Financial reporter Guan Yanan
Recently, A-share listed companies have successively announced their 2023 performance forecasts.
According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, as of 19:00 on January 10, a total of 98 A-share listed companies took the lead in disclosing the 2023 annual performance forecast, and more than eighty percent of the company's performance is promising, of which 20 listed companies are expected to double the net profit attributable to the parent company year-on-year. Judging from the median net profit forecast attributable to the parent company in 2023, Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric, Lixun Precision, and COSCO Shipping Holdings all have profits of more than 10 billion.
From the perspective of industry, most of the companies with good performance are concentrated in the four major industries of consumer electronics, medicine and biology, automobiles and food and beverage. It is worth noting that A-share Huawei concept stocks performed well, with about 87.5% of the 16 related listed companies having good results, of which 43.7% had a net profit increase of more than 60%.
98 companies disclosed annual report forecasts, and more than eighty percent of net profits were expected to increase
Overall, as of 19:00 on January 10, 98 A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2023 annual performance forecasts, and 81 are expected to achieve a net profit of more than 100 million yuan, accounting for 82.7%. Among them, there are 4 companies with a net profit of more than 5 billion yuan for two consecutive years, namely Kweichow Moutai, Lixun Precision, Gree Electric Appliances, and COSCO Shipping Holdings.
20 listed companies with a net profit of more than 100% (data source: Flush iFinD)
However, it is worth noting that due to the weakening demand for transportation in the container shipping industry last year, the rise in capacity supply, geopolitical tensions and many other factors, the market freight rate level has decreased significantly compared with last year, although COSCO Shipping Holdings has achieved a net profit of about 23.859 billion yuan, but compared with the net profit of 109.7 billion yuan last year, the performance decreased by about 78.25% year-on-year. Judging from the current performance forecast, Kweichow Moutai is wiped out, and the net profit is expected to be the highest, with a median net profit of about 73.5 billion yuan.
At present, there are 7 companies that have turned losses into profits, namely Kangtai Biotechnology, Silver Jubilee Technology, Hongbo Shares, Hangzhou High-tech, Harbin Investment Shares, Shensanda A and SuperMap Software. Among them, the GIS leader SuperMap Software is expected to achieve operating income of 1.9 billion ~ 2 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 19.07% ~ 25.34% year-on-year, a net profit of 180 million ~ 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.15% ~ 167.92%, and gross profit margin is expected to increase from 46.54% in 2022 to 50% ~ 60%. On the whole, in 2023, the company will steadily promote its traditional main business, focus on the second growth curve, and achieve remarkable results in its strategic layout, which not only achieves excellent results in 2023, but also accumulates momentum for subsequent development.
In stark contrast, Jubilee Technology, which also turned losses into profits, according to the company's announcement, the main reason for the change in its performance is that the company implemented a restricted stock incentive plan in 2021, and in 2023, due to failure to meet the performance appraisal target, the equity incentive expense will be reduced by 62.53 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the median net profit change will reach 624.50% under this stimulus.
Focusing on Shandong, as of January 10, a total of 5 listed Shandong enterprises have announced their 2022 performance forecasts, of which only 1 is "pre-increase", 3 are "pre-decreased", and 1 is "significantly reduced", and the results are not ideal.
Among them, Taihe Technology from Zaozhuang, Shandong suffered a sharp decline in performance last year, showing a sharp decline, and it is expected that the net profit in 2023 will be 135 million yuan ~ 165 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.5% ~ 66.05%. Compared with the four listed Lu enterprises that failed to report good news, it was found that the net profit failed to continue to rise, in addition to the impact of factors such as fierce market competition and the decline in selling prices with the purchase price of raw materials, but also due to the high dependence on the downward real estate industry.
Huawei's concept stocks led the "hurricane"
Since last year, due to the explosion of Huawei's mobile phones and automobiles, Huawei-related concept stocks have also become the most popular sectors in the A-share market. Around the upstream and downstream industrial chain of Huawei mobile phones and Huawei automobiles, there are as many as hundreds of stocks that have been brought up, and this performance "spoiler" is no exception, in the 16 relevant listed companies currently announced, the performance of the promising ones accounts for about 87.5%, of which the net profit rose by more than 60% to 43.7%.
Taking Heng Mingda, which has just become a supplier of well-known brands such as Huawei and Xiaopeng Motors in the first half of 2023, as an example, the company's main products are consumer electronics structural parts and consumer electronics functional devices, which are widely used in smart phones, computers, VRAR, smart wearable devices, etc. In 2023, the company's net profit will be 280 million yuan ~ 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.05% ~ 55.41%. At the same time, tuyere finance noticed that from the fourth quarter alone, Hengmingda is expected to achieve a net profit of 85 million yuan ~ 105 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107% ~ 155%.
After hitting a new high in net profit in the third quarter of 2023, Hengmingda accelerated the expansion of its business territory to innovative fields such as new energy and communications in the fourth quarter to build the Huizhou Hengmingda intelligent manufacturing base project. Heng Mingda said in an institutional survey. "The company's ongoing fundraising project is to further promote the growth and release of the company's production capacity. According to the announcement, Hengmingda is expected to add about 4.41 million pieces/sets of new energy and communication products to the end of production, with an additional sales revenue of about 2.6 billion yuan and a gross profit of about 490 million yuan. It is worth noting that the equity incentive unlocking of Hengmingda equity incentive is based on the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, and the company's net profit CAGR (average annual compound growth rate) in the next three years will reach 53.64%.
Compared with the fruit chain with only 49 listed companies selected, Huawei's concept stocks are a huge family, and even evolved a lot of "scandal stocks", and also hyped up "splashing wealth".
For example, the 2023 annual performance forecast disclosed by Shenzhou Taiyue shows that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 will be 830 million yuan ~ 930 million yuan, an increase of 53.17% ~ 71.62% over the same period last year. As soon as the announcement was released, Shenzhou Taiyue rose more than 6% in intraday trading the next morning.
Shenzhou Taiyue's financial report for the third quarter of 2023 (data source: Flush iFinD)
However, a closer look at Shenzhou Taiyue's financial report for the third quarter of 2023 shows that the company's game business contributes more than 80% of revenue, while the ICT operation business that can be related to Huawei's concept accounts for very little. In addition, the company's marketing expenses are extremely high, reaching 1.113 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, accounting for almost 30% of operating income.
Consumption is recovering strongly
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2023 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and from January to November, the retail sales of goods reached 38,046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.
The signs of a strong recovery in consumption are also directly reflected in this performance forecast. Judging from the performance forecast disclosed so far, the performance of the large consumption industry is very bright. Yanjing Beer expects net profit to increase by 63.22%~94.44% year-on-year, and Yanjin Shop expects net profit to increase by 65.84%~69.16% year-on-year. Even the garment industry, which has been struggling in the mud of losses, has once again ushered in vitality, and in 2023, Peacebird will achieve a net profit of about 415 million yuan, an increase of about 125% compared with 2023, from -27 million yuan in 2022 to 275 million yuan in 2023.
Peacebird K-line chart, January 9-10 has been limited for two consecutive days (data source: Straight Flush iFinD)
It is worth noting that in addition to traditional consumption, new consumption highlights have also emerged, such as health consumption and pet consumption. For example, the 2023 performance forecast of Tomson Beijian, a leader in the health care products industry, shows that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.594 billion yuan ~ 1.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% ~ 35%.
China Securities believes that the growth rate of A-share earnings will achieve a weak improvement in 2024. The fourth quarter of 2023 showed further positive signals, which will underpin the economic performance in 2024. With the background of the year-on-year bottom recovery of PPI, A-share earnings are likely to be in a weak recovery channel.
(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!)