TALK: The U.S. Census results show that the political center of gravity continues to shift to the "Sunshine Zone."
Author: Tan Ke
Source: Center for American Studies, Fudan University
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
According to the 2020 Census results released by the U.S. Census Bureau in April, the U.S. population was 331.5 million as of April 1, 2020, an increase of 7.4% compared to a decade ago. This is the 24th census conducted since 1790, and the results will be the basis for the allocation of delegates by states in the House of Representatives over the next decade.
First, the overall population growth has slowed down, and the traditional red state has grown relatively fast.
Compared with 2010, the population growth rate in 2020 is 7.4%. As you can see from the chart, the only one close to this figure is the 1940 census results: a growth rate of 7.3%. The rate of population growth has plummeted, from 21% in 1910 to 7.4% in 2020. There were two special points in time: the census during the Great Depression (a sharp decline in population growth rates) and the 18.5 percent high growth rate during the baby boom in 1960.
Among them, the population growth in the south and west is rapid; the central and western regions and the northeast are slow. The state with the highest rate of growth was Utah, at 18.4 percent. The state with the largest population growth is Texas, which grew from 4 million in 2010 to just 30 million. According to the census chart, states with growth rates of more than 7.4% and the Special Administrative Region include: Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, Delaware, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington DC. Among them, Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, Georgia (2020 blue), South Carolina, Tennessee, etc. are all traditional red states; the only traditional blue states or regions are Washington DC, Virginia, delaware; others, including Nevada, North Carolina, are mostly swing states.
Population growth rates by state for 2010-2020. (Image source: U.S. Census Bureau website)
In addition to factors such as immigration policies and the economic crisis, the main factor affecting the continuous slowdown in population growth is the continuous decline in the birth rate. According to statistics released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in May, the U.S. birth rate has fallen for six consecutive years since 2014 at a rate of 2 percent per year, and in 2020 it has fallen by 4 percent compared to 2019. The fertility rate has also declined since 2014 at a rate of 2% per annum, with the current fertility rate at 55.8 per cent per 1000. At the same time, ageing is accelerating: the growth of people over 65 years old will continue to outpace the growth of young people. Population estimates released in 2010 showed a 35% increase in the population over the age of 65. Over the next 10 years, baby boomers will be 60-80 years old. Utah, the fastest growing population, reflects the impact of high birth rates. The states with the highest birth rates in the United States include South Carolina, North Carolina, Alaska, Utah, and Nebraska. The birth rate in these states is above 13%, and the average birth rate in the United States is around 11%.
Second, the house seats in some states will change, with the "Sunshine Belt" winning and the "Rust Belt" losing.
According to the census results, 6 states will increase seats and 7 states will decrease. The other state seats will not change. Here's how: Texas will add two seats to the House of Representatives; five states, including Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon, will each add one seat; and seven states will include California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Other states' seats in the House of Representatives will remain unchanged. The states that increased the number of seats, except Colorado and Oregon, were all red states (according to the 2020 election results); the states that reduced the number of seats were mostly blue states, and the other five states except Ohio and West Virginia were blue states.
Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, although individually red and blue, but they all have a common feature, that is, they all fall into the "rust belt". These states were once industrial powerhouses for steel, automobiles, coal, etc., but with the advent of the post-industrial era, their glory gradually dimmed, replaced by depressions, "ghost towns". It can be seen that the transition of power from the "rust belt" to the "sun belt" is not a sudden appearance, but a gradual process. In fact, the 2010 census results show that this trend seems to be more pronounced. Texas added four seats; Florida added two; six states added one each, with the major states in the "Sunshine Belt"; the states that lost seats also included New York (2), Illinois, Ohio (2), Michigan, Pennsylvania, and another "rusty" state, Missouri, as well as Louisiana, Iowa, and Massachusetts and New Jersey, the home base of the Northeast Democratic Party. Looking back in history, New York State was once the most populous state in the United States, with House seats falling significantly after 1930-1940 as high as 45,1960 until it fell to 27 seats in 2010, where it continued to fall in 2020. Pennsylvania, which once had 36 seats, continued to decline after 1940 and 1950, falling to 17 in 2020. In turn, Texas has risen from 21-22 in the 1940s and 1950s to 38 today. Florida has risen from single digits to 28 today.
House of Representatives seats change by state: Dark Green States will add 2 seats; Light Green States will add 1 seat; Purple States will lose 1 seat; White States will remain unchanged. (Image source: U.S. Census Bureau)
State
Red/Blue States
(Based on the 2020 election results)
House seat changes
Texas
red
+2
Colorado
blue
+1
Florida
Montana
North carolina
Oregon
California
-1
Illinois
Michigan
New york
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
House seats will change in the states (by box office orientation). (Based on U.S. Census Report)
Judging from the results of this census, it is easy to conclude that power has shifted to the Republican Party, and some people even call the census results a "net gain" for the Republican Party.
Take the situation of California, which is about to lose 1 seat, and Texas, which is about to add 2 seats, as examples. California, the most populous state in the United States, currently has 53 seats in the House of Representatives. In recent years, it's common to hear people moving out of California and to the same warm Texas. Some experts believe that this reflects a trend of people moving inland from coastal areas with high consumption. Still, many more will be heard saying that they have moved out because they cannot stand the high crime rate and the excessive political atmosphere of the left.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 559,000 people moved into Texas from other states in 2019. Among them, the largest number from California, about 80,000. Some people are worried about the californianization of Texas and shout the slogan "Don't turn Texas into California." At one point, Texas was marked as a "yellow" swing state during the 2020 election, or a sign. If you leave California for Texas, most of the reasons are to avoid California's high housing prices, traffic congestion, and not because of the political atmosphere, it may not be impossible to dye Texas blue.
The "Sunshine Belt" has traditionally been Republican territory, and more and more residents are moving to these states, will the result be an expansion of the Republican vote base or will it be reversed into the Democratic camp? This should still be a question that needs to be examined. Still, William Frey, a population expert at Brookings, argues that "people who voted for Democrats in the past are now moving to the 'Sunshine Belt,' which would weaken the influence of republican states." And, he also noted, "In the last presidential election, we've seen Arizona and Georgia, two states that have long voted Republicans in presidential elections, and this time elected Democrat Joe Biden, and a good reason to explain this phenomenon is due to demographic changes." Moreover, he believes that this model will continue to affect the US election in the future.
The census released in April does not include statistics disaggregated by race, age, or sex. Statistics for this section will be released in August this year. The new Electoral College map will take effect in January 2023.
Think tank of the digital economy
Political Science and International Relations Forum
In order to better serve the construction of digital China, serve the construction of the "Belt and Road", and strengthen theoretical exchanges and practical exchanges in the process of digital economy construction. Experts and scholars from China's digital economy and the "Belt and Road" construction have established a digital economy think tank to contribute to the construction of digital China. Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, served as honorary president, and well-known young scholars Huang Rihan and Chu Yin led the way. The Political Science and International Relations Forum is a dedicated platform under the umbrella of the Digital Economy Think Tank.