2023 inventory: In the top 10 list of sales volume, mainstream joint venture brands are squeezed out by Chinese brands

How are mainstream joint venture brands doing in 2023?

According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association, there are 5 mainstream joint venture brands in the ranking of the top 10 manufacturers in retail sales (domestic) of narrow passenger cars in 2023, namely FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, GAC Toyota, SAIC-GM, and FAW Toyota.

Compared with the ranking data of the same type in 2022, two changes can be seen: first, the number of mainstream joint venture brand car companies has decreased by 1, that is, Dongfeng Nissan has not been included in the top ten rankings, and second, most of the mainstream joint venture brand car companies on the list have declined.

Obviously, compared with the previous boom, the overall performance of mainstream joint venture brands in 2023 is not good, especially when the sales volume of the auto market this year reaches 30 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%, and the annual market share of independent brands increases by 4.6 percentage points, the overall performance of mainstream joint venture brands is more like a Waterloo.

So, in 2023, what happened to the mainstream joint venture brands?

01

FAW-Volkswagen: One of the few high-base growths

FAW-Volkswagen ranked second for two consecutive years, which is unthinkable in the past. In this case, it is only to blame that the top BYD took advantage of the situation to take off too quickly, and you must know that FAW-Volkswagen will actually maintain a high base growth in 2023.

According to the data released by FAW-Volkswagen, its sales in 2023 will be 1.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the Volkswagen brand sold more than one million vehicles, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year, the Audi brand sold nearly 700,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of nearly 10%, and the Jetta brand sold more than 160,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%.

However, FAW-Volkswagen's annual sales are basically contributed by fuel vehicles, and the retail sales of the ID. series of new energy vehicles are only about 50,000 units. The fact that it can achieve sales growth in the fuel vehicle market shows that FAW-Volkswagen still has a strong grip on the traditional market. It's just that with the gradual increase in the penetration rate of new energy in the domestic market, it will sooner or later have to face and solve the situation of weakness in the field of new energy, and at the same time, it will also have to deal with the possibility of continuing to fight a price war in the fuel vehicle market in 2024.

02

SAIC Volkswagen: Slipped one place in the rankings, and electric cars sold the best

Compared with 2022, SAIC Volkswagen's annual sales decline in 2023 will be narrower, and it will fall one place in the list of the passenger association. According to data released by SAIC Volkswagen, its annual sales were 1.215 million units, and the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 130,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%.

Among all the major joint venture brands, SAIC Volkswagen's ID. series has the highest sales volume, exceeding 130,000 units. Although the penetration rate of 10.7% is lower than the 34.7% of the whole industry, it is still much ahead of the 7.4% penetration rate of all mainstream joint venture brands. Among them, after entering the price range of 120,000 yuan, the ID.3 can be called a hit, and from October to December 2023, the retail sales will exceed 10,000 units for three consecutive months, so that it is even difficult to find a car at the terminal.

The strong sales of the ID.3 show that mainstream joint venture brands are not bad at selling new energy vehicles, but that mainstream joint venture brands need to rethink their pricing strategies. With this experience, SAIC Volkswagen should be expected in the field of new energy in 2024.

In the field of fuel vehicles, in 2023, SAIC Volkswagen will launch new products and facelifts on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will also adopt promotions like FAW-Volkswagen, such as the new Tiguan L, which reached about 50,000 yuan at the end of last year, which shows its determination to "promote fuel vehicles".

03

GAC Toyota: Ranked up one place, down 10.34% year-on-year

The rise in the ranking shows that GAC Toyota has outperformed a peer, but the annual sales decline is rare for it. What's the problem?

According to data released by GAC Toyota, its annual sales in 2023 will be 900,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34%. Among them, Leiling's annual sales were 107,000 units, down 43.7% year-on-year, Camry was still the main sales force, with annual sales of more than 200,000 units, down 19.7% year-on-year, Fenglander's annual sales were 166,000 units, down 76.6% year-on-year, Highlander's annual sales were 60,000 units, down 30% year-on-year, and Saina's annual sales were 70,000 units, down 16.7% year-on-year.

It can be seen that the sales of several star models of GAC Toyota are declining, and the Highlander, which was once hard to find and has increased prices, has also fallen to the altar, and the new growth point is not enough to fill the lost sales share of GAC Toyota. Why is this happening?

The answer is that Toyota has always paid attention to operating efficiency, and has always guaranteed profits and abandoned sales, so that its terminal promotion efforts are far less violent than those of the Volkswagen series, coupled with the large sales base caused by GAC Toyota's impact on the million sales target in 2022, a year-on-year decline in 2023 is inevitable;

04

SAIC-GM: Continuing to decline, the new energy transformation needs to be effective

From annual sales of more than 2 million units in 2017 to 1.001 million units in 2023, SAIC-GM has suffered a halving of sales in 6 years. The taste may only be understood by SAIC-GM itself. Of course, today's SAIC-GM is not so unbearable, it is still a large car company with annual sales of more than one million vehicles; behind the ups and downs, only because it stepped on the rhythm of the fuel vehicle market and touched the highlight moment, and after the fuel vehicle market began to ebb and flow, it could not quickly transform to keep up with the trend of the domestic new energy vehicle market.

Fortunately, compared with some mainstream joint venture brands, SAIC-GM's new energy process is fast, such as Buick's new energy vehicles have 3 models, namely Weilan 6, Buick E5, and Buick E4. Driven by new vehicles, SAIC-GM's new energy vehicle sales will reach 100,000 units for the first time in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 104%, and the new energy penetration rate will reach 10%, close to the level of SAIC-Volkswagen. In addition, according to the launch of Buick E5 and Buick E4 based on the professional pure electric Autoneng platform, SAIC-GM's new energy vehicle launch ability is also good.

Therefore, SAIC-GM's new energy performance in 2024 may be expected to be a little expected. Of course, how to stabilize the market share of fuel vehicles is also a challenge for SAIC-GM.

05

FAW Toyota: Very stable and "Toyota"

Compared with GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota's sales performance in 2023 will be more stable. According to the data released by FAW Toyota, FAW Toyota's annual retail sales will exceed 800,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, maintaining positive sales growth for 10 consecutive years. Moreover, this is the performance achieved under the condition that FAW Toyota continued to reduce production in the fourth quarter of last year. According to FAW Toyota, the core purpose of the production cut is to quickly and resolutely relieve the pressure on dealer partners. To this end, FAW Toyota will continue to reduce production from January to February 2024.

So, will the continued reduction of production affect the operation of FAW Toyota? There is a high probability that it will not, to ensure the profits of the industrial chain, so that dealers can exert the greatest initiative, based on its existing product strength, FAW Toyota's sales in 2024 will not necessarily decrease, but stabilize sales and even increase the likelihood. At the same time, considering that the market price war is likely to continue in 2024, FAW Toyota's move may also be a first move.

Of course, although FAW Toyota's entire range of models has achieved electrification, and the sales of Shuangqing models have exceeded 250,000 units, the sales of new energy vehicles, that is, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, are still its shortcomings. In 2023, FAW Toyota's bZ pure electric series sales will be about 33,000 units, which is negligible compared to the total sales of 800,000 units, and the sales of the bZ Sport Crossover Concept, which will be launched in 2024, may not be too high. Therefore, the remaining Toyota Shuangqing cars in the electrification camp that cannot be on the green plate will still test FAW Toyota in 2024.

Fortunately, FAW Toyota's relevant transformation plan is already moving.

Written at the end: In addition to the top 10 mainstream joint venture brands in the top 10 manufacturers on the list of the passenger association, others, such as Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda, Guangqi Honda, etc., saw a year-on-year decline in sales, and Beijing Hyundai increased slightly, which will not be detailed here; Yueda Kia, which has undergone a major adjustment and relies on export-driven, is one of the few car companies with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%.

Overall, the sluggish sales performance of mainstream joint venture brands in 2023 is basically a common phenomenon. The reason for this is that due to the current economic environment, when the market demand has not changed significantly, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles gradually increases (the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 34.7%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared with 2022), the volume gradually increases (the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 7.736 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%) At the same time, the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands with only 7.4% of new energy does not allow them to get any benefits from the domestic new energy outlet.

In 2024, the challenges faced by mainstream joint venture brands will not be small, and there should be no hesitation to focus on the new energy field. However, it is really difficult to stabilize the market share of fuel vehicles while still gaining gains in the field of new energy and even reversing the situation. For example, if mainstream joint venture brands really want to compete with Chinese brands for the price of new energy vehicles, what should they do with fuel vehicles? How to balance vested interests and future interests?