The 2023 foreign trade report card is released: exports are growing against the trend, and more than 3/4 of enterprises are optimistic about this year's situation

In 2023, in the face of sluggish foreign demand and uncertain international situation, the mainland's foreign trade will still maintain a growth trend in RMB terms, and the results will be better than expected.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 12, in 2023, the total import and export value of the mainland will be 41.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Among them, exports were 23.77 trillion yuan, up by 0.6 percent, and imports were 17.99 trillion yuan, down by 0.3 percent.

"A bright spot is that in 2023, the scale of the mainland's imports and exports will rise quarter by quarter, with 9.69 trillion yuan in the first quarter and more than 10 trillion yuan in the second, third and fourth quarters. Among them, it reached 3.81 trillion yuan in December, which is a record high for the monthly scale. Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said at the press conference.

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview with the China Times that a pull point for exports this year is the rapid growth of the "new three" such as electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells. The next step should be to continue to develop hard science and technology to enhance international competitiveness.

Looking forward to 2024, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment will increase, but the trend of the mainland's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the factors and conditions supporting high-quality development are still gathering and increasing. "Recently, our survey results on key import and export enterprises show that more than 3/4 of the enterprises are expected to be flat or grow in imports and exports this year, and we have the confidence, ability, conditions and confidence to promote the continued development of foreign trade this year. Wang Lingjun said.

The new trend of import and export is obvious

Overall, China's foreign trade in 2023 has experienced a baptism of wind and rain and remarkable results.

The data shows that in 2023, the main role of private enterprises will be enhanced. The number of foreign trade operators with import and export records on the mainland exceeded 600,000 for the first time, a record high. Among them, there were 556,000 private enterprises, with a total import and export of 22.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3 percent, accounting for 53.5 percent of the total import and export value, an increase of 3.1 percentage points.

Affected by this, the export of mainland independent brands has increased significantly, and the influence of Chinese brands has been further expanded. In 2023, the export of mainland self-owned brand products increased by 9.3%, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of total export value. From the perspective of the market, mainland independent brand products have been exported to more than 200 countries and regions around the world.

With the "new three" become the main force of exports, the export of equipment manufacturing industry reflecting the industrial supporting and integration capabilities has also grown, with a total export value of 13.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, accounting for 56.6% of the total export value of the mainland, especially the development momentum of the mainland automobile and shipbuilding industry is good, the production and sales of automobiles have reached new highs, the three major indicators of shipbuilding completion, new orders, and hand-held orders are leading the world, and the export of related products has increased by 66% , driving the overall growth of mainland exports by 1.5 percentage points. Among the mechanical and electrical products, the total export of the "new three" products was 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time, an increase of 29.9%. Exports of ships and household appliances increased by 35.4 percent and 9.9 percent respectively.

"In 2023, we will import more than 5 trillion yuan of bulk commodities, nearly 3 trillion yuan of electronic components and nearly 2 trillion yuan of consumer goods, providing a broad market space and cooperation opportunities for enterprises from all over the world. The scale of the mainland's manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, with exports of 23.77 trillion yuan and manufacturing products reaching 23.51 trillion yuan in 2023. From the power bank that everyone often carries with them when they go out, to the electric vehicles used for green travel, we can meet the needs of different markets. The 'national tide fever' has also sailed to the sea, and it has really attracted many foreign consumers. Wang Lingjun said.

However, Zhang Yansheng also reminded that the current foreign trade environment is not dominated by market mechanisms, and geopolitical factors account for a large proportion, so it is necessary to pay attention to the intensification of trade frictions in 2024. In the second half of 2023, the United States and Europe have launched a countervailing investigation on mainland electric vehicles, and in 2024, they may also launch a double anti-dumping investigation on lithium batteries.

We have the confidence to promote the continued development of foreign trade

In the past year, the world economic recovery has been sluggish, global trade has been sluggish, and weak external demand has had a direct impact on mainland exports. In terms of numbers, the growth rate of exports has indeed slowed down compared to previous years. However, it should be noted that the mainland's exports have reached a new high on a high base, not only achieving a reasonable growth in quantity, but also maintaining the overall stability of the share, and achieving qualitative and effective improvement in terms of growth momentum and regional pattern, demonstrating strong resilience and comprehensive competitiveness.

One bright spot is that at present, cross-border e-commerce is growing rapidly.

According to preliminary estimates, in 2023, the mainland's cross-border e-commerce import and export will be 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.6%. Among them, exports were 1.83 trillion yuan, up by 19.6 percent, and imports were 548.3 billion yuan, up by 3.9 percent. The number of consumers participating in cross-border e-commerce imports is increasing year by year, reaching 163 million in 2023.

"With the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, everyone can 'buy and sell globally', which not only meets the diversified and personalized needs of domestic consumers, but also helps mainland products reach the world, becoming an important driving force for foreign trade development. Wang Lingjun said.

Correspondingly, the number of pilot free trade zones on the mainland is also increasing, and has now expanded to 22, with a total import and export of 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7 percent, accounting for 18.4 percent of the total import and export value.

"The competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing is still solid. According to the latest data from the WTO, it is expected that the international market share of mainland exports will remain at a high level of about 14% in 2023. Market share is a direct reflection of market competitiveness, figuratively speaking, our share will remain stable in 2023, our 'cake' will not become smaller, and our overall competitiveness will remain solid. Lv Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, said.

Editor-in-charge: Xu Yunqian Editor-in-chief: Gong Peijia