Original article: Wang Meng (second-hand car chubby)
转载授权：xiaopangfans
Special note: Part of the content and data of the article come from the public information released on the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete, respect intellectual property rights, respect for professional authors.
The year 2023 of the Gregorian calendar is about to pass, and for many people, this year is definitely a "magical" year, from the full confidence at the beginning of the year to the current return to the original intention, and some people may not have resisted.
It has been ten years since the resignation of a stable state-owned enterprise executive from the "iron rice bowl", which is the tenth year that my official account has insisted on doing, and the twentieth year of my career......
In the past ten years, along the way, there are no enemies in my eyes and hearts, only the division commander and friends, this sentence seems familiar? haha!
Recently, I have talked with many people about China's second-hand car industry, the "Red Sea under the sunrise" industry and field, and I will share my views and judgments with you through the year-end summary.
It's about data, price, competition, choice, insider, trends, people, evil, and more.
Welcome to the heated discussion!
About used car trading volume and behind the data!
At the beginning of this year, it is not surprising that the total number of used car transactions in China in 2023 judged by our industry should be able to hit 20 million units, after all, in March at the beginning of the year, the momentum was very strong, but after twists and turns, it is expected that there is no problem with the annual transaction volume of more than 18 million this year.
It's still a record high, but we should look at the data at a deeper level.
It is recommended that you must pay attention to the data release and seminars of the China Automobile Dealers Association every month, and pay attention to all kinds of data such as new cars, used cars, industrial chains, and managers.
With an annual transaction volume of 18 million units, the overall average transaction price is still fluctuating and declining, the circulation profit margin continues to compress, and the inventory turnover rate has dropped from a normal annual coefficient of 10 to less than 6, which is even worse than the turnover efficiency during the epidemic.
Changes in various factors such as quasi-new cars, new energy, regional differences, and relocation adjustments must be deeply excavated to make predictions.
I believe that we will analyze the specific data in January 2024 after these are issued.
In short, the era of extensive management and "luck" of "following the crowd" of second-hand cars in the past is over, and in the future, we must not only pay attention to data, but also really analyze, predict, and make decisions based on ourselves.
Just like the Gulf War, US imperialism attacked Iraq and the most terrible blow to reduce dimensionality.
About the new policy and model selection of used cars!
For 2023, the new policy of second-hand car brokerage to dealership, for some traditional second-hand car operators, there are quite criticisms, and even strong opposition, and the reasons and excuses that some people say, I think are quite terrible.
From 1985 to 2022, 37 years of time, speculation, cheating, drilling, and making money don't have to go to the right way.
If in 2023, this industry is still TM such a world, such people make money and develop, I think the hell is absolutely finished, not only this industry, so what should come must come, and what should go must go.
Although the new policy may increase part of the tax cost on the surface, from the actual operation, especially in the implementation of various places (many places have problems with the implementation and still need time to adjust), for second-hand car entrepreneurs, it is still good to do brand standardization, from the overall operating costs, corporate loans are beneficial.
Property rights are clear, commercialization is clear, responsibilities are clear, professional requirements, industry standards, only in this way can the people really rest assured, the government can really support, and everyone can really be stable.
Second-hand car practitioners who are still thinking about "exploiting loopholes", take a look at these "lessons from the past" in the entertainment industry, live broadcast Internet celebrity circle, and Internet finance circle, and follow the rules!
Those bosses who borrowed ID cards and took a large number of "private accounts", the fourth phase of the golden tax, evaded the VAT criminal law, you understand.
"You live and die" about used car practitioners
In 2015, if I remember correctly, the number of registered companies related to second-hand cars was still 180,000, and 8 years have passed, and by the end of 2023, this data has exceeded 800,000.
Of course, this is only the label of "second-hand car" for registered related companies, which shows everyone's attention and enthusiasm to continue to enter.
The competition is not fierce, but tragic and cruel.
Based on the actual number of companies engaged in the business of 400,000 (it is expected to be only a lot more), the transaction volume of 18 million units in 2023, we round it up to 20 million units, and the average annual used car transaction volume of each company is 50 units.
According to the average average transaction price of 120,000 yuan per unit, the gross profit of the transaction is 8%, and the net profit is 5% (the actual data is much lower than this data), the net profit of the actual second-hand car company is 300,000 yuan in a year.
According to the standard configuration, the smallest scale, husband, daughter-in-law and brother-in-law, three people, 100,000 yuan each. This is not counting all kinds of eating, drinking, hospitality, gifts, and favors, it's over, it's gone!
Start working 10 hours a day, quote to see the car and run errands, go to court with laughter and scolding, and be able to say the live broadcast of the car, sometimes I jokingly say that to make a second-hand car now, you have to have the patience of an online car-hailing driver, the diligence of the courier brother, and the confidence of Li Jiaqi's live broadcast, and finally at the end of the year, 90% of people dare not settle accounts!
Because, this year, there are few people who make money.
It's too involuted, but which industry is not?
This industry, don't learn China's new cars, new energy, new forces, capital that set of Internet methodology, nonsense, not to kill others, you can live, what this industry needs is collaboration, the world's largest Carmax used car is more than 1 million units a year, a little more than 1% of the market share.
A large number of fragmentation, subdivisions, and professional services need industry integration and cooperation, you have me, I have you, support each other, and our "incomplete" second-hand cars can go further and more steadily.
Regarding new energy, the price reduction of new cars mixes used cars!
People in the second-hand car industry basically know more about cars than ordinary people, right?
You yourself say, our so-called new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, overtaking in corners, is it possible? The new Internet forces have started to build cars in 2023, and there are few left.
Wei Xiaoli has its own "future" plan, the "new brand" of traditional car companies, BYD, Geely, Chery, etc., as well as the possibility of "ecological" cooperation with Huawei and Xiaomi.
How many of us have bought electric cars around us to say that they are fragrant, and they pretend to be forced to "can't smell the smell of gasoline", and then there are many people who buy cotton jackets and queue up to charge on the street in the northern winter, and they are blocked at high speeds?
New energy is the trend, but it is not a pure electric road, whether the range extension is reasonable or not, it does not matter for the time being, but intelligence and integration, the advantages and scale of the industrial chain, must be the only way for our China's industrial development, through the upgrading of the automobile industry is also inevitable.
Iron and steel production, ship production, household appliances production...... Automobile production and sales, our volume and Internet "Internet celebrity influence" have been established, and the next step is to improve the quality and cost performance.
New energy vehicles will not replace 300 million cars overnight, intelligent, intelligent manufacturing is the way out of China's automobiles, so at this stage, just from the Spring and Autumn Period to the Warring States, from the princes to the Three Kingdoms.
New EV manufacturers, domestic brands, and joint venture brands promote the development of new energy and intelligence, and ultimately provide better products for global consumption.
The new forces of car manufacturing are cool and unsafe; the domestic brand is strong, the pride is inflated, and there are many problems; the joint venture is downgraded, and the adjustment is forbearance, and it can't die; Tesla is unique, I play mine, it's very difficult!
In this process, new cars will continue to adjust price reductions, product iterations, and the general trend in 2024 is still the possibility of "price reduction and survival", and the trend of continuous elimination and integration.
So the impact of new car price reductions on used cars is still the same, even greater, more chaotic, and more ugly, what should I do?
What should I do if I can't make the difference? Do my best, improve efficiency, and develop obscenely!
About the car 4S shop, the second-hand car live!
I thought that after the new policy for the second-hand car industry came out in 2023, it would definitely be a "qualitative change" opportunity for the auto dealer group to "borrow the east wind" to make second-hand cars, taking this opportunity to integrate the old and the new, and the "qualitative change" opportunity of the circular development of the automobile life cycle.
But, in reality, it is not as developed as imagined.
Many car 4S shops, the problem encountered is unprecedentedly difficult, the brand is cowardly, the new car can not be sold, the after-sales back is less, the derivative profit is thin, the talent is gone, the marketing is expensive, the cost is high, and then encounter a tax inspection, demolition, employee resignation report, this year more than 4,000 4S stores closed down and transferred, more than 10%.
Many groups and many bosses have talked to me about wanting to "make second-hand cars well", and they all know that there is only the possibility of "turning the tide" with second-hand cars.
A group, a 4S store, the second-hand car is not good, the new car will not be good for a long time, the second-hand car is good, the new car will not be bad (of course, except for the group and store that swipes the data, I am talking about the serious thing).
However, when it comes to making second-hand cars in automobile 4S stores, it is a problem and dilemma from the real attention, resources, matching, talents, systems, and collaboration.
The traditional car 4S shop model really has the right time and place to make second-hand cars, but it has been "domesticated" by the manufacturer for too long Resource thinking and system dependence, coupled with the good days before, who will really work hard to do the "internal strength" business of second-hand cars, especially the professional manager 4S store manager, why I planted trees for three years, others bear fruit, this is the reality.
If you want to do a good job of second-hand cars for 4S stores and dealer groups, that is, the martingale method, then you have to do the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which is also a good group and brand store in China.
It's just that the vast majority of people are still confused and confused business, and finally they are confused, when the manufacturer's subsidy is gone, maybe they will be weaned and grow up! Of course, there is a high probability of starvation!
About Internet "hooligans" and used car e-commerce!
If you want to say that the current second-hand car dealers don't do live broadcasts and don't go to the Internet to "involute", then he definitely thinks that you are not mainstream, and this will be even more true in 2023.
But we have experienced the era of so many Internet "traffic hooligans", and experienced the passionate era of Yougua people smashing 30 billion+, what is the result?
Second-hand car "Internet celebrity traffic" is only the surface, internal products and services are the foundation, grasp with both hands, both hands must be hard, but now many bosses are just "donkey dung egg surface light", watching the live broadcast every day, it is very good, internal management and hidden dangers, eh! Traffic is a double-edged sword, don't just look at the surface!
Sooner or later, it's already happening!
No one is idle in these vertical fields of second-hand car e-commerce, charging you advertising fees, and at the same time trying to find ways to change and sell cars, not only new cars, but also second-hand cars.
It's normal, people give you so much traffic, although your advertising costs are rising every year, but they can't cover the cost, or the KPI is involuted, so the story has to be told.
CPL has become CPS, but I still don't give up, because the advertising revenue of second-hand car dealers has peaked, car dealers have begun to do their own self-media, car dealers have become anchors, and people "want to be revolutionary and independent"!
58+ Renren car, how is it now?Easy car + Taoche, offline chain!Understand car emperor + offline understand second-hand cars, do you really understand?Autohome + space station, traffic + allocation to you proofing is it possible?
Many second-hand car e-commerce companies have finally lived to be the objects they once served or "what you hate".
Uxin's large-scale and super-large-scale independent stores, the "Federation of Second-hand Car Dealers" purchased by Guazi second-hand cars nationwide, and the original Xiaoqiang who can't be killed, have no ideas for each other.
Nowadays, the second-hand car e-commerce of tools still exists, after all, everyone else digs gold, and the shovel seller finally survives.
The auction system, C2B auctions the left-handed easy-to-car system every day, the right-hand family system, the integration of both ends, and the steady life, the B2B car street announcement has not yet been listed, the old brand of Uxin Auction is maintained, Xiaoning Auction, Alliance Auction, Lixin Auction, Youjia Auction and other collectivizations, and the auctions of Xiao Kuailing are also in the "respective advantageous fields" and "obscene development".
The price of valuation software, people don't make money from second-hand car dealers, it's too hard, just do bank finance, it's not bad, and it doesn't require so fine.
Third-party testing, Dr. Cha with the support of Ningde, basically began to upgrade the country, second-hand car trademark with quality after-sales, reduce the cost and risk of doing it himself, which is a relatively successful "temporary shore half a foot".
Anyway, in 2023, the people who rush in from the Internet will no longer be the publicity of "subverting second-hand cars", and the traditional second-hand cars' views on these people will no longer be "two knives", mutual respect, mutual support, and huddle together to keep warm in winter is the best policy.
About used car exports and temptations!
In the past year, people who ask used car exports, can be more, domestic car-related and unrelated, all want to "make a fortune", China's overseas "laymen" what official, non-governmental, enterprise, all kinds of relationships, I obviously feel that the Chinese's diligence and courage run all over the world.
Nowadays, my mobile phone address book and WeChat partition can be classified according to Asia, Africa, Latin America and countries, but it's very beautiful to do second-hand car exports, it's very tiring to do, and the data is very tempting, but in fact, they are all ruthless!
Regardless of who told you how much the second-hand car exports have increased and increased this year, if you remove the "zero-kilometer second-hand cars", you can see how many real second-hand car exports are? Most of the "parallel export" new cars are exploiting the loopholes of manufacturers and international demanders.
Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, car manufacturers are not stupid, the dealer system is not stupid, parallel exports go, what about accessories, after-sales, quality?
Buy cattle across the mountain, let's tell the truth, in the early days of doing these, 20% of the profit is available, now 4% is not much, and, more than 10 documents for export, you first familiarize yourself with it, translation software to a set, 26 letters of the general combination of import and export trade language to understand?
Second-hand cars, the real export, is the future, is the direction, is the trend, to divide the division, to classify, to divide people, not to pat the head of the domestic "speculative business", exchange rate fluctuations and foreign exchange management have to kill your brain cells!
Do you think these old hairy people, stupid and simple, "people are stupid and have a lot of money", in fact, many countries are "India makes money and India spends, and they want to take it home", you have the ability to earn, you have to have the ability to bring back the life flower, be cautious.
By the way, in 2024, the export qualification of second-hand cars may be fully liberalized, and at that time, the early state-owned monopoly "qualification stamp company" may not have any advantages, and the overseas market has gradually been liberalized, China's cars are also cheaper, and the "zero kilometer" of new cars is cautious, and real second-hand cars may be able to try!
Resist loneliness, resist temptation, know how to give up, learn to choose, and do what is suitable for you, instead of ponies crossing the river and listening to others!
About capital entry and corporate integration!
In 2023, U.S. capital investment in China will decrease by 90%, and Chinese capital investment in the U.S. will also decrease by 80%+.
Automobile is second only to real estate economy industrial body, very important, GDP accounts for a very heavy, contribution is great, second-hand car is an important part of the automobile industry, inseparable, connecting the previous and the next.
After the start of the epidemic, both domestic and foreign capital almost retreated and shrank in the field of second-hand cars.
However, in 2023, a lot of capital for the development of the real economy in China will enter, such as Haier, Ningde, and ...... You guess.
Capital is always the keenest "hunter", but capital is also the most ruthless and unrighteous "one", for the Xi rivers and lakes and extensive second-hand cars, whether it can be just right in the new round of "capital, Internet integration", it is indeed not easy.
In general, many traditional second-hand car people, with capital and brand, are actually just the beginning, and even "bayonet in the back" is more difficult, breaking the kettle, forcing themselves, winning is reborn, losing may be all zero.
What you want, and what the other party gives, figure it out, do your best!
In fact, for the integration of capital, I am more optimistic about the integration of auto dealer groups, these groups and the traditional auto market, second-hand car dealers "local integration", these are far better than the new energy manufacturers "prostitution of second-hand car dealers quotation" way.
The 4S shop group has resources and strength, but the system and mechanism are problematic, second-hand car dealers have experience and take risks, but the resources and capabilities are insufficient.
Whether it is capital or integration, strong + strong ≠ one is more determined to be stronger, but strong + weak = strong becomes weaker + weak and weaker, so it is still the same sentence, striking iron itself is hard, and development is the last word.
Don't worry about traditional markets and car dealers!
For the traditional automobile market and the second-hand car market, in fact, whether it is a new policy or a new era, the era of relying on rent + policy transfer fees is definitely getting more and more difficult.
The transformation of the property type into the service type, the flat type into the three-dimensional, the combination of offline and online, and the upgrade of the automobile market to the automobile life scene may be the only way.
However, with this path, many urban investment projects and real estate shopping malls are also "gearing up".
The traditional market survives by the difference in land rent, and the traditional second-hand car dealers survive by the difference in vehicle price.
A lot of young, advanced, brand used car dealers have gone out to "become independent", so what about these "old guys" and "old markets" left behind?
In fact, there are many industries, there are realistic models, think and think!
Just look at the changes in shopping malls in Beijing.
Scitech, Lufthansa, Ole, IKEA, Hopson, Wanda, SKP, Sanlitun, from merchants to users, positioning and differentiation.
You don't want to change, no one else can help you, you are surrounded by drama spirits who sing praises, and this company is almost over!
Old friends of traditional second-hand car dealers, especially the brothers and sisters who have "early primitive accumulation", to be honest, you and your children, maybe when you can't see the road ahead and are difficult to judge, don't be blind, don't take risks and speculate, even if you do new projects and development, you must find the right person, do things slowly, have your own rhythm, don't worry, don't lose money, find reliable people, it may be more important.
We can learn from those successful time-honored brands, century-old stores, word-of-mouth, products, and services, and the Internet era does not mean the existence of subverting everything.
It's about risk, humanity and cognition!
This year's second-hand cars, new cars have lost a lot of price reductions, many poor management, many contradictions in brain drain, many cheats have been cheated, and many have refunded one and lost three......
The economic situation is not good, all kinds of problems in people's hearts and human nature have come out, the tide has receded, the poor are treacherous, the rich have a long conscience, the warehouse is honest and knows the etiquette, the food and clothing are sufficient and the honor and disgrace are known, the original some professional insufficiency, resources are not good, relying on clever speculation to drill camp to demolish the east to make up for the west "rich" people, from simple to luxury, from luxury to thrift.
Therefore, it is difficult to change, in order to maintain its original "decency", it is often even worse to be deceived and abducted, it doesn't matter, tear down the east wall and make up the west wall, fuck it, what are the rules of the rivers and lakes, the truth of life, you can't fight the social death or run away, these people, eh, there are more and more, and there may be more in the next few years.
Our second-hand car people, buddies are righteous, and they promise after drinking, over the years, are there fewer people who have suffered losses and eaten coptis chinensis?
Face and lining, now the inside is more important! The risk is the most fatal!
Remember, there must be a demon when things go wrong, don't test human nature, it's like this for everyone, in this world, except for your mother, who really hurts you, maybe your father may not be, heart-piercing but realistic, cruel but true!
In the past, the second-hand car industry made money by luck, and in the future, it may be lost due to lack of awareness, all bosses, sometimes busy quotations, live broadcast tactics are diligent, it is better to take the time to calm down and learn something new, improve cognition, and get twice the result with half the effort in the strategy, even if it is half an hour a day!
A pot of wine in Hongchen, a cup of tea for a thousand years, of course, you invite the fat brother to drink tea and talk about Hongchen, I have no opinion!
In 2023, it has passed, I will send you this sentence and talk about it together!
We always run for too many things that are out of reach, but we forget that the true happiness of life is nothing more than the warmth of the lights and the abundance of firewood, rice, oil and salt.
During the year, whether you make more or less money, whether you experience good or bad things, remember that if you are healthy this year, it will be the best year.