Text: Win the intelligence station immediately
At the end of 2023, with NetEase Digital Reading's article "3 yuan drinks are disappearing collectively", the topic of 3 yuan drinks disappearing was once again sent to the hot search, rising to the second place in the hot search, and the time on the list was as long as 12 hours.
This is not the first time that the topic of the disappearance of 3 yuan drinks has been on the hot search, and the topic of [drink] was searched on the hot search time machine, and in the past 65 days alone, the topic of the disappearance of 3 yuan drinks has been on the hot search on Weibo three times.
In November last year, we cooperated with the Beverage Industry Chain Window to release the Beverage Price Watch (Beverage Market Price Watch, April to October 2023). When the topic is still warm, based on its own offline retail monitoring network, it has observed some different data conclusions from NetEase's digital reading, "whether the 3 yuan drink is disappearing" and "whether the drink is more and more expensive". This week, based on the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, we will talk about the "disappearance of ternary beverages".
The data cited in this article are all from the offline retail monitoring network. The offline retail monitoring network covers five mainstream offline retail formats, including hypermarkets, large supermarkets, small supermarkets, convenience stores, and grocery stores, and deeply covers the core urban agglomerations across the country, with a total coverage of more than 60,000 points. At present, there are more than 350,000 brands on sale, more than 14 million product barcodes, and more than 5 billion orders covered annually.
Look at "3 yuan drink disappears" again
In the video of Netease Reading 3 Yuan Drink disappearing, the title, arguments and arguments are thrown out at the beginning:
- Title: 3 yuan drinks are disappearing collectively (article) / 3 yuan drinks, can't be bought? (food)
- Argument 1: Drinks at convenience stores are getting more and more expensive now
- Argument 2: The "3 Yuan Era" in the beverage industry is almost over
- Argument 1: Most of the drinks in convenience stores are priced at more than 5 yuan, and the data source randomly selected several convenience stores in Guangzhou as samples
- Argument 2: Coffee and fruit juice drinks are the most expensive, carbonated drinks are the most affordable, and the data source is a random sample of several convenience stores in Guangzhou
Through "the price of most drinks in some convenience stores in the first-tier city of Guangzhou is > 5 yuan", "the era of 3 yuan in the beverage industry is almost over, and the 3 yuan drinks are disappearing collectively", is this established?
Most convenience stores > 5 yuan = 3 yuan in the beverage industry, the end of the era?
In this derivation, at least two parts of the research level have been overlooked: the proportion of beverages in first-tier cities in the overall beverage market sales scale / the proportion of convenience store beverage sales in the omni-channel beverage sales market.
According to the monitoring of the offline retail market, both of them occupy a small part of the market (share < 50%) in the proportion of first-tier cities in the overall beverage market and convenience stores in the overall sales of beverages in various formats. If all the survey samples are based on the condition of "Guangzhou and convenience stores", the proportion of sales in the beverage market that can be covered may be low under the intersection of "first-tier cities" and "convenience stores".
The different selling prices of beverage products in different channels are another issue of business reality. For example, in the "special channel" (special channel usually includes hospitals, entertainment venues, tourist attractions, etc.) and "catering channels", the sales price of the beverage will be significantly higher than that of the retail scene, or even several times higher than the price of the retail scene, but its price is not representative.
Even in the traditional retail format, the sales price of the same product in different channels can reach a gap of more than 10%, based on the offline retail monitoring network of Win Now for the average sales price of some large-scale single products in 2023, the average sales price of convenience stores and grocery stores is in a high position in the average price of various formats. In contrast, large supermarkets and hypermarkets are relatively cheap. Based on the data, it can be seen that the selling price of some products in hypermarkets and supermarkets is even 15% lower than that of convenience stores.
Back to the two labels of "first-tier cities, convenience stores". Convenience store drinks are getting more expensive, is it a problem with drinks?
Zhuang Chenchao, the founder of Convenience Bee, once shared a Convenience Bee's definition of "Double 15" for convenience stores--- 15 minutes and 15 yuan, which not only meets the needs of customers in the shopping journey within 15 minutes, but also has a unit price of 15 yuan. A 15-minute shopping journey means that the number of consumers covered by a single store is concentrated and limited, and the unit price of 15 yuan means that the transaction scale of convenience stores is not large, and small orders are the mainstay. Under these two constraints, in order to maintain the operation of 24-hour convenience stores and high labor costs, in addition to reducing operating costs, the high gross profit of goods has almost become the only way to increase efficiency, which is why the sales price of goods in convenience stores is generally higher than that of large formats.
Is the $3 drink still there?
Based on the data in the offline retail monitoring network, we pulled the top 100 SKUs (600ml and below, single pieces excluding sets, boxes and other combination packaging forms) of the whole city level (county-level and above cities), all formats, and beverage categories (excluding packaged water, dairy products, etc.) in sales throughout 2023, and through their average transaction prices and categories, to get a glimpse of the overall price band composition of beverages.
Among the top 100 beverage SKUs, the product with the lowest average price is Yili Youyu Yogurt Drink Original 250ml, with an average price of 1.8 yuan, and the highest and only product with an average price of more than 8 yuan is Starbucks Star Selection Coffee Café Latte 270ml, with an average price of 10.64 yuan. Based on the data, although there are fewer products below 3 yuan in the TopSKUs, accounting for only 10% of the share, if the products below 3 yuan are relaxed to about 3 yuan, which is less than 4 yuan, the overall cumulative proportion rises to 34%;
In the Top 100 beverage SKUs, we have also sorted out the price situation in the category dimension:
It can be seen that among the top 100 SKUs, the average prices of various types of items vary greatly, including carbonated drinks, sparkling water, and soda, as well as herbal tea and sour plum soup, which are mainly included in traditional Asian beverages, are still in the average price range of about 3 yuan. The most expensive price is functional drinks, including energy drinks, sports drinks and other sub-categories, and it is also the only category with an average price of more than 5 yuan.
Through the above data, it can also be seen that beverages of about 3 yuan still occupy one-third of the market, and the average price of various types of items has also decreased significantly from the average price in the sample of "Guangzhou convenience stores".
Are drinks getting more expensive?
Whether beverages are getting more expensive or not, we also illustrate through the average price data of hot items. Based on the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, we have pulled the monthly average price changes of several products with the top market share in the categories of ready-to-drink milk tea, ready-to-drink tea, carbonated drinks, sports drinks, and non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juices in 2023 to observe the changes in the overall price of beverages in 2023.
The four products in the chart above are all products with a positive trend line of the monthly average price for the whole year. It can be seen that although the trend line is positive, the "price increase" reflected in the actual average transaction price is not as aggressive as the increase of five cents and one piece described in some announcements. In fact, only Oriental Leaves increased by about 1 cent in the average price change at the beginning and end of the year, and the trend line of the rest of the products was basically the same.
The six products in the second set of charts are products with a negative monthly average trend line for the whole year, including "super products" such as Coca-Cola 500ml. In the above two sets of product average price tables, Master Kong Ice Tea 500ml and 1L are listed. Master Kong iced black tea, as the first product to bear the brunt of this year's beverage price increase turmoil, the actual performance of the monthly average price is far less than the "500ml rose by five cents, 1L pack rose by one yuan" mentioned in its notice, and the actual average price performance of 1L products was even in a state of slight decline.
The products selected above are only the "head products" in various categories, which may not represent the whole picture of the beverage market, but they have a certain representative significance for the true reflection of the "general price increase" of beverages. Whether it is for the category or for the product and the format, it is of sufficient significance to look at the average price and price changes in the context of sufficient scale, and for some regional single products, or some products that only go through specific channels, the smaller the scale, the greater the price fluctuations.
epilogue
Based on the above data on the different prices of products in different channels, the price band distribution of TOP SKUs in the beverage category, and the price changes of popular items in the category in 2023, there are sufficient choices for products below 3 yuan or about in the beverage market as a whole.
Postscript: A fragile relationship requires more precious faith
In 2023, the beverage industry has experienced countless discussions and controversies about beverage price increases, the disappearance of ternary beverages, and the disappearance of low-priced beverages. At this moment, in addition to the tsunami of questions and cynicism from consumers, many beverage brands are also experiencing the backlash brought by the price increase caused by the new consumption wave in 2018, and the pain is particularly strong at this moment.
In the context of a lack of consumer confidence, and in the context of the resurgence of price-performance ratio, the relationship between consumers and brands has become fragile and fragile. At the end of the video "3 Yuan Drinks, Can't Buy It", the video gave a "counter-intuitive" answer to the question of why the beverage market has become expensive: "It's not that everyone won't buy it if it's expensive, but it's just that it has to become expensive, create a different concept, and tell more new stories in order to meet the ever-changing needs of consumers." The comment area of the Weibo video, which has millions of views, is full of countless consumers with grievances, shouting: drinks are expensive, drinks are not good for health, drink less drinks, drink more boiled water.
"One whale falls, all things are born", from the perspective of traffic, social attention, and topic popularity, this is a successful content and topic. The turmoil once again verified the traffic potential of this topic, allowing more KOLs, more media, and more bloggers to quickly plunge into it, feed on it, and "store water and momentum" for the next outbreak of the topic.
I just hope that in this moment of "forging ahead", consumers, brands, media, and everyone can regain their precious confidence.