Producer: Sina Finance Listed Company Research Institute
作者:新消费主张/CICI
The closing price of the first day of the break may have become a high point that Nayuki's tea is difficult to go back to. As of the close of trading on January 11, 2024, the company's share price has fallen by 83.18% from the issue price of HK$19.8 per share, a discount of 1.7%.
According to the investment cost per share paid by institutional investors disclosed in the company's prospectus, the B2 round of institutional investors lost more than 30% and the C round of institutional investors lost more than 60%, and Shenzhen Capital Group, Honghui Capital, and PAG Investment Group (PAG) were "trapped".
The core reason why investors are "voting with their feet" and the company's stock price is falling may be that Nayuki's tea growth expectations are not clear. After the impact of the epidemic is completely ruled out in 2023, a more intense round of "fighting" between new tea brands will begin. In this battlefield where store development ability is the growth expectation, low price advantage to cope with consumption downgrade, and supply chain capacity are the core highlights, Naixue's tea may not have outstanding advantages compared with "Honey Snow Ice City".
Nai Xue's tea stock price is discounted by 1.7 to trap Honghui Capital and PAG Investment to reduce costs and turn losses or it is difficult to impress investors
On June 30, 2021, Nai Xue's tea landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and won the "first share of new tea drinks", but it closed down 13.54% on the first day of listing at HK$17.12 per share. However, the stock price that broke on the first day has become a high point that Nayuki will not go.
In 2021 (half a year after listing), Nai Xue's tea share price fell by 56.77% cumulatively, and the stock price was cut in half, and in 2022, the stock price continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 12.03% for the whole year, and in 2023, I thought that it would get better after excluding the impact of the epidemic, but in fact, the company's stock price was cut in half again, with a cumulative decline of 57.90% throughout the year.
（资料来源：wind资讯）
The stock price continued to fall sharply, and it was not only individual investors who lost money, but also institutional investors in the B and C rounds such as PAG Investment and Honghui Capital. According to the prospectus, Naixue has completed 5 rounds of financing before listing, and investors include Tiantu Investment, Shenzhen Venture Capital, Honghui Capital, PAG and many other well-known institutions.
Among them, the cost per share paid by the B2 round investors Shenzhen Capital and Honghui Capital was US$0.6366 (estimated at the US dollar exchange rate on the day, approximately), and the investment cost per share of the C round investors PAG Investment Group and Honghui Capital was US$1.1035. If it is estimated at the closing price of $0.4348 per share on January 10 (estimated at the exchange rate on January 10), both B2 and C round institutional investors have suffered large-scale losses.
(Source: Company Prospectus)
The root cause of Nai Xue's tea stock price falling one after another, and even B and C round investors are mired in losses, may be mainly due to the uncertainty of the company's growth expectations.
Judging from the 2018-2022 annual results, Naixue's tea revenue growth has already declined significantly before listing, with revenue declining from 130.20% year-on-year growth in 2019 to 22.20% in 2020. In the second year of listing, revenue declined, and the full-year revenue in 2022 fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year. During the same period, Nai Xue's tea performance has not yet turned around.
In the first half of 2023, Naixue's tea achieved a total operating income of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 66 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround. The increase in revenue may be mainly due to the low performance base in the same period last year, and the turnaround may be mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
In H1 2023, under the premise of revenue growth, the company's original employee costs, depreciation expenses of right-of-use assets, advertising and promotion expenses have decreased, and it is particularly noteworthy that the changes in employee costs are particularly noteworthy, in H1 2022, Naixue's tea employee costs were 712 million yuan, and in H1 2023, they decreased by 3.68% year-on-year to 686 million yuan. Under the premise of store expansion and revenue growth, the decline in employee costs is quite strange.
But through the 2022 financial report, we may be able to get part of the answer, as of the end of 2021, the number of tea employees in Nai Xue was 10,671, but by the end of 2022, the number of employees in Nai Xue fell to 7,557, a year-on-year decrease of 29.18%. The story of high sales growth cannot be told, Nai Xue's tea may try to reduce employee costs through "layoffs", so as to improve profitability and win the confidence of investors? However, the profitability improvement brought by this layoff and cost reduction may not be sustainable.
Q3 only added 4 new franchisees Store development, low price advantage and supply chain capacity can not be "Mixue Bingcheng"
After the impact of the epidemic is completely ruled out in 2023, a more intense round of "fighting" between new tea brands will begin. This round of fighting is not about feelings, but about data, and fierce competition is launched from multiple perspectives such as store expansion capabilities, low-price advantages, and supply chain capabilities.
In this battlefield where store development capabilities are the growth focus, low-price advantages are the ability to cope with consumption downgrades, and supply chain capabilities are the core highlights, Naixue's tea has no outstanding advantages compared with "Honey Snow Ice City".
First of all, from the perspective of store development, since its establishment, Nai Xue's tea has not been released to franchise for a long time, and it will not be released until late July 2023. However, after the release of the franchise, Nai Xue's tea did not appear to be a hot franchise. According to the company's business report for the third quarter of 2023, as of September 30, 2023, Naixue's tea had a total of 1,364 stores, of which 1,360 were directly operated stores and 4 were franchised stores. This also shows that in the more than two months since the opening of the franchise, Nai Xue's tea has only added 4 new franchise stores.
Why Nai Xue's tea franchise situation is so cold after the release of the franchise, we believe that this may be related to its excessively high early franchise budget, high budget and lack of brand appeal. There are capital requirements for tea to join Naixue, and a single store cooperation requires a working capital verification certificate of 1.5 million yuan or more or other asset certificates, and a regional cooperation requires a working capital verification certificate of 4.5 million yuan or more or other asset certificates.
The early investment budget is nearly 1 million, including 60,000 brand cooperation fees, 40,000 opening comprehensive service fees, 30,000 training fees, 30,000 security deposits, 350,000 equipment and props fees, 400,000 decoration costs, and 70,000 first distribution costs, and the total costs listed above are nearly 980,000 yuan. This does not include costs such as rent, staffing, etc. In addition, franchisees also need to pay operating service fees to Nai Xue's tea, that is, 1% of the actual revenue will be collected when the turnover is over 60,000 yuan.
Compared with Heytea, Nai Xue's tea brand usage fee, training fee, equipment props, decoration cost budget, etc. are all higher, especially the equipment and props cost, decoration fee, Nai Xue's equipment and props budget is 350,000 yuan, and Hey Tea's is 150,000 yuan, the decoration Fei Nai Xue's tea budget is 400,000 yuan, and the decoration budget of Hey Tea is 100,000 yuan. The high franchise fee may dissuade a large number of potential franchisees.
In addition, from the perspective of low price advantage to gain customers, Nai Xue's tea, as the pioneer of high-end freshly made tea drinks, has relatively high product pricing. In the past few years, Nai Xue has also "bowed" to low prices and bid farewell to "3-digit" drinks, but she still can't spell "Honey Snow Ice City". Taking the tea Baidao, which also focuses on the manufacture of fresh fruits, as an example, compared with Nayuki's tea, its price is more affinity, and from the perspective of product research and development, there is no shortage of popular items launched with the change of seasons.
In 2022, about 66.8 million cups of tea Baidao poplar branch manna were sold, achieving retail sales of about 1.28 billion yuan, and more than 62 million cups of signature taro ball milk tea and jasmine milk green were sold, bringing in retail sales of 917 million yuan and 759 million yuan, respectively.
From the perspective of supply chain capabilities, the business model of Nai Xue's tea is not the same as that of other companies that hit the second share, Mixue Bingcheng, Gu Ming, and Cha Baidao are more like supply chain businesses, mainly making money by selling materials and equipment to franchisees;
Therefore, compared with Nai Xue's tea, the franchise-based new tea beverage brand pays more attention to the construction of the supply chain. Taking Mixue Bingcheng as an example, as early as 2012, the company began to extend to the upstream production and manufacturing field of the industrial chain, and has built five production bases, covering all categories of sugar, milk, tea, coffee, fruit and ingredients, so as to achieve 100% purchase of beverage ingredients, packaging materials and equipment from the brand, 60% of the beverage ingredients provided to franchisees are self-produced, and 100% of the core beverage ingredients are self-produced.