A-shares fell by more than 4 billion yuan to enter the "bottom", which directions are highly sought after

In 2024, A-shares not only failed to achieve a "good start", but fell again, and even lost 2,900 points. On 9 January, the market rebounded, with major indices closing in the red. At the same time, the northbound funds that had previously "fled" were differentiated, with a small net purchase of 18.75 million yuan, of which 194 million yuan was a net purchase in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 175 million yuan was a net sale in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

In the process of repeated market declines, more than 4.4 billion yuan of funds have entered the market through equity ETFs since this week. The reporter combed through the data and found that on the one hand, ETF products in the direction of CSI 300, Kechuang 50, and ChiNext Index are "buying more and more", and on the other hand, the dividend theme products that have performed well recently are also favored.

In this regard, some of the interviewed fund managers said that the current A-share market is still showing a volatile trend as a whole, or deducing the market dominated by valuation repair. It should be noted that if the subsequent rise in the stock price of cyclical stocks continues to attract capital inflows, it may cause a correction in overcrowded trading.

Cyclical stocks lead the way

Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has once again fallen into a volatile correction. 截至1月9日收盘，三大指数小幅收涨，其中上证指数报收2893.25‬点，单日微涨0.2%；深证成指上涨0.27%至8971.72‬点，创业板指涨0.36%至1750.78‬点；三大指数的年内跌幅分别缩至2.75%、5.81%、7.43%。

Under the market adjustment, various funds are also constantly taking advantage of ETFs to buy the bottom against the trend. Wind data shows that as of January 9, the total share of equity ETF products in the whole market has increased by 10.223 billion since the beginning of this year. Among them, on January 8 and 9, there was a net inflow of more than 2 billion yuan, and the total "gold absorption" in the past two days exceeded 4.4 billion yuan.

Yicai combed the data and found that the most favored target in this round of funds is the ETF products tracking the CSI 300, which have received a net inflow of 2.875 billion yuan in the past two days, and the products in the direction of Kechuang 50 and ChiNext are also very popular, with a net inflow of more than 1.76 billion yuan and 1.222 billion yuan respectively.

However, from the perspective of performance, the range returns of the products in the above three directions have all fallen since 2024, and the phenomenon of "buying more and more" is significant. Taking the STAR 50 Index as an example, Wind data shows that as of January 9, there are currently 10 ETF products tracking the STAR 50, with an average decline of 7.87% during the year.

In this regard, a person from a fund company told reporters that the attributes of ETF simple and transparent, low fees, and on-site trading are incomparable to over-the-counter funds.

In addition, there are also stable dividend theme-related funds favored by funds, which have received significant net inflows since the beginning of the year. Wind data shows that as of January 9, the net inflow of dividend low-volatility ETF, dividend low-volatility 100 ETF, dividend ETF, dividend ETF E Fund and other products has exceeded 300 million yuan year-to-date, with a total of more than 2.9 billion yuan of capital holdings.

Different from the above-mentioned situation, the performance of the dividend theme direction is more impressive, such as the dividend low-volatility ETF range rose by 3.17%, outperforming the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period. "Since 2024, the performance of the high-dividend sector has continued, and the important advantage of the dividend strategy with strong defensive attributes has become more prominent, so the related themes have gained the favor of many individual investors. A relevant track fund manager told reporters.

Judging from the recent market, among the 31 industries in Shenwan, only 4 sectors are "red". Among them, the coal sector, which has the characteristics of high dividends and high dividends, led the way with an annual increase of 6.18%. The utilities, petroleum and petrochemicals, and banking sectors rose 1.11%, 0.42%, and 0.31% respectively. However, the top-performing technology direction in 2023 has suffered a pullback, with the electronics and computer sectors bottoming out with a decline of 9.36% and 9.19% respectively during the year.

Where are the next opportunities?

"The weakness of the A-share market is mainly due to low market sentiment and lack of confidence, and the current market valuation is at a historically low level, and it is extremely cost-effective. Morgan Stanley Fund told Yicai that in the short term, it will be optimistic about the low-volatility dividend sector and the technology growth sector.

From a medium and long-term perspective, Morgan Stanley Fund believes that it is necessary to consider the policy tone, industrial development trends, performance realization and other perspectives, and maintain the high-end manufacturing sector that is in line with the self-reliance and self-improvement of science and technology and truly benefits from the rapid development of the AI industry, and the high-end manufacturing sector that maintains a high level of prosperity and benefits from the continuous increase in policies.

Gao Nan, chief equity investment officer and general manager of the equity investment department of Yongying Fund, also maintains a relatively optimistic attitude towards the trend of A-shares in 2024. He told the first financial reporter that from the perspective of risk premium, the current A-share is still in the high odds range, and valuation repair may become the main driving force of the market in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year needs to pay attention to the dual support of valuation and profitability.

Talking about the hot coal sector since the beginning of the year, Yang Zhenjian, fund manager of Bosera Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that under the background of the gradual bottoming out and stabilization of domestic PPI, the leading companies in the coal and non-ferrous metals industry have highlighted their stability advantages in a volatile environment and obtained additional funds by virtue of their long-term stable operation, low valuation and high dividends.

"Cyclical industries generally have the characteristics of low valuations and high dividends, especially the coal industry, which has a dividend yield of more than 7%, which can provide a more certain source of income in a volatile market environment. Yang Zhenjian analysis, in the medium and long term, the coal non-ferrous industry also has investment value, in the context of the transformation of the domestic energy system, the supply of traditional resources will face long-term constraints, but the policy is clear "first establish and then break" principle, demand will still maintain growth, so the cyclical industry will face a continuous tight supply and demand pattern, good for long-term investment value.

On the other hand, the reporter noticed that since the adjustment began in mid-2021, the pharmaceutical industry, which has experienced more than 2 years of long-term adjustment, seems to have returned to the field of vision of institutional investors. In the past month, more than 70 companies in the pharmaceutical sector have been surveyed by institutions, especially in innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices and other subdivisions.

For example, on December 22, 2023, Chipscreen Biosciences accepted a survey from nearly 90 institutional investors such as Huatai Securities, Great Wall Securities, and Huaxi Securities, which mentioned the progress of innovative drugs. In addition, there are many companies such as Jiu'an Medical, Zuoli Pharmaceutical, and Warner Pharmaceutical, which have recently attracted many institutions to come to investigate.

"The development direction of China's original innovative drugs must be first in class and best in class, that is, 'global new'. Either to be globally optimal on a target, or to develop a new target. Chen Ximing, fund manager of Bosera Fund Equity Investment Department III, told reporters that the development direction of China's original innovative drugs has quietly changed, from the Chinese market in the past, to the Chinese market and the global market.

Chen Ximing believes that China's original innovative drugs have gradually transitioned from imitation to independence, and many companies have gained global comparative advantages in subdivided fields. "From an investment point of view, we prioritize companies with 'global new' potential and focus on their R&D capabilities."