Over the past week, the Russian army has launched large-scale air strikes across the territory of Ukraine, and the core military-industrial complex and air defense systems of the Ukrainian capital have been hit hard. The Ukrainian army immediately retaliated, but its means of attacking in Russia were limited, and the impact on the Russian army was not great.
At the same time, the battle between the Russian and Ukrainian armies on the line of contact is still fierce. Due to the huge losses of personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian army in the summer counteroffensive, the Russian army has firmly grasped the initiative on the battlefield, while the Ukrainian army has suffered losses in almost all directions!
In the Avadiivka direction, the situation facing the Ukrainian army is the most difficult!
This most important military fortress of the Ukrainian army has been surrounded by the Russian army on three sides, and the gap in the encirclement to the west is getting smaller and smaller!
In recent times, the advance of the Russian army in the city of Avadiivka and the coking plant has been extremely slow. The reason is very simple, when the Ukrainian army is still running out of ammunition and food, the Russian army storms the city and the coking plant, and there may be very serious casualties. Secondly, the city has been surrounded on three sides, and the only supply line is covered by the fire of Russian drones and various artillery, and with the Russian army occupying the initiative on the battlefield, the Russian army does not need to launch a costly assault.
The Russian army only needs to repeatedly destroy the supply convoy of the Ukrainian army on kilometer O0542 to achieve the goal of trapping the coking plant and the Ukrainian army in the city of Acheng.
This tactic of encircling points to send reinforcements has been repeatedly used by the Russian army in Bakhmut, and in the end, not only a large number of Ukrainian supply convoys were wiped out on the two roads of T0504 and O0506, but the Ukrainian army finally lost Bakhmut!
In May 2023, the remnants of the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut still have the opportunity to retreat in the direction of Ivanlovsky under the cover of the Ukrainian artillery fire on the Chasov Yar Heights, but Avadiivka does not have such conditions, once the ammunition and food run out, the Ukrainian army will only die or surrender, and the time window for safe retreat will no longer exist!
In the Redman direction, the Russian army advanced four kilometers in one day, approaching the Terna line on the east bank of the Stallion River.
This is the farthest distance that the Russian army has advanced in one day since it launched its counteroffensive in the second half of last year, which shows from another side that the Russian army's strategic bombardment of Ukraine has indeed weakened the Ukrainian army's ability to maintain the front!
As the Russian army continues to advance and the Ukrainian army's area of control on the east bank of the Stallion River is shrinking, they will soon face the painful choice of whether to fight or withdraw.
Compared with the lack of urgency of the Russian army in Avadiivka, it is difficult for the Russian army in the direction of Redman to wait, because after entering March, the spring flood of the Stallion River is approaching, and how to cross the Stallion River will be the primary problem facing the Russian army!
Before the end of February, the surface of the Stallion River will still be frozen, which is extremely beneficial for the Russian army to cross the Stallion River, so the Russian army must defeat the Ukrainian army on the east bank of the Stallion River in the next two months, and establish a bridgehead on the west bank of the Stallion River to prepare for the recapture of Bonus Man!
The West's military aid to Ukraine is thundering and raining, and the Ukrainian government needs to change its strategy!
The Ukrainian government must realize that the West has been trying to use the Ukrainian army to consume Russia's war potential, but no Western government will ever risk a nuclear attack to have a showdown confrontation with Russia! As long as this is there, the Ukrainian army will never have the possibility of defeating Russia on the battlefield with the support of the West!
The sooner Ukraine recognizes this, the sooner it changes its strategy of dealing with Russia, the better it will be for the Ukrainian state and people!