Since the United States began to impose comprehensive sanctions on Venezuela, the Venezuelan economy has suffered an extremely negative impact. But Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is a tough and uncompromising leader. This has led to tensions between Venezuela and the United States, but now the situation seems to have changed, with Maduro sending two signals to the United States in quick succession. And he himself said that he is still considering whether to participate in the next presidential election.
It has to be said that Maduro has also hesitated under US sanctions, but often hesitation will be defeated, Maduro should now take the initiative to change the situation in Venezuela, actively join the BRICS cooperation mechanism, and strive for a quota is the right way, and now it seems that Venezuela also has a chance to join the BRICS.
(Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro)
Venezuela as a country in South America, the geographical location is quite critical, and even has rich oil resources, Venezuela's economy is also highly dependent on oil exports, there are many friends who have no idea how much oil Venezuela has, simply put, Venezuela is still one of the world's largest oil reserves, with reserves no less than Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other countries. The proven oil reserves alone exceed 300 billion barrels, ranking first in the world. Moreover, before World War II, Venezuela discovered a large amount of oil, and the United States is the world's largest oil consumer.
It stands to reason that Venezuela could have made a fortune lying on oil, but now Venezuela not only has a declining economy, but also owes about $50 billion in debt to China.
So why did Venezuela become a "poor country" lying on oil?
(Venezuela has a lot of oil resources)
This brings us to the "carrot and stick" foreign policy strategy of the United States, which was first used by former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt in Latin America, that is, to attract countries to act according to the intentions of the United States by providing economic benefits, and at the same time not excluding the use of force or other forms of coercion to coerce. To this day, this trick is still tried and tested by the United States all over the world.
The "carrot and stick" policy is one of the reasons why the Venezuelan population is anti-American, but the root cause is oil. Because after Venezuela discovered a large amount of oil in the country, it was unable to develop it and introduced a large number of foreign capital, technology and talents, but this led to the fact that it was foreign capital and Venezuela's middle and senior levels who made money from oil, and ordinary people could not eat the dividends of oil at all. Seeing the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the people complained, Venezuela began to reform. Not only the expulsion of foreign capital, the nationalization of all oil production, but also the development of free health care, free housing and free education.
In this case, Venezuelan nationalism reaches its climax, and whichever candidate is anti-American, the people vote for him. Maduro was a bus driver, an ordinary worker, and an anti-American fighter in Venezuela, the heir of former President Hugo Chávez. But it also laid the root of the problem.
(Venezuelan people take to the streets due to food shortages)
When foreign capital was expelled, the money accumulated from the sale of oil in Venezuela was used for welfare, and oil extraction technology has not been developed for so many years, and the shale oil revolution in the United States broke out, Middle Eastern oil is more cost-effective, and the United States does not buy Venezuelan oil.
Moreover, the United States has also begun to impose comprehensive sanctions on Venezuela and prevent it from exporting its crude oil to Europe and other regions, resulting in a sharp decline in the Venezuelan government's fiscal revenue, a sharp reduction in social welfare, and a serious humanitarian crisis in the country.
In this case, Maduro even compromised and began peace talks with the Venezuelan opposition, while the United States also gave "carrots" and partially relaxed sanctions against Venezuela in the energy sector for a period of six months. Now Maduro has sent another signal to the United States, although the United States has lifted some sanctions, but the Venezuelan side still insists that the United States permanently lift all sanctions against Venezuela.
This is a signal from Maduro, and another signal is that Maduro said that he will not necessarily run in the second half of 2024, and he said that regardless of whether he eventually runs, he will give priority to the interests of his country.
(BRICS countries welcome new members)
It can be seen that both signals are more favorable to the United States, and it seems that the United States has seized the handle of Venezuela, which has also made Maduro hesitate and doubt his own policies.
In fact, if Venezuela wants to change the situation at home and abroad, it does not have to turn to the United States for help, even though the US sanctions have put great pressure on the Venezuelan economy, but there is an opportunity that Maduro must seize, that is, the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
In fact, Maduro also hopes that at the next BRICS summit in 2024, Venezuela will become a full member of the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
At present, the BRICS cooperation mechanism is already a decisive economic force, and Venezuela has a good relationship with the New Development Bank of the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries promote multilateral trade and investment, and it is possible for Venezuela to obtain foreign investment, promote infrastructure construction, and trade in goods and services with other member countries, especially in the energy sector. Once joining BRICS, Venezuela could expand its energy export markets, especially with China and India, which are in high demand for energy.
(Russia holds the rotating presidency of BRICS)
And with the technology of the BRICS countries, Venezuela extracts oil and exports it to China, and the money earned can pay off China's debts. Venezuela can also bypass the US dollar and directly use RMB settlement to build a new oil RMB settlement system in South America. In other words, Venezuela's current predicament, joining the BRICS is a better way to solve it. Moreover, Argentina withdrew from the BRICS expansion, and Venezuela is also a South American country with great development potential, and there is still a chance to join the BRICS.
However, the problem is that if Venezuela wants to join the BRICS, it has to stabilize the situation at home, and there are pro-American forces installed by the United States in Venezuela, and if Maduro hesitates in this situation and intends to compromise with the United States, it is not necessarily a good thing for Venezuela.