In the past five years, the pre-conference market review shows that the small-cap stock index is among the top gainers, and the historical record in these directions is good
Finance Associated Press, January 15 (edited by Zilong), recently, many places in China are holding "local two sessions" one after another, and the national two sessions will also be held in Beijing in early March. As one of the more important meetings for the market, the policy direction of the two sessions has always attracted the attention of investors, and under this influence, A-shares often set off a "two sessions" market on the eve of the two sessions.
The local two sessions were held intensively, focusing on a number of core points
Recently, a number of provinces have finalized the time of the 2024 provincial two sessions, and most of them are scheduled to be held in mid-to-late January. Among them, Yunnan, Hebei, Chongqing and other places were held earlier, on January 17, January 21, January 21, and January 21, and Tianjin, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Shanghai and other places will also be held later. At present, the market is paying close attention to the main line of work conveyed by the local two sessions, and at the same time, it is also expected to become a key word to look forward to the national two sessions.
Guosheng Securities recently pointed out in a research report that in 2024, more than half of the provinces and cities have clarified the time of the "two sessions", mostly in mid-to-late January. Among them, Tibet, Yunnan, Hebei and Chongqing will be the first to be held, and it is necessary to focus on the GDP targets of each province and city (especially in Beijing, Shanghai and other places, mainly depending on whether it exceeds 5%), industrial policies, reform policies, regional policies and other deployments. In addition, Henan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places continue to deploy the economic work at the beginning of the year, but the focus is different, such as Henan focuses on expanding domestic demand, Guangzhou focuses on reform and opening up and urban village transformation, and Shenzhen focuses on scientific and technological innovation to lead industrial construction.
In recent years, the pre-meeting market review shows that these directions have performed better
Generally speaking, affected by policy expectations, A-shares often usher in large fluctuations on the eve of the two sessions, and many funds choose to bet on relevant policies and gamble. Judging from the historical market in recent years, in the early stage of the two sessions, the market mostly showed a more positive performance, and the prosperity of some tracks was also relatively high. In terms of specific data, based on the market statistics of the past five years (2019 to 2023), the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an increase in the first month of the two sessions, with an average monthly increase of nearly 4.58%.
In terms of the other major market indexes, in the first month of the two sessions, the small-cap stock index represented by the CNI 2000 and CSI 1000 was more active than the large-cap stock index, with an average monthly increase of nearly 7.11% and 6.69%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 index rose relatively late, with an average increase of nearly 3%, while the ChiNext index only recorded an average increase of nearly 2.4%. Overall, in the first month of the two sessions in the past five years, small-cap stocks have slightly outperformed large-cap stocks.
Note: The rise and fall of major market indices in the past 5 years (2019 to 2023) in the first month of the two sessions and the probability of rise
In terms of industries, according to the statistics of the past five years, the average increase in the coal, communications, environmental protection, steel, social services, computers, building decoration, public utilities, non-ferrous metals, and media sectors in the first month of the two sessions was in the front, while the average increase in the automobile, power equipment, food and beverage, household appliances, and banking sectors was relatively low. In addition, if calculated by sub-sectors, tourism and scenic spots, diversified finance, coal mining, general steel, aerospace equipment, steel smelting raw materials, hotel catering, communication services, industrial metals, oil service engineering and other sectors are more active.
Note: In the past 5 years (2019 to 2023), the rise and fall of various industry sectors (Shenwan level 1) in the first month of the two sessions
Note: In the past 5 years (2019 to 2023), the top 20 sectors with the highest gains in the first month of the two sessions
(Finance Associated Press Zilong)