Lockdown, catching strong men and those who can't go back to their homes, the bold reshuffle war will continue in 2024

On December 12, 2023 local time, in Shan State, Myanmar, in Nam Son Township, members of the ethnic armed group De'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) ride motorcycles on the streets where they clashed with the Myanmar military. (Visual China/Photo)

Several Kokang Allied soldiers planted their flags on the South Tianmen Gate in Kokang Old Street and said in a southwestern official accent: "At 4 p.m. on January 5, 2024, (we) officially occupy Nantianmen Mountain. We have won!" the video went viral by the Kokang Information Network.

Nantianmen was the last fortress of Kokang captured by the Allied forces.

In early 2024, the spokesman for the State Administration Council, which represents the Myanmar junta, admitted that the allied forces had taken control of the entire Kokang region, and that the Tatmadaw had voluntarily withdrawn from Kokang Lao Cai and relinquished control of it. "The Tatmadaw has considered the situation in Lao Cai from many sources. The first is to ensure the safety of the families. Zuo Mintun told the media.

Over the past 70 days, the "Three Brothers Alliance", a local ethnic armed alliance of Myanmar represented by the Allied Army, has been fighting against the Burmese military junta. The fighting began in Shan State in northeastern Myanmar and Kachin State in northern China, and spread to Sagaing Province and Mandalay Province in "Lower Burma".

On the eve of the Allied occupation of Kokang, street fighting and air raids in the capital, Lao Cai, became more frequent, and videos of orange incendiary bombs falling were often leaked. Notices from the Myanmar military and the Chinese embassy and consulates in Myanmar calling on "ordinary people to evacuate Lao Cai" followed.

"I planned to open a hotel in Lao Cai in 2024, and after the war, it was all in vain. On the first day of the new year, Lu Shengmin, a Kokang man, cried to a reporter from Southern Weekend that his hotel was located in a bustling area of Lao Cai, with a seven-storey building and an estimated price of 80 million yuan.

Rumors, air raids and bombings

In the aftermath of Operation Hurricane, fighting and rumours spread in several cities in northern Myanmar.

Yang Zurong, a native of Myanmar's wooden sister, is still sleeping unsteadily. At night, Yang Zurong could hear a few shells from time to time, and then the city fell silent again.

"I can't tell if it's the Burmese army or the cannon fire of the 'Three Brothers Alliance'. Yang Zurong told Southern Weekend. She knew it could not be the sound of firecrackers in Burma, which had already banned fireworks in many towns and cities, she knew.

In mid-to-late December 2023, Yang Zurong heard rumors several times that "the 'Three Brothers Alliance' wants to take down Sister Mu". Mujie is located close to Ruili in Yunnan Province and is one of the largest cities on the border trade between China and Myanmar.

"Every time I heard a cannonball, Sister Mu would run to Ruili, stay in China for a few days, and then come back. Yang Zurong said that most of the Mujie people living on the China-Myanmar border have issued border resident certificates for a period of one year, and once the situation is turbulent, they will run to the place where the Chinese flag is hung.

Yang Zurong's home is near Sister Mu's China-Myanmar Street Gate, and it only takes ten minutes to walk from home to China-Myanmar Gate. On weekdays, she travels to Ruili, Yunnan to do jade business, and her family has opened a restaurant and has been in business for more than ten years.

Sister Mu in the border town has been without water and electricity for half a month, and Yang Zurong's neighbor has put a large generator in a room with a height of 2 meters, and she can't sleep all night.

As of press time, Mu is still under the control of the Burmese military junta. The Nankan, which is half an hour's drive to the southwest, and Bangsai, which is an hour's drive to the northeast, are temporarily controlled by the Allied forces.

The curfew in many towns in northern Myanmar remains from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. the next morning.

After the start of "Operation Hurricane", the sound of planes circling could always be heard in the sky above Sister Mu, and Yang Zurong heard many examples of civilians being hit and injured.

There is a video circulating in her Chinese circle: a man mistakenly stepped on a landmine next to the plane restaurant in the 105-yard border trade zone of Sister Mu, and blew up half of his leg.

Yang Zurong said that the Burmese army's military camp is stationed outside Mujie City, and it is difficult for ordinary people to leave the city, and most of the delivery drivers take a detour. She herself would not go to the mountains on the outskirts of the city, "I don't know who will bury mines there".

In November, the "Three Brothers Alliance" won the border towns of Rolling Lane, Qingshuihe, Nandeng and other places. Subsequently, the National Liberation Army (NAP) took control of several towns that had previously belonged to the Autonomous Region.

More and more people are fleeing their hometowns. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, armed conflict has displaced 136,000 people in Myanmar between 31 October and 11 December 2023.

Northern Burmese people living on the border flee to the 125 Refugee Aid Point, which is backed by the 125 boundary pillar between China and Myanmar and is just a wall away from China's southern umbrella port. In the past, the South Umbrella Port was the main passage for Kokang border residents to enter China.

In addition to running a hotel, Lu Shengmin also opened two drug rehabilitation centers and made charitable donations. "Before the Allies attacked, I had a lot of volunteers in Camp 125. Now it's all gone. Lu Shengmin told Southern Weekend.

Today, the Yunnan-Myanmar border is also not very safe, and the southern umbrella has blocked the port. On January 3, 2024, Myanmar shells fell again into the town of Nanyu, injuring five Yunnan locals in the explosion.

When asked by Southern Weekend about a number of Yunnan people living on the border, almost all of them replied that "I have never been to Xia [the border] since the war began."

Many Kokang people fled south to Bang Kham, the capital of Wa State, Mongla, the capital of the Fourth Special Administrative Region of Eastern Shan State, and even other countries.

"In the past, it was the Burmese army that caught strong men"

Young adults on the way to escape are likely to be captured and sent to serve as soldiers.

Lu Shengmin found that as long as the Kokang young man who passed by the Qingshui River would be captured by the allied army, "he will be dragged to the Wa State Nandeng for training for a week or two, and then he will go to the front line." ”

"The managers of the eight orphanages in Lao Cai have also fled, and the orphans in the orphanages will be arrested and taken as strong men. Lu Shengmin said.

Heng Kai, a Burmese Chinese scholar, mentioned that in the past, it was the Burmese army who went to the local area to catch coolies and asked civilians to help carry food and find equipment. "This time, the Kokang Alliance Army's 'arrest of strong men' has somewhat made the Kokang people a little dissatisfied. Heng Kai is a native of Lashio, Myanmar and an assistant professor at the Institute of Overseas Chinese and Regional Studies at Huaqiao University

It can be seen that the strength of the "Three Brothers Alliance" is somewhat stretched. "In mid-to-early December, the De'ang National Liberation Army (NAPLA) was attacking Mantong and Nam San, towns in the former De'ang Autonomous Region under the control of the junta. According to Heng Kai's analysis, at that time, part of the Kokang Alliance Army went to support, and the battle situation in Lao Cai eased slightly.

Myanmar observers believe that after the Allied forces take control of the Qingshui River in November, they will inevitably encounter a major counteroffensive by the Burmese army. "However, the Burmese army still did not attack vigorously. Henkai believes that the Burmese army may also be held back by small-scale wars in many places.

The arrest of Zhuangding has also spread to other cities. In late December, several of Hou Xinping's friends traveled south from Hpakant, northern Myanmar to Mandalay, and on the way they encountered the "arrest of strong men" incident.

"As soon as the captivators come up, they will ask 'where are the brothers?' and then ask the other party's hometown and nationality, and in most cases, they only choose people of the same nationality to join the army. Hou Xinping, who is in his forties, told Southern Weekend that his friend was the same age as him and was not arrested because he was too old.

"If you don't want to join the army, then those arrested will have to pay a fine, about 35 million kyats (10,000 to 15,000 yuan). Hou Xinping smiled wryly at the Southern Weekend reporter.

Hou Xinping was born in Mogu, Myanmar, and settled in Mandalay, mainly trading local products such as Myanmar sesame seeds and mung beans. Not far from the border between Mandalay Province and Shan State, Mogu is a multi-ethnic gathering area of Burmese, Shan, and De'ang, rich in rubies and sapphires.

"There will also be door-to-door conscripts, and if there are more men in the family, they will take one with them. Hou Xinping recalled that if someone deserted, they would go to the house to arrest a new one.

Ordinary people are still worried about how to escape the fighting. "After the Confederates occupy Kokang, the next target is likely to be Lashio. Alain told Southern Weekend that she lives and works in the capital, Yangon, but her parents remain in Lashio.

Alain told his parents not to go out after 6 p.m. "We also have a house in Mandalay, and if the war does get to Lashio, I'll let them take refuge from the limelight. ”

Boldly shuffle the cards

Since the start of Operation Hurricane on October 27, 2023, Lu Shengmin has been stranded in Thailand's Chiang Rai province, which belongs to the "Golden Triangle", due to flight problems, and he hopes to return to Kokang before the Lunar New Year.

On October 27, 2023, the "Three Brothers Alliance" launched Operation Hurricane, claiming to unite all revolutionary organizations to overthrow the rule of the Burmese military and combat telecom fraud in northern Myanmar.

The "Three Brothers Alliance" successively took control of Qingshuihe, Bangsai, Nankan, Nanmudu and other places, and will continue to launch attacks in Guiyi, Kyaukmai and other towns.

Lu Shengmin, 45, is a native of Kokang, and he usually does business in Southeast Asia, "The Kokang family has several children, and they usually keep one or two to take care of the family, and the rest go out to make money."

"The recapture of Kokang has always been one of the priorities of the Confederates. Myanmar Chinese scholar Heng Kai told Southern Weekend.

The Kokang Alliance was led by Peng Deren, the son of the late "Kokang King" Peng Jiasheng. Fourteen years ago, Peng Jiasheng controlled the 140,000-strong Kokang Autonomous Region of Myanmar's Shan State, a land surrounded by mountains.

During the "8.8 Incident" in 2009, Peng Jiasheng's old subordinate Bai Socheng and others defected to the Burmese army, and Peng Jiasheng withdrew from the capital Lao Cai and moved to Kokang Hongyan District. Since then, there have been four major families in Kokang, Bai Suocheng, Wei Chaoren, Liu Zhengxiang, and Liu Guoxi. The first three are Peng Jiasheng's old department, and Liu Guoxi is Peng Jiasheng's "old opponent".

Among the "four families", Bai Socheng is the former chairman of the Kokang Autonomous Region Government, the eldest son Bai Yingneng is the chairman of the Myanmar Yum Group, and the second son Bai Yingcang was the deputy director of the Kokang Finance Bureau and the captain of the Kokang militia brigade.

Wei Chaoren's family controls the Kokang political and legal system, while Liu Zhengxiang focuses on casinos and real estate. Liu Guoxi, who passed away in 2020, was a financial official in the financial affairs of major families in Kokang, and his children ran mining, casinos, hotels and other businesses in Kokang.

The outside world often calls Kokang a "three regardless" zone, but Lu Shengmin believes, "In Kokang, if something happens, you have to find the right person, otherwise you will be bullied." Some families are like local emperors. After the Kokang Alliance captured Lao Cai, they would definitely go in and get the car and money, no different from other people in power. Lu Shengmin is Bai Yingneng, the son of Bai Yingneng and Bai Yingcang, and he often attends local charity events in Kokang with Bai Yingneng.

"There are several big families who control the local politics, economy and military. They are not only serious business, but also illegal business. Hengkai told Southern Weekly.

In order to attract money and make profits, the four major families have also become the backers of local wire fraud companies in recent years.

On December 10, 2023, public security organs in Liaoning, Fujian, Chongqing and other places in China publicly offered rewards for the arrest of 10 Kokang wire fraud leaders, including Bai Suocheng, Wei Huairen, and Liu Zhengxiang.

"After this resolute reshuffle, the power of the four major families will no longer exist. Zhong Xiaoxin, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Relations at Yunnan University, told Southern Weekend that the Bai family's whereabouts are currently unknown, and it is likely to become a bargaining chip for the Burmese military.

Zhong Xiaoxin analyzed that in the past civil strife in northern Myanmar, the Burmese army fought against a single group of civilian forces and could be successfully won. When the Burmese army moved north, the People's Protection Forces (PDF) were stationed throughout the country's hinterland. On the eastern and western flanks, the Burmese army encountered attacks from the Mindi Vuha Rakhine Army and the Karen Army. "This time, the Burmese army was attacked by the enemy on its back, and was unable to move north with all its might, and soon relinquished control of Kokang Old Street."

"There are as many ethnic minorities as there are arms"

After secession from the British Commonwealth in 1948, Myanmar became a multi-ethnic country with 135 ethnic groups, of which 60% were Burmese.

"Northern Myanmar" refers to the northern part of Kachin and Shan States. There are many ethnic minorities in the region, and in addition to the main ethnic groups such as the Kachin and Shan, there are also more than a dozen ethnic groups living in China, such as the Kokang, Hani, and Wa, who are of the same origin as China and intermarry with each other.

"There are as many rebels as there are ethnic minorities in Myanmar. Former Myanmar President Ne Win once said.

Influenced by factors such as the ethnic division policy of British colonialism and the Greater Burmese nationalism promoted by successive governments, various ethnic groups in northern Myanmar have formed a number of armed groups, such as the Ruokang Allied Army, the Kachin Independence Army, and the United Wa State Army.

At the end of the 20th century, a total of 17 armed groups signed peace agreements with the Burmese government, and 12 of them were designated as special regions. In order to fight for regional autonomy, the militias and local forces have maintained their own forces and controlled one side, and have clashed with the Burmese army.

"At the beginning of Operation 1027, the fight against wire fraud was only one of the goals of the 'Three Brothers Alliance', and this war has only reflected the dissatisfaction of various ethnic groups in Myanmar with the current regime. Hengkai analysis.

According to the Kokang Information Network on November 25, 2023, the Kokang Alliance received donations of 500 million kyats from five Burmese non-governmental organizations. "This is the first time since Myanmar's independence in 1948 that local militias have received donations from outside their own ethnic groups. Hengkai told Southern Weekly.

In February 2021, Myanmar's National League for Democracy, represented by Aung San Suu Kyi, was detained, warlords took power, and Myanmar entered a state of emergency. Subsequently, NLD set up People's Defence Forces (PBS) in various parts of Myanmar, and some of them conducted military training by the People's Republic of China.

According to a February 2022 survey by Singapore's Yusof Isa Institute, Myanmar's political turmoil and ethnic separatist sentiments intensified after the military established a state management committee.

"If you go out after the curfew, you will be screened on your phone and look through photo albums to see if there are any anti-junta pictures or chats. Hou Xinping told Southern Weekend.

In order to avoid a large-scale humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, China has repeatedly mediated and promoted peace talks between the Tatmadaw and the "Three Brothers Alliance".

From January 4 to 6, 2024, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong visited Myanmar. During the visit, Sun Weidong called on Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing and held consultations with Myanmar Deputy Foreign Minister Lon Oo to have an in-depth exchange of views on China-Myanmar relations and the situation in northern Myanmar and other issues of common concern.

From January 7 to 9, representatives of the Myanmar military and the "Three Brothers Alliance" held a third meeting in Kunming, China. Myanmar's Golden Phoenix Society said the Myanmar Defence Forces delegation was led by Lieutenant General Min Nai.

Representatives of the two sides held peace talks on a ceasefire on two occasions in December, but fighting continued in northern Shan State in the absence of a concrete agreement.

"This negotiation was also conducted under the mediation of the Chinese side. Zhong Xiaoxin believes that the core negotiation points between the Burmese army and the "Three Brothers Alliance" are twofold: one is the control of the Qingshui River port on the Sino-Burmese border, and the other is the right of the Burmese army to garrison Lao Cai.

The civil war triggered by Operation Hurricane is spreading from ethnic minority areas in northern Myanmar. According to Burmese media reports, dozens of resistance groups have stepped up attacks in Chin State, Kachin State, Mandalay, Sagaing and Makui provinces.

In view of the tight strength of the "Three Brothers Alliance", Zhong Xiaoxin judged that the alliance did not have the extra troops to attack Lashio in the south, "at most, it will only harass the surrounding towns, and it will not realize the threat." Because they have already won the core strategic goal: to be bold. ”

(Lu Shengmin is a pseudonym in the article)

Southern Weekly reporter Gu Yuebing

Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang