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The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

This past week, the second week of 2024, corn prices continued to show a downward trend, albeit with greater volatility. Since the end of last week, the amount of corn has increased, the price of Shandong has plummeted, and even fallen five times a day, and many companies have fallen sharply; Then with the decline of futures, the price of the Northeast producing area also fell continuously.

Shandong prices hit a new low in recent years, as the price fell, the number of cars decreased, Wednesday and Thursday stopped falling; Prices began to rise on Thursday with the release of the news of the increase in reserves and a sharp spike in futures. However, the Northeast continued to fall.

In terms of futures, the volatility is relatively large. Overall, this week, the main corn contract fell by 0.84%, an increase from the previous two weeks; In particular, it fell sharply in the week, and after the policy change, it soared sharply in the intraday and fell slightly on Friday.

Let's understand the upstream and downstream of corn, so as to have a basic judgment on the market outlook!

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Let's take a look at the recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - related situation!

In the week (January 8-January 12), judging from the situation of central reserve corn, its procurement volume was large, and the transaction price fell sharply. In the week, 363,400 tons were purchased on the network, and 340,000 tons were traded, with a turnover rate of 94%. In comparison, 157,000 tons were purchased last week, and 130,000 tons were traded, with a turnover rate of 83%.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Let's first understand the situation of corn deep processing and feed enterprises

As the Spring Festival is approaching, the pace of grain sales at the grassroots level has accelerated, the willingness of growers to sell grain has increased, the overall volume of the market has increased, the arrival of deep processing enterprises has maintained a high level, and the corn inventory has increased significantly.

According to Mysteel's agricultural products survey, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep processing plants in 12 regions across the country in the second week of 2024 (as of January 10) was 4.825 million tons, an increase of 10.79% from last week and an eight-month high.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Recently, the supply of raw corn in North China is abundant, and some enterprises that have been overhauled in the early stage have resumed production, and the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased again.

According to the survey data of Mysteel corn team, in the week of January 4 to January 10, the operating rate of starch enterprises in the country was 70.71%, an increase of 1.03% from last week, and once again broke through the high point of more than two years. The national corn starch output was 357,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from last week's output.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

The inventory of domestic corn starch enterprises increased slightly, and the performance of various regions was different. Recently, the supply of raw corn in North China is abundant, some enterprises that have been overhauled in the early stage have resumed production, the output of corn starch has increased again, the market delivery is still relatively stable, and the factory has arranged delivery in an orderly manner.

According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, as of January 10, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in China was 685,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.8%, and a monthly increase of 0.44%; The year-on-year decline was 12.4%.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Secondly, let's look at the progress of grain sales

At present, the progress of grain sales in the main producing areas of China is slow year-on-year, the pressure on corn supply has not been effectively released, and some farmers have cash needs before the Spring Festival, and the enthusiasm for grain sales at the grassroots level will gradually increase, and the market supply pressure is expected to be gradually realized.

According to the statistics of Mysteel's corn team, as of January 11, farmers in 13 provinces across the country have made 44% progress in selling grain, a decrease of 4% from the same period last year. The progress of grain sales by peasant households in the seven major producing provinces of the country was 40 percent, a decrease of 4 percent from the same period last year. (However, it increased by 4% compared with the same period last week, and in the week of January 4, the progress of grain sales by farmers in seven major producing provinces across the country was 36%)

Moreover, although there are differences in the statistical data of different institutions, it is an indisputable fact that the progress of grain sales is slow!

For example, as of January 11, 2024, Jilin Province has purchased 8.51 million tons of corn, an increase of 605,000 tons from January 8, accounting for 25.22% of the output of 33.744 million tons (estimated in the monthly report of the National Grain Center), 1.79 percentage points higher than the progress on January 8.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2023/24 global maize production estimate to 1.230 billion tonnes from 1.223 billion tonnes in November. China's corn production estimate has been raised to 288.8 million tonnes from 280.6 million tonnes.

We know that corn is mainly used as feed, and the most important of them is pig feed

。 According to Wind data, as of the week of January 12, the profit of self-farrowing pig breeding was a loss of 269.48 yuan/head, and a loss of 233.21 yuan/head on January 5; The profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 232.73 yuan/head, and a loss of 214.46 yuan/head on January 5.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Let's take a look at the inventory of feed enterprises.

Domestic feed companies continue to carry out Spring Festival stocking and procurement, corn inventory rose slightly, but the demand for feed breeding is weak, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement, only a small amount of stocking, and the stocking is weaker than in previous years.

According to the latest survey data of the Mysteel corn team, as of January 11, the average corn inventory of feed companies was 30.44 days, an increase of 0.09 days week-on-week, an increase of 0.07%, but significantly lower than the same period last year, down 15.22% year-on-year.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Finally, let's take a look at the corn inventory in Guangdong ports

Summary of corn supply and demand in domestic trade in Guangdong port this week (January 6-January 12): 77,000 tons arrived this week, down 6.1% month-on-month and 9.4% year-on-year; 82,000 tons arrived last week and 85,000 tons in the same period in 2022. As of January 12, the domestic trade inventory of Guangdong port totaled 80,000 tons; The foreign trade corn inventory was 1.039 million tons.

The biggest event of the week was Thursday morning, when China Grain Reserves released the news of increasing reserves.

The recent upstream and downstream of the corn industry - the relevant situation! Policy stimulus, can it stop falling?

Through the upstream and downstream data of the corn industry, we can see that the demand is not as bad as everyone thinks, but now it is in the peak period of corn supply and the market sentiment is sluggish; Will the release of the policy of increasing reserves change this situation? Shandong has already bottomed out and stabilized, and the northeastern producing areas continue to fall, how much more can it fall? Is there still a large demand for stocking up before the holiday? What is the quantity and price of storage? We need everyone's attention! However, when corn falls to this position, do you want to build up inventory?

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255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 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