In the blue Indian Ocean, a game that has attracted the attention of international politics is quietly unfolding. The Chinese research ship "Xiangyanghong 03" has been in the spotlight, triggering tensions and backlash from India and countries in the South Asian region. At the beginning of 2024, the Indian media revealed China's plans for deep-water exploration in the southern Indian Ocean, as well as India's strong opposition. The incident is a stark reminder of India's concerns about China's rise in military and geopolitical power, as well as signs of weakening influence in South Asia. Let's dive into this political drama in the Indian Ocean.
First, India's concerns about China's deep-water exploration in the Indian Ocean are not unfounded. India views the Indian Ocean as a strategic location, and Chinese research vessels are conducting deep-sea exploration in the vicinity of India's naval test launch of the Agni-3 medium-range ballistic missile. India's concerns are not unfounded, but are based on realistic concerns about national security. India is worried that China is actually surveying and mapping the seabed of the Indian Ocean under the cover of scientific research in preparation for the entry of Chinese naval warships into the Indian Ocean in the future. This is not just a threat to India, but a potential impact on the entire South Asian region.
India's concern about China's frequent activities in South Asia stems both from geopolitical considerations and from a lack of self-confidence. India has long seen itself as the hegemon of South Asia, but China's rise has put pressure on it. India fears that China's activities will reduce its grip on South Asia, which is inconsistent with its perceived regional hegemony. Therefore, India's strong warnings to Sri Lanka and the Maldives are essentially an attempt to preserve its geopolitical position in South Asia.
Sri Lanka has opted for a temporary compromise in the face of strong pressure from India. However, this may also be due to realpolitik considerations, especially with regard to the upcoming parliamentary elections. In order to avoid the opposition as a result of this incident, Sri Lanka has chosen to temporarily accommodate India's wishes. This shows that India's influence in South Asia is still huge, but it also indicates that this influence may be weakening.
At the same time, the Maldives has publicly demanded that India withdraw its troops from its territory, which has become a seismic change in the political landscape of South Asia. This suggests that the South Asian countries' overly harsh control of India has caused dissatisfaction. The change is a dangerous signal for India, signaling that its dominance in South Asia may no longer be absolute. South Asian countries are beginning to show a willingness to be independent and no longer willing to rely on India's snort in all aspects. The Maldives was the first to fire the first shot against India, and this may be the beginning of other countries in South Asia to follow suit.
However, India's hardline approach to South Asia could lead to its isolation in the region. Discontent with India is building up in South Asian countries, and it is likely that a wave of common revolt will form. India should review its policies in the region and seek a more egalitarian and cooperative relationship rather than an overly assertive approach. Otherwise, South Asian countries may follow the example of the Maldives and find an independent path to development.
Overall, the political landscape of the Indian Ocean is changing dramatically. China's activities in the Indian Ocean have caused tensions in India, and South Asian countries are gradually becoming suspicious of India's influence. India should be cautious in its relations with South Asian countries and seek a win-win development path. Otherwise, its hegemony in this strategic area may face greater challenges, and South Asian countries will usher in a more independent and autonomous future. This political drama in the Indian Ocean is destined to continue for years to come.