The Palestinian-Israeli situation has been rarely written about lately because the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lost its suspense very early, and it would be more meaningful to pay more attention to the Argentine social experiment. Argentina, for example, has just announced that it can replace its currency with milk, beef, and bitcoin. Because Milley's currency reform caused the Argentine peso to collapse, the Argentine foreign minister announced the opening of barter. This kind of news has a lot of negative educational significance.
Today, I can write about the Middle East, because there are two very valuable news from the Middle East:
First, the Israeli military announced the withdrawal of the first batch of five brigades from the Gaza theater of operations.
Second, the US Navy said on the 1st that the US aircraft carrier "Gerald Ford" sent to the eastern Mediterranean would return to the United States "in a few days."
The reason given by Israel for the withdrawal of some of its forces is that the Israeli army has almost complete control over northern Gaza and that the need for troops in the area has been reduced. The explanation that the U.S. military found for the carrier's departure from the Middle East was that the USS Gerald Ford played a role in "positioning our deterrence and defense areas" and that it would "redeploy to its home port as planned in preparation for future deployments."
Except for the American and Israeli fans, most Chinese people are happy, because when they saw these two pieces of news, everyone's first reaction was that Israel was going to be unable to fight in Gaza, and the US military's military deterrence in the Middle East had failed.
As for the reasons given by the Israeli and US armies, it is impossible to hide the severity of the setbacks that Israel and the United States have encountered in the Middle East this time.
I am afraid that the real hard days of Israel and the United States in the Middle East are about to begin.
Let's start with Israel.
Hamas's stubborn resistance in Gaza has cost Israel dearly. This cost is not only unbearable for Israel, but also the economic costs, including the direct and indirect economic losses caused by the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea.
If Israel does not have the ability to take Gaza in a blitzkrieg, attacking Gaza on the ground could easily fall into a war of attrition and a protracted war, forming a situation of inevitable defeat.
This time, we're watching how Israel is moving towards passivity step by step:
In the beginning, Israel's attitude from the government to the military was very arrogant.
By 30 November, Israel had agreed to an armistice and exchanged hostages with Hamas, indicating that Israel's initiative was running out.
In late December, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he was willing to cease fire with Hamas again, the main condition being the release of 40 hostages, which Hamas refused. This is a sign that the initiative in Gaza has changed hands.
Now that Israel has taken the initiative to withdraw five more brigades, it shows that Israel is beginning to prepare for accepting defeat.
The performance of the Middle East bully this time is much more than that of Ukraine, and the "Middle East bully" character set up in the first five Middle East wars has been smashed this time.
After all, Israel has too deep grudges with Islamic countries in the Middle East, especially this time, it has done too much evil against the civilians of Gaza, and it has not left itself a way back from the very beginning of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Let's talk about the United States.
The embarrassment of the United States in the Middle East this time is no less than that of Israel.
After the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States began to fall into passivity even earlier than Israel.
First, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict triggered by this has caused a major interference in the foreign strategy of the United States. The United States, which originally focused on dealing with China and Russia, now has to give priority to dealing with changes in the Middle East.
The second is that the United States is still being dragged into the pit of the Middle East by Israel, and Israel's goals in Gaza are inherently in conflict with the global strategic priorities of the United States. Even if Israel achieves its goal of occupying Gaza, it will do so at the cost of greater losses in the global strategic interests of the United States.
This is the main basis for judging that the outcome is basically doomed at the beginning of the changes in the Middle East. (For specific analysis, see "What kind of magical script is this: before the official start, the ending is basically doomed")
The best outcome of this change in the Middle East is that Israel wins local interests, while the United States loses global interests, and even US hegemony and dollar status will end in the Middle East ahead of schedule.
However, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the chain reaction it triggered have developed to the point where Israel cannot win even local interests, and the price for the United States is even greater.
The US hegemony is in big trouble in the Middle East this time.
The United States successively sent two aircraft carriers, the USS Ford and the USS Eisenhower, to the Middle East to cooperate with Israel's actions. According to the initial projection of the United States, its two aircraft carriers will arrive in the Middle East, which will be enough to deter those Islamic countries and resistance forces.
But the real embarrassment of the United States began with the arrival of the second aircraft carrier in the Middle East, which was exported again and again by Iran and the Houthis, which was not only extremely insulting, but also particularly harmful.
The Houthis, in particular, have plunged the United States into a Red Sea crisis. With a small effort, the Houthis have almost deconstructed the US maritime hegemony, exposed the plight of the US inability to maintain the Red Sea shipping lanes, and seriously weakened the US security dominance in the Middle East.
Israel was so arrogant in the early stage, and its greatest reliance was nothing more than the support of the United States. But this time Israel not only underestimated its opponents and overestimated itself, but also grossly overestimated the United States.
The result of such a mistake in judgment may be fatal, not only for Israel, which has lost its deterrent power of force, to face the encirclement of Islamic countries in the Middle East in the future, which is not good, but also has a fatal impact on US hegemony and the status of the dollar.
Later, Israel's passivity in Gaza and the passivity of the United States in the Middle East were basically synchronized.
Israel seems to have no better way than to find a reason and a step to sit down at the negotiating table, but this way of stopping the loss, whether for Israel or the United States, is already too late.
Even if Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, the United States will not be able to restore its influence in the Middle East to the state it was before the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the real troubles of the United States in the Middle East have only just begun, and will not end with the return of calm to Gaza.
At the end of 2023, the USS Eisenhower dispatched helicopter gunships to sink three Houthi speedboats, killing 10 Houthi members and igniting the fuse for the escalation of the conflict.
It is quite possible that we will see how the US military is in an even bigger mess in the Middle East.
Now the initiative is not in the hands of the United States at all.
The Houthis have actually declared war on the United States: "From today onwards, there will be an unusually unprecedented war with the enemies of Zionist America." The bases and interests of the United States will be at the disposal of our armed forces. "A map of US bases in the Middle East was also published.
Although the British newspaper The Times also reported in a nutshell, the British military is planning to launch missile strikes against the Houthis at sea or in Yemen, in conjunction with the United States. Thinking about Britain's current naval strength, and considering the embarrassment encountered by the US military in the Red Sea joint escort operation launched earlier, I am afraid that not many people really take it seriously.
The US side issued a statement explaining to the Houthis in Yemen that the United States does not want to escalate the contradictions in the Red Sea, and the United States does not want to fight the Houthis in Yemen, and will withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Ford, indicating that the United States is unlikely to make greater moves in the Middle East.
But the Houthis are very strong in execution, and they basically do what they say.
The US fleet and military bases in the Middle East will be tightened in the future, because they may become direct targets of the Houthis.
Originally, with the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US military bases in the Middle East were constantly attacked by Middle East resistance groups. The Houthis, however, claim to have a million-strong army and are well-equipped, and it is worth looking forward to training with the US fleet or military bases in the Middle East.
The United States is still very worried that the Houthis will fight to the death with the US military bases in the Middle East, and lead other Middle East resistance groups to take the opportunity to force the US military bases to withdraw from the Middle East as the next stage of military and political goals.
According to the distribution map of US military bases in the Middle East released by Musk, there are 26 large and small US military bases in the Middle East. ACCORDING TO A COUNT CONDUCTED BY THE NEWS WEBSITE AXIOS ON OCTOBER 31, THE NUMBER OF U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED IN COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST SHOULD NOW BE MORE THAN 40,000.
These deployments are the basis of the petrodollar.
If the Houthis' declaration of war against the United States can be translated into action, it means that the drama of change in the Middle East has really begun.
Although the Houthis cannot be expected to drive the US military out of the Middle East, it is still possible to keep the US nervous in the Middle East in place. Moreover, the power of example is endless, and under the inspiration of the Houthis, there are more resistance groups in the Middle East, and they are working together to target the US military in the Middle East. If they play a joint force, they may not be less troublesome than the Taliban in Afghanistan causing the US military.
Anyway, there is no rush for a while, and there is no need to even win, but only need to dare to fight, slowly consume the US military, and at the same time solidify the paper tiger essence of the US military, which may trigger a greater chain reaction, reach a critical point, and let the Middle East also have a "Saigon moment".
As long as we can break the American-phobia in all countries, including the countries of the Middle East, there are always more ways than difficulties. It is even more worth looking forward to burying US hegemony and petrodollars in the Middle East in advance.
(The author is a researcher at the Kunlun Ce Research Institute; source: Kunlun Ce Network [author's authorization], reproduced from "Mingren Mingcha")