidemic can be mitigated and the international community's preparedness for emerging infectious diseases can be strengthened. This includes investing in surveillance networks, improving people's health, promoting the use of antibiotics, strengthening health care systems, encouraging international cooperation, and developing prevention plans to avert the next pandemic.
The WHO warns that the "X" pathogen could cause up to 50 million deaths. Now that Covid has become a common and recurring epidemic, people in the UK healthcare sector are turning their attention to "preparing for a possible new epidemic 'X'". Some British scientists have said that a potential new vaccine to suppress the pandemic could be developed within 100 days. In August last year, researchers at the University of Oxford announced that they were studying how a vaccine developed for the coronavirus could be used against the "X" pathogen. They will also look at how to develop other vaccines to defend against potential future threats.
A public health expert told the Global Times that in the long run, strengthening international information exchange and carrying out cooperative prevention and control are the fundamental guarantees for fighting the "X" pathogen. Improving the efficiency of vaccine development is one of the ways to achieve an effective response.