At the beginning of 2024, several pieces of information about the new car-making force Gaohe Automobile are fermenting on the Internet.
Although Gaohe Automobile refuted the rumors that the company's operation was normal, the outside world still had doubts.
The consensus in the industry is that this year's new energy vehicles will face more brutal competition.
The knockout rounds have begun.
2023 is the highlight of Continental's automotive industry.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of automobiles in mainland China will be about 30 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%.
Overseas, Chinese cars are also raising their eyebrows.
Continental's automobile exports are expected to reach 5.4 million units, surpassing Japan for the first time and ranking first in the world.
New energy vehicles are also the "conspicuous package" of the automotive industry.
In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 9 million units.
What's even more eye-catching is the speed, it took 27 years for the continent's new energy vehicles to go from the first to the 10 million, and only 17 months from the 10 million to the 20 million.
The overall performance of the new energy automobile industry is bright, but when you break it down, the joys and sorrows are not the same.
According to the summary table of the achievement of the annual sales target of Chinese automobiles, in 2023, only Ideal, VOYAH, BYD, and Geely have achieved their annual sales targets.
A summary of the achievement of the full-year sales target for Chinese automobiles
In terms of completion, the ideal ranks first.
In terms of sales of new energy vehicles, BYD took the lead.
On August 9 last year, BYD's 5 million new energy vehicles rolled off the assembly line, becoming the first car company in the world to reach this milestone.
Looking only at the category of pure electric vehicles, BYD will surpass Tesla in sales in 2023 and become the world's largest seller of electric vehicles.
Compared with new car-making forces such as "Wei Xiaoli", Nezha's sales are a bit bleak.
In 2023, Nezha has only completed half of the year's goal.
To make matters worse, sales in 2023 will drop by more than 10% compared to the delivery of 152073 units in 2022.
In the face of unsatisfactory sales performance, Nezha Automobile CEO Daniel Zhang reviewed on Weibo:
There are many reasons why Nezha did not do well in 2023, including the failure to connect the old and new products when switching, and the rhythm was chaotic, the price of new products was too high, and although it was adjusted later, it missed the opportunity, the loss-making product line greatly reduced production, and the old communication method.
Nezha fell behind for its own reasons.
From the outside, it's because the industry is too volatile.
The industry is too volatile, and the players who can't move will have only one ending: falling behind, or even falling.
At the beginning of 2024, several pieces of information about the suspension of arrears and the shutdown of factories of Gaohe Automobile fermented on the Internet.
Some bloggers said that Gaohe Automobile will be the next new force to fall.
Subsequently, Gaohe Automobile refuted the rumors that the operation was normal, and the work of R&D, production, marketing and delivery was progressing normally.
Gaohe Automobile's statement to refute rumors
According to data from third-party platforms, the sales volume of Gaohe Automobile in 2023 will be around 8,000 units.
Although it has nearly doubled compared to the previous year, it is far behind the top new car manufacturers.
To survive in 2024 may be the voice of many car companies, including Gaohe Automobile.
In June last year, at BYD's annual shareholders' meeting, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu bluntly said, "The automotive industry has entered the knockout stage." ”
If the key word of the 2023 rim is "involution", then the main tone of the 2024 rim may be "elimination".
Compared to other automotive markets around the world, the Chinese market is too special.
No other country has as many car brands as China.
At its peak, in 2018, there were more than 400 domestic auto brands.
Five years have passed, and more than 300 car companies have left the market.
In 2024, three major variables will accelerate this "knockout game":
Variable one, a new phase.
According to the forecast of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle market will reach 40% in 2024.
The higher the penetration rate, the more popular new energy vehicles are.
This is a good thing for large car companies.
But for small car companies, it could be a disaster.
40% is an important development node, marking a new stage for China's new energy vehicles from the niche market to the mass market.
Trends in retail sales of new energy vehicles over the years
In the niche stage, new technologies have just been popularized, industry standards are different, products are mixed, and the market is in a stage of exploration and savage growth.
At this stage, most of the consumers who are willing to buy new energy vehicles are early adopters of new technologies, with novelty and high tolerance for products, which gives small car companies and new car companies room to survive.
However, in the mass stage, industry standards are gradually unified, products are differentiated, and the market is gradually mature.
At this stage, consumers who are willing to buy new energy vehicles are more inclined to choose head brands from novelty to practicality.
The market share will be concentrated in the head, and small enterprises will be eliminated.
Variable two, new players.
A new track will naturally attract new players.
Although new car-making forces such as Tesla, Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid have also emerged in the United States, the sales of other car companies are almost negligible except for Tesla and Rivian.
Looking at the Chinese market, the annual sales of Ideal, Xpeng, Weilai, and Leap have all exceeded 100,000 units, gaining a firm foothold.
Ideal has set a sales target of 800,000 units in 2024.
"Wei Xiaoli" will launch a greater impact on traditional automobile shopping malls and other new forces.
2024 is also the year of the launch of Xiaomi Auto, with an optimistic estimate of 100,000 units per year.
As the first Internet company to build cars in person, Xiaomi will be a major variable in China's new energy vehicle market.
It is worth noting that at the Xiaomi automotive technology conference on December 28 last year, Xiaomi disclosed the latest achievements of the five self-developed core technology systems of electric drive, battery, large die-casting, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit.
Xiaomi's "self-designed 9,100-ton integrated large die-casting equipment cluster system"
As a new player, Xiaomi has only been building a car for 1,000 days, why can it quickly establish its own technical system?
This is because China's new energy vehicle supply chain is too perfect, which lowers the threshold for car manufacturing.
According to industry insiders, in the Yangtze River Delta region, it only takes 4 hours to produce a new energy vehicle.
The lower barrier to entry may attract more players to the game.
Variable three, new gameplay.
The entry of new players has brought some new ways to play in the automotive industry.
There is a Moore's law in the semiconductor industry, that is, chip products must be updated once every 18 months.
New players are innovating faster and launching products more frequently, driving the entire new energy vehicle industry into the "Moore era".
Statistics show that in 2023 alone, more than 1,100 new energy models will be launched in the Chinese market.
The M9 and Huawei winter all-scenario press conference
Car companies that can't keep up with product updates will also be out.
On the sales side, there are also new ways to play.
In the era of fuel vehicles, the reason why China can accommodate many car companies is that China's market is too large, and the third and fourth tier cities are different from the first and second tier cities.
Car companies can form industry barriers through the layout of 4S stores, and they can also hold their own one-third of an acre.
New players generally adopt the direct sales model, and the mode of online order and offline delivery has broken the boundary of 4S stores.
This means that as long as the products of car companies are good enough and the sales scope covers the whole country, they are no longer limited by 4S stores.
This is undoubtedly a dimensionality reduction blow to car companies that rely on 4S stores to maintain market share.
The strong are stronger, and the weak are weaker, which is the law of the market.
The "knockout round" in 2024 will be even more brutal.
At an event in February last year, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, asserted:
More than 100 new energy vehicle companies will survive the fittest in the competition, and finally concentrate on a few leading enterprises.
The question is, who will win this knockout round?
If China's new energy vehicle companies want to have the last laugh, there are no more than three paths:
One is to become stronger.
The big waves are sweeping the sand, and the rest is definitely the most competitive.
In addition to advanced technology, stable supply chain, and ultimate cost performance, there is also precise positioning.
Taking Ideal as an example, although some people call it a "pseudo new energy vehicle", with the positioning of a family car, Ideal has become a new power car company with the highest sales.
The price war in 2024 will be more intense, and brands that occupy the minds of consumers will build an additional moat.
The second is to go to sea.
Rather than rolling in China, it is better to look for new opportunities in the vast overseas market, which has gradually become the consensus of Chinese car companies.
In recent years, the pace of Chinese cars going overseas is accelerating, and some car companies have tasted the sweetness.
For example, Chery Automobile, which does not have a strong presence in China, will export 937148 cars in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 101.1%, ranking first in the export of Chinese brand passenger cars for 21 consecutive years.
For Chery Automobile, nearly half of its production is sold overseas.
If it is only in China, Chery Automobile will not be able to achieve a high growth rate of more than 50% year-on-year.
Chery Automobile's cumulative sales in 2023
As analyzed by the Correction Bureau in the article "Countervailing Investigation by the EU, China's Electric Vehicles Are Profitable", in the face of rising trade protectionism, Chinese car companies must operate in compliance overseas and carry out localized production at the same time.
China's new energy vehicles already have scientific and technological innovation capabilities, a complete industrial chain and scale advantages, and there is a lot to be done overseas.
The third is cross-border.
As mentioned above, BYD surpassed Tesla in sales in 2023 to become the world's largest seller of electric vehicles.
On the social media platform X, some netizens compared Tesla and BYD.
In response, Musk said that compared with car companies, Tesla is an AI/robotics company.
Musk's response on the social media platform X
It's not that Musk is looking for himself to get under the stairs.
As early as September last year, Musk publicly stated that almost all of Tesla's long-term value will come from AI and robots, including cars and humanoid robots.
Earlier, in 2022, Tesla launched its first humanoid robot, Optimus Prime, which can complete repetitive tasks and be used to solve labor shortages in the future.
Once the humanoid robot is commercialized, Tesla will gain new room for growth.
Tesla's crossover enlightens us that car companies should not only stare at the one-third of an acre of land for making cars.
The journey of Chinese enterprises should be a sea of stars.