After 27 years of negotiations, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has entered a critical moment before the start of construction. As early as 1997, the railway was mentioned for the first time at the Paris Conference of the "Europe-Caucasus-Asia Transport Corridor Organization", and in that year, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum of cooperation. In the following 20 years, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uganda have reached important consensus on the railway many times and continued to push forward the preliminary work, but they have not been able to start construction due to Russia's opposition. In May 2022, after Russia said "no longer opposed" in the face of the pressure of the Ukraine crisis, the preliminary work of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway progressed smoothly, and the feasibility study, line survey, mapping and geological exploration along the line were completed successively, and the construction was originally planned to start in the second half of 2023. However, on the eve of the start of construction, Kyrgyzstan requested consultations on financing models and management issues, which led to the failure to start construction as scheduled. Recently, Kyrgyzstan once again released a positive signal, hoping that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway can start construction in 2024 and be completed and opened to traffic as soon as possible, but only 500 million US dollars of start-up funds have been prepared.
Kyrgyzstan has recently released many positive signals about the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. As early as July 2023, the project participants jointly completed the feasibility study of the railway, confirming the technical and economic feasibility of the railway, and the line direction and gauge have been determined. Recently, Kyrgyzstan has continued to send positive signals, the country's State Investment Agency said at a press conference in Bishkek that the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will start in 2024, and the country's prime minister also said that he has found $500 million in start-up funds for the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (it is worth noting that the specific source of funds is not mentioned). The source is a big country in the north or a beautiful country? In addition, according to Kyrgyzstan's "National Development Strategy Before 2026", the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is planned to be completed and opened to traffic in 2026 (it is difficult to achieve according to the current progress, and the railway construction period is generally more than 3 years).
At present, the key point restricting the start of construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway lies in the financing model and management model. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is about 523 kilometers long, estimated to cost about 5 billion US dollars, about 213 kilometers in China, about 50 kilometers in Ukraine, and 260 kilometers in Kyrgyzstan, accounting for about 50% of the total mileage, plus Kyrgyzstan hopes to better connect multiple regions of the country through the railway, strengthen internal connectivity, and enhance exchanges and cooperation between the south and the north, and the route has been "optimized" In addition, the special topography in Kyrgyzstan leads to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway through the mountainous area, which needs to build about 90 tunnels, becoming the largest investment section, and may also lead to an increase in the total investment of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, after all, Kyrgyzstan has proposed that the total investment in the country should be increased from 3 billion US dollars to 5 billion US dollars! This total investment is not what Kyrgyzstan can afford, after all, the country's GDP is only about 10.7 billion US dollars, and its financial strength is limited!
Of course, Kyrgyzstan's attitude is still positive. At the end of September and the beginning of October 2023, in the face of rumors that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was "stranded", the former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, the Ministry of Communications, and the railway department took the initiative to respond three times within 20 days, denying the rumors that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ugandska railway was not progressing smoothly, and emphasizing the importance of the railway to Kyrgyzstan's economic development While giving positive signals to Kyrgyzstan, they are emphasizing the financing model and management model of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, and taking the initiative to negotiate these two issues. To put it bluntly, its own economic strength is not strong, there is no way to make large-scale investment, and it needs external support, but it does not want to give up the right to operate and manage!
As the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, Central Asia is a key region connecting East Asia and the Middle East, Europe, Russia and South Asia. For a long time, Central Asia has always been Russia's traditional sphere of influence, and railway cooperation is an important part of CSTO cooperation, even though the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway reached an agreement as early as 1997, but in the face of Russia's opposition, it has not been able to start construction! The situation has not improved until May 2022, after all, Russia, which is deep in the Ukrainian crisis, has been forced to turn to the east, and it is inappropriate to continue to oppose the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway!
However, although Russia "no longer opposes," it still has a "back hand." At present, the China-Europe freight train mainly leaves from Alashankou and Khorgos, passes through Kazakhstan, and then transfers to Russia to reach Western Europe, but after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the railway connection between Russia and Western European countries has been affected, and the cargo volume of the Asia-Europe transport intermediate corridor has continued to rise, which has affected Russia's interests. In the future, the completion and opening of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will form a railway connection between China and the Middle East for the first time, as well as the shortest railway transportation channel between China and Europe (7-8 days less than the existing route transportation time), so Russia will lay out in advance and strongly intervene in the construction of the "Trans-Afghanistan" railway, emphasizing that it will give priority to participating in the construction of the railway. In addition, after the completion and opening of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, it also needs to be connected to other railway networks in order to play a better role. What's more, the "Trans-Afghanistan" railway will not use the 1435 standard gauge, but the "1520mm+1676mm" set of rails, and the existing railways in Russia and Central Asia can seamlessly connect with the railway.
Foreign forces have also stepped up their efforts to win over Central Asia. Since 2023, major powers such as the United States, Japan, and Germany have stepped up their involvement in Central Asian affairs, upgrading the "C5+1" cooperation mechanism to a summit. For example, in September 2023, the "Central Asia-United States" (C5+1) summit was held, and the United States for the first time raised the "C5+1" cooperation mechanism from the ministerial level to the head of state level. According to the Global Times, Japan will cooperate with five Central Asian countries to promote the convening of the "Central Asia-Japan" (C5+1) summit in 2024, which has obvious implications.
Germany, the EU's most economically powerful country, has also increased its attention to Central Asian affairs. At the end of September 2023, the "Central Asia-Germany" (C5+1) was held in Berlin, and the two sides issued a joint statement in which they agreed to expand existing cooperation in the fields of energy and raw materials, infrastructure investment, and combating climate change. It is worth noting that Germany is very interested in the development of new transport corridors and transit corridors (that is, the "intermediate corridor" across the Caspian Sea) and wants to improve the role and capabilities of these corridors, apparently in order to get rid of geopolitical dependence on Russia.
In this context, accelerating the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has become an inevitable choice. The total length of the railway is only about 523 kilometers, the investment ratio is not large, although the terrain along the line is responsible, but it is difficult to defeat the big countries in the East, not to mention that once the railway is completed and opened to traffic, it can directly access the existing railway network, go directly to the Middle East, and form the nearest railway transportation route between China and Europe.
First of all, there is no such thing as "advance" for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. There are many ways for China's foreign railway cooperation, such as the China-Laos railway adopts the BOT model, and the two sides set up a joint venture company to be responsible for construction, operation and transfer, with a concession of 50+25 years, and also obtained the right to open part of the land along the line; The Sino-Thai railway project cooperation model is relatively complex, using the EPC model, Thai enterprises are responsible for offline civil engineering, Chinese enterprises are responsible for tracks, four-electric systems and vehicles (EMUs) and other projects; this model allows Thailand to have a certain degree of autonomy, but it is also the reason for the slow progress of the Sino-Thai railway, after all, Thailand in the absence of money and technology, can only extend the construction period, reduce the short-term financial pressure, at the same time, also need other countries to transfer and digest technology.
At present, the main technical indicators of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway have been basically determined, and a consensus has been reached on the direction and gauge of the line, but there has been no consensus on the financing model and management model. To put it bluntly, the financing model mainly involves the source of funds, and the management model mainly involves the dominance of later operation and management. At present, Kyrgyzstan's attitude towards the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is very positive, and in the case of financial difficulties, it has found 500 million US dollars as start-up capital, which is to show its attitude, hoping to reach a consensus on the financing model and management model as soon as possible, and start construction as soon as possible.
Second, alternative routes need to be opened. After all, the more shipping lanes there are, the better risk diversification. At present, the China-Europe transport corridor is mainly the northern transport corridor (Kazakhstan-Russia-Europe), the middle corridor (China-Central Asia-Caspian Sea-Caucasus-Black Sea-Europe), and the southern transport corridor (China-Central Asia-Middle East-Europe). Among them, the northern transportation corridor is a relatively mature transportation route and the main transportation route of the China-Europe freight train, but it has been affected by the Ukraine crisis, and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is an important part of the southern transportation corridor and has become a key project to open up the southern transportation corridor. The Middle Corridor is a multimodal corridor, which has the disadvantages of long time and high cost.
In this case, it is necessary to intensify the exploration of potential routes and diversify risks. A consensus has been reached on the construction of the China-Kazakhstan-Iran railway transport corridor, which will make use of the existing railway lines to form a direct railway transport corridor to the Middle East and Europe. It is worth noting that the passage is comparable to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway transportation distance. In addition, the construction of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor has also received attention from all parties, such as Germany and the five Central Asian countries have made the corridor the focus of construction, and China has also reached a consensus with the five Central Asian countries that China and Germany can work together to strengthen the transport capacity of the corridor. At present, the delivery time from China to Europe in the Middle Passage has dropped from the initial 38-53 days to 14-18 days, and Kazakhstan is strengthening the throughput capacity of the port of Aktau and Salza on the Caspian Sea coast, which is becoming more and more important!
Of course, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway needs to be accelerated. In 2023, the China-Europe (Central Asia) trains will run 7,762 and more than 6,600 respectively, accounting for more than 60% of the China-Europe trains! In the case of saturated capacity, new transportation channels are urgently needed, and it is necessary to accelerate the construction of the third cross-border railway between China and Kazakhstan, and it is also necessary to promote the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to form a new railway external transportation route.
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