近期玉米産業上下遊——相關情況!政策刺激,能否止跌?

剛剛過去的一周,是2024年的第二周,玉米價格繼續呈現下跌趨勢,不過波動比較大。從上周末開始,玉米上量增加,山東價格崩盤式暴跌,甚至一天五落,多家企業大幅回落;然後随着期貨的下跌,東北産區價格也連續回落。

山東價格創近年新低,随着價格回落,到車數量減少,周三四止跌;周四随着增儲消息的釋出和期貨的大幅飙升,價格開始出現上漲。不過東北地區繼續回落。

期貨方面,波動比較大。整體看本周,玉米主力合約下跌0.84%,跌幅較前兩周有所增加;尤其是當周先大跌,受到政策變動後,盤中大幅飙升,周五小幅回落。

未來如何運作?讓我們了解玉米上下遊相關情況,以待對後市有一個基本判斷!

讓我們看下近期玉米産業上下遊——相關情況!

當周(1月8日--1月12日)從中央儲備玉米情況看,其采購放量,成交價格大幅下跌。當周挂網采購36.34萬噸,成交34萬噸,成交率94%。相比來看上周采購15.7萬噸,成交13萬噸,成交率83%。

先了解一下玉米深加工和飼料企業情況

随着春節逐漸臨近,基層售糧節奏有所加快,種植戶賣糧意願增強,市場整體上量增加,深加工企業廠門到貨維持高位,玉米庫存明顯提升。

據Mysteel農産品調研顯示,全國12個地區,96家主要玉米深加工廠家2024年第2周(截至1月10日)加工企業玉米庫存總量482.5萬噸,較上周增加10.79%,突破8個月高點。

近期華北原料玉米供應充裕,部分前期檢修的企業陸續恢複生産,玉米澱粉行業開機率再度升高。

據Mysteel玉米團隊調查資料顯示,1月4日-1月10日當周,全國澱粉企業開機率為70.71%,較上周升高1.03%,再度突破逾兩年高點。全國玉米澱粉産量為35.77萬噸,較上周産量升高0.52萬噸。

國内玉米澱粉企業庫存小幅上升,各區域表現不一。近期華北原料玉米供應充裕,部分前期檢修的企業陸續恢複生産,玉米澱粉産量再度提升,市場提貨仍較為穩定,工廠有序安排發貨。

據Mysteel農産品調查資料顯示,截至1月10日,全國玉米澱粉企業澱粉庫存總量68.5萬噸,較上周增加0.5萬噸,周降幅0.8%,月增幅0.44%;年同比降幅12.4%。

其次看下售糧進度方面

目前國内主産區售糧進度同比偏慢,玉米供應壓力仍未得到有效釋放,春節前部分農戶存在變現需求,基層售糧積極性将逐漸增強,市場供應壓力預期将逐漸兌現。

據Mysteel玉米團隊統計,截至1月11日,全國13個省份農戶售糧進度44%,較去年同期減少4%。全國7個主産省份農戶售糧進度為40%,較去年同期減少4%。(不過比上周同期提升4%,1月4日當周,全國7個主産省份農戶售糧進度為36%)

而且不同機構的統計資料雖然有差異,但是綜合看售糧進度偏慢是不争的事實!

比如截至2024年1月11日,吉林省入統企業收購玉米851萬噸,較1月8日增加60.5萬噸,占産量3374.4萬噸(國糧中心月報預估)的25.22%,較1月8日進度推進1.79個百分點。

國際谷實體事會(IGC)将2023/24年度全球玉米産量預估,從從11月預估的12.23億噸上調至12.30億噸。其中将中國玉米産量預估從2.806億噸上調至2.888億噸。

我們知道玉米主要用途是做飼料,而其中最主要是被當做豬料

。據Wind資料顯示,截至1月12日當周,自繁自養生豬養殖利潤為虧損269.48元/頭,1月5日為虧損233.21元/頭;外購仔豬養殖利潤為虧損232.73元/頭,1月5日為虧損214.46元/頭。

再看下飼料企業庫存方面。

國内飼料企業繼續進行春節備貨采購,玉米庫存小幅攀升,但飼料養殖需求疲軟,飼企采購心态謹慎,僅進行少量備貨,備貨力度較往年偏弱。

根據Mysteel玉米團隊的最新調查資料顯示,截至1月11日,飼料企業玉米平均庫存30.44天,周環比增加0.09天,漲幅0.07%,但明顯低于去年同期,同比下跌15.22%。

最後看下廣東港口玉米庫存情況

當周(1月6日-1月12日)廣東港口内貿玉米供需小結:本周到貨7.7萬噸,環比下降6.1%,同比下降9.4%;上周到貨8.2萬噸,2022年同期到貨8.5萬噸。截至1月12日,廣東港口内貿庫存共計8萬噸;外貿玉米庫存103.9萬噸。

當周最大的事件就是周四上午,中儲糧釋出增儲消息。

通過玉米産業上下遊相關資料,我們可以看出需求沒有大家想象的那麼壞,但是現在處于玉米上市供應高峰期,市場情緒低迷;增儲政策的釋出,會改變這種狀況嗎?山東已經築底企穩,東北産區持續回落,還能跌多少?節前賣壓的,還是備貨需求大?收儲數量和價格如何?都需要大家關注!不過玉米跌到這個位置,您要不要建立庫存?

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}