The reason why A-shares fell for five consecutive days! The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points, and nearly 4,900 companies fell below the historical record
The more terrible thing is that it has fallen for five consecutive days, and the GEM index has fallen by more than 1% for five consecutive days, falling below the bottom of the epidemic and falling back to the position at the end of 2019. From the perspective of valuation, the GEM index rolling P/E ratio fell to 26 times, lower than the 28 times at the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
However, the funds are still sold without looking back, today's A-share trend is even more desperate, all the way to the lowest point, the most tenacious Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2900 points to approach the previous low, although the end of the Huijin began to buy ETF protection, but no one has followed, can not stir up a little storm, after the rebound is greater selling pressure.
Now it is basically certain that at the end of last year, in order to boost the stock market, the management restricted the net selling of public funds, and after the year, due to the increased redemption pressure, the net selling of institutions was released.
You may not understand why the "liberalization of institutional net selling" has such a big impact on the stock market, but in fact, this is similar to the effect of "circuit breaker", which is a stampede caused by the loss of liquidity.
First of all, the first layer, as an institution, now that the management has released the net selling, you will definitely sell in order to deal with the redemption; the second layer, you will think that in case of "restricting net selling" later, you will take advantage of the current window period to exceed the net selling; the third layer, the funds that know the news are afraid that you will sell and smash the market, and will sell first, or take advantage of the trend to short to make money. As a result, a kind of prisoner's dilemma is formed, and the result of the game is that everyone rushes to sell.
However, this matter is not as outrageous as the market rumors. First, there is no net selling restriction on private placements, and private placement positions are at historically low levels, and secondly, "net selling is restricted" It is a window guidance, it may only be for large and medium-sized public offerings, if it is a comprehensive ban, there will be a run, imagine that banks restrict withdrawals, so there are only part of the public offerings after the holiday, but due to the game, it will trigger a wider range of selling; finally, the time point is the end of the year, from the end of the bull market in 2021, the institution as a whole has been reducing positions, and there have been many rounds of collective selling, and most of the positions that can be reduced are estimated to have been reduced.
However, the most desperate thing now is that there is no turnaround, now the market self-repair mechanism has been destroyed, since it is a liquidity crisis, it is necessary to have a large amount of money to carry out liquidity support, in order to solve this spiral killing, but Huijin buying is just scratching the itch of the boots, the leveling fund has not seen a shadow, and the vicious circle is difficult to break.
After the holiday, the northbound funds were quite benevolent, and the selling efforts were not large, and they did not take advantage of the fire to rob, and only sold 4.3 billion today. From 2018 to the present, northbound funds have bought more than 1.4 trillion A-shares, even if it was a bear market last year, it was a net inflow of 43.7 billion, and now all of them are trapped.
Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.42%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.76%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.88%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.99%. The turnover of the two cities shrank sharply to 0.65 trillion, nearly 4,900 stocks fell, and less than 400 rose, which should be a record.
Risk Warning:
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently