For the first time since the founding of the People's Republic of China, population growth has been negative, but it is almost impossible to reverse this situation. This cruel fact is too abrupt, but it is reasonable.
The Chinese population is growing negatively
At the end of 2022, the total population of the country was 1.412 billion, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of last year. There were 9.56 million births throughout the year, with a birth rate of 6.77. The number of deaths was 10.41 million, with a mortality rate of 7.37 per cent, and the natural growth rate of the population was -0.6 per cent.
Although the country has been gradually relaxing the birth policy since the implementation of the "single second child" in 2013, on the whole, the population growth rate is still declining.
As soon as the "two-child policy" was opened, some population experts predicted the future population growth rate of our country with great optimism. Some experts even boasted that such a policy would greatly boost the willingness to have births and "skyrocket" our population by 50 million.
However, this is not the case, and in the last decade, the rapid population growth did not take place, as experts expected, but for the first time in 61 years, negative growth.
Although 0.6% may not seem like much, 850,000 people should not be underestimated. And, judging by the current situation, the population of our country will continue to decrease, and by 2023 this number is likely to exceed 850,000.
Along with it, there are a series of economic and social problems such as the fading of the demographic dividend, the increase in pension pressure, and the shrinking of the consumer market.
A comparison between the negative population growth and the past can also give us some inspiration. The last time China's population growth was negative was back in the 60s of the last century. In 1960, the mainland's population growth rate reached -4.60 per thousand, showing a relatively obvious downward trend.
However, it was due to three years of suffering, natural and man-made disasters inside, and hostility and blockade between the United States and the Soviet Union outside, and it was precisely in such a difficult situation that the phenomenon of population decline occurred.
Of course, it is also a natural development trend and a normal situation for population growth to decline to a certain extent, but we should also be vigilant.
Today, when the number of marriages is decreasing, the average age of marriage is rising, and the number of single people is increasing, it is no longer just a matter of one person's life, but an issue related to the entire society and economy.
Why people don't want to get married and have children
Along with the progress of society, the marital situation in China has also undergone dramatic changes: the marriage rate has declined, the divorce rate has risen, and the age of first marriage has been delayed.
Whether after the opening of the second child in 2016, or at the urging of parents and the call of the government, young people are very reluctant to get married, especially the number of couples has risen sharply. So, what is it that causes young people nowadays not to like having children?
First of all, the new era has an open mind, an independent economy, and an inclusive society.
With the economic and social development of the mainland, young people are now more independent financially and ideologically.
Especially modern women, they are no longer like women in the previous feudal society, they can only be dependent on men and bound to the family all their lives, but have more opportunities to choose the life they want and realize their own life value.
A pluralistic society respects everyone's right to choose, including the right to marry and have children. The shackling or exploitation of women in modern society has been greatly reduced, and women will not be scorned or shouted at because they do not get married.
Of course, in addition to social tolerance and the emancipation of women's minds, there is also a very important reason for the rising cost of living, the pressure of work and the limited energy to raise children.
To get married and have children means to have a so-called bride price, a house, a car, and all these things cannot be successfully married.
And in big cities, a house can easily run into millions, and some may even run into tens of millions.
The cost of children's education is also extremely expensive, especially now that the phenomenon of "chicken babies", parents have made efforts a hundred times that of the past, which also discourages some young people.
With the decline of population, it will naturally attract the attention of society, and how to solve this problem has also become the top priority of contemporary Chinese people.
How to increase the population
China's declining fertility rate is not unique. In fact, this phenomenon has become a popular "trend" in some more developed countries, such as Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
There are three main reasons for this: first, infertility due to physical reasons; second, "unwillingness to have children" due to economic reasons; and third, physiological rejection.
In addition to the above reasons, another important point is the attitude of society and government towards childbearing.
In short, the state should intensify the adjustment of the fertility policy, improve the inclusiveness of the fertility policy, and systematically create a policy environment conducive to childbirth.
Of course, a single policy measure cannot determine the increase in the fertility rate, and only by establishing a set of family support programs covering marriage, childbirth, education, housing, pension, social security, etc., can we ensure the all-round development of the family and promote the family's willingness to have children through the rational allocation of public services and public resources.
Taking into account the different levels of economic development in different regions, the state should gradually expand the scope of free and compulsory education, and take the lead in achieving full coverage of pre-school and senior high school education in economically developed areas.
Promoting a balance between family, career and self-development among women is a key measure to increase their willingness to have children, such as protecting women's labour rights, extending parental leave for working women, helping women return to work after childbirth, and providing them with childcare services.
On the whole, the building of the family planning system on the mainland is still in its initial stage, and there is considerable room for policy. Population and fertility decisions are affected by a variety of factors, and it is necessary to formulate a set of supporting policies for family welfare, which also requires our joint efforts.