The first 3 trillion provincial capital was born

Author: Yu Fei

01

Guangzhou and Chongqing were promoted at the same time

In November last year, I wrote an article titled "Great Expansion! These 6 Cities Are Going to Be Promoted!", in which I emphasized that the end of 2023 will be a big year for Chinese cities to be promoted.

First, the trillion-dollar GDP city will add two new members, Yantai and Changzhou.

Second, the 2 trillion level city will also likely usher in two new members, Hangzhou and Wuhan.

Third, Chongqing and Guangzhou are likely to be promoted to the 3 trillion level.

Last week, Changzhou officially announced that its GDP exceeded one trillion. This issue has been specially written last Thursday "Official Announcement! The 25th trillion GDP city was born" and analyzed it.

Recently, Chongqing and Guangzhou also officially announced that the 3 trillion GDP club has ushered in an expansion and added two fierce generals.

Chongqing officials revealed in their New Year's message that in 2023, Chongqing's total economic output will exceed 3 trillion yuan for the first time.

Guangzhou also revealed at the two sessions that Guangzhou's GDP is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan in 2023, and the total retail sales of consumer goods and the total import and export value of goods will both exceed 1 trillion yuan for the third consecutive year.

Next, we will wait for the official announcement of Yantai, Wuhan and Hangzhou, and it is not surprising that these three cities will also be successfully promoted.

For example, Yantai, judging from the data of the first three quarters, the probability of Yantai's promotion is greater than that of Changzhou.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Yantai, Changzhou Bureau of Statistics

Judging from the GDP data in the first three quarters of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2022, it is logical that Chongqing and Guangzhou will be promoted to 3 trillion.

Hangzhou and Wuhan only need to maintain the current growth rate, and there is no suspense.

Mapping: City Finance: Data: Bureau of Statistics of Cities

On November 7 last year, at the 5th World Hangzhou Entrepreneurs Conference hosted by the Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government with the theme of "Standing at the Forefront of the Tide and Enlightening the Future with Wisdom", Hangzhou officials clearly revealed:

This year (referring to 2023), Hangzhou's GDP is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan, the siphon effect of resource elements will be stronger, the gathering of science and technology, industry and talents will be faster, and the momentum of high-quality development will be stronger.

02

Guangzhou and Chongqing have built their own moats

In fact, it is not unusual for Guangzhou and Chongqing to be promoted to 3 trillion, after all, the GDP of the two cities at the end of 2022 is already approaching 3 trillion.

The promotion of these two cities is as natural as dew drops sliding from lotus leaves.

However, the promotion of 3 trillion yuan will help both cities consolidate their rankings, and both have built their own moats.

Guangzhou, with a GDP exceeding 3 trillion yuan, is more stable as the first provincial capital. Guangzhou has also become the first and only provincial capital in the country with a GDP of more than 3 trillion yuan.

The position of Guangzhou's first provincial capital is very solid and has not changed for decades. It can be said that the iron-beaten Guangzhou, the ranking of flowing water.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Looking back at the past decade, the ranking of the 27 provincial capitals and capital cities in the mainland has changed dramatically.

Jinan dropped one place, Xi'an dropped two places, Shenyang dropped one place, Changchun dropped three places, Shijiazhuang fell one place, Harbin dropped four places, Nanning dropped one place and Urumqi fell one place.

Fuzhou rose 2 places, Hefei rose 2 places, Kunming rose 3 places, Nanchang rose 3 places, Taiyuan rose 2 places and Guiyang rose 1 place.

Chongqing, whose GDP has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, ranks third among municipalities directly under the central government, and it is difficult to shake it anymore, and Chongqing is moving towards twice the total amount of Tianjin.

1988 was a watershed between Tianjin and Chongqing, and before this node, Tianjin was still a member of the luxurious lineup of the beautiful Beishangtian, and its GDP was ahead of Chongqing.

After that, Chongqing overtook Tianjin and gradually got rid of Tianjin since then.

Of course, during this period, Tianjin took the initiative to squeeze the water twice, and the two major runs caused Tianjin's GDP to shrink by more than 800 billion yuan.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Chongqing and Tianjin Bureau of Statistics

Chongqing and Guangzhou have established moats in their respective small circles (Guangzhou is in the provincial capital circle, Chongqing is in the circle of municipalities directly under the central government) with 3 trillion assists, but there is still suspense in the national ranking.

In other words, the biggest attraction of the two cities is still in the battle for the fourth city.

The contest between Guangzhou and Chongqing City IV is actually a matter of recent years.

Judging from public news reports, Shenzhen surpassed Guangzhou in 2016. However, judging from the GDP adjustment versions in the statistical yearbooks released by Shenzhen and Guangzhou, as early as 2011, Shenzhen's GDP has surpassed Guangzhou.

In other words, before 2010, Guangzhou's GDP still ranked third in the country, and there was no such thing as "guaranteeing four".

After that, it was overtaken by Shenzhen, and Guangzhou retreated to fourth. However, Chongqing did not have the power to wrestle with Guangzhou at that time, after all, there was a Suzhou city in front of Chongqing.

However, Chongqing's rapid growth soon overtook Suzhou and gradually approached Guangzhou, surpassing Guangzhou for the first time in 2017.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Chongqing and Guangzhou Bureau of Statistics

In the following years, Chongqing and Guangzhou alternated the lead, and in 2019, Guangzhou overtook Chongqing again and regained the fourth city. In 2022, Chongqing will once again surpass Guangzhou.

In 2023, the specific GDP data of Guangzhou and Chongqing have not yet been released. Whether Chongqing will continue to lead, or Guangzhou will overtake again, waiting for the results to be announced.

03

Guangzhou and Chongqing compete for the fourth city

Guangzhou and Chongqing are both national central cities and international consumption center cities.

At the administrative level, although Chongqing is a head above the central government, Guangfu has been the core of Guangdong since ancient times. As the capital of Guangdong, the largest province in terms of economy, its status is not inferior to that of Chongqing.

In terms of the degree of national attention, there is no difference.

Guangzhou is one of the core of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, a national grand strategy.

Chongqing is one of the cores of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle. Under the common prosperity, the central government's policies have been tilted towards the southwest region in recent years, especially the transfer of fiscal payments, and Sichuan and Chongqing are the first in their respective fields.

Sichuan Province is the largest province and autonomous region in terms of transfer payments from the central government. Chongqing has received the largest transfer payments from the central government among the municipalities directly under the central government.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Ministry of Finance

Judging from the potential, scale and growth rate of the two cities, in the next ten years, no matter who is leading or lagging behind, the two cities will not be able to get rid of each other.

Of course, although Chongqing is already on par with or even ahead of Guangzhou in terms of total volume, there is still a huge gap between Chongqing and Guangzhou in terms of comprehensive city competitiveness, and even compared with Tianjin, which is only more than half of its total volume, it is dwarfed.

With the size of a province and the size of its population, Chongqing surpassed Guangzhou in terms of total GDP and left Tianjin behind.

However, in terms of per capita indicators, Chongqing still has a lot of room for improvement.

For example, the per capita GDP is 90,700 yuan/person in Chongqing, 119,900 yuan/person in Tianjin, and 153,900 yuan in Guangzhou.

In terms of GDP per capita, that is, the GDP created per square kilometer of land, Guangzhou is more than 10 times that of Chongqing.

Chongqing's per capita GDP is only 35 million yuan/square kilometer. Tianjin is 136 million yuan per square kilometer, and Guangzhou is as high as 388 million yuan per square kilometer.

Per capita disposable income, Chongqing is lower than the national average, ranking 32nd among major cities.

Moreover, in many comprehensive indicators, Chongqing, which has a provincial area and population, is not unique compared to Guangzhou. For example, it is regarded by many as a more effective and accurate measure of the overall strength of a city than GDP.

The total amount of funds, that is, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions, is 4.96 trillion yuan in Chongqing and 8.05 trillion yuan in Guangzhou. Guangzhou's total capital is the fourth largest in the mainland, second only to Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Chongqing, Guangzhou, Tianjin Bureau of Statistics

In addition, there is also a big gap between Chongqing and Guangzhou in Guangzhou's soft power such as science and education, medical care, and transportation services.

Chongqing and Hangzhou, which have been in the limelight in recent years, like to compete with Guangzhou, the former competing with Guangzhou for the fourth city, and the latter with Guangzhou for the first-tier city.

However, the strength of the thousand-year-old commercial capital cannot be underestimated. It can be said that if there is no major policy adjustment or administrative division adjustment in Guangzhou's fourth city of comprehensive strength, it will be difficult for any city to shake in the next 30 years.