Zhitong Financial APP learned that the market's optimism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has waned and the large-cap stock Apple (AAPL. O) dragged down, and the three major stock indexes were mixed. Tuesday was the first trading day of 2024 for U.S. stocks, with the U.S. dollar jumping against major currencies as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly rebounded above 4%, signaling lower expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024.
As of the close, the Dow closed up 25.50 points, or 0.07%, at 37,715.04; The Nasdaq fell 245.41 points, or 1.63%, to 14,765.94; The S&P 500 fell 27.00 points, or 0.57%, to 4,742.83. Apple (AAPL. US) fell 3.6%, chip stocks fell across the board, and Arm (ARM. US) closed down 8.2%, while ASML (ASML. US) fell 5.2%, while Nvidia (NVDA. US) fell 2.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3.5%, while Li Auto (LI.US), NIO (NIO. US) fell more than 7%, and JD.com (JD. US) fell nearly 6%.
Major European stock indexes closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX up 0.11%, Britain's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, France's CAC 40 down 0.16%, and Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.2%.
South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.55%, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.7%, and Vietnam's VN30 Index rose 0.02%.
The DXY, a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.88% to 102.23. The greenback posted its biggest one-day gain since March last year on the first trading day of 2024 as traders pared back bets on how big the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. Despite a strong start to 2024, the dollar has had a bumpy start to the year, largely influenced by investors' expectations about when and how much major central banks will cut interest rates. While much of the dollar's decline in 2023 has largely come from Wall Street's ramped bets on policy easing, traders are now reconsidering the future path of monetary policy. Central banks have said they may have implemented the last rate hike of the cycle, but they are also reluctant to stop fighting inflation too soon.
Bitcoin rose more than 1.6% to $44,960, while Ethereum rose 0.29% to $2,359.53.
COMEX gold futures for February delivery closed up 0.08% at $2,073.4 an ounce.
International crude oil futures prices closed lower on Tuesday. Traders are closely monitoring the tensioning situation in the Red Sea. Record U.S. crude oil production and concerns about weak global demand also weighed on oil prices. WTI futures closed down $1.27, or 1.78%, at $70.38 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell $1.15, or 1.5%, to settle at $75.89 a barrel.
【Metal】London metal closed down, London copper fell 0.33%, London nickel fell 0.23%, London zinc fell 1.5%, and London aluminum fell more than 2.4%.
【Macro News】
U.S. construction spending in November grew less than expected, and the previous value was revised sharply upward. U.S. construction spending rose less than expected in November due to lower spending on public projects, but the previous month's data was revised sharply upward, showing the potential strength of the sector. Construction spending rose 0.4% in November. October's data was revised upwards to a 1.2% increase instead of the previous 0.6%. Although lower than expected, the report, along with a slew of recent data on the job market, consumer spending and confidence, suggests that the economy has regained momentum after seemingly faltering at the start of the fourth quarter. Spending on new single-family construction projects jumped 2.9 percent. The severe shortage of second-hand homes in the market is driving the construction of new homes. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling further below 7%, single-family home construction could surge in 2024. Spending on multi-family residential projects edged up 0.1%.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management: The Fed may cut interest rates more than the current market expects. Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of international fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg that the market's current expectations for a 150 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year are "actually not very much" based on past rate cut cycles. Stealey said the Fed has made it clear that it wants to ease policy, believing that the current policy is in restrictive territory and that inflation is moving lower. "I wouldn't be surprised if the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.5% in the first half of the year and fell even lower in the second half," Stealey said. "It's going to depend on the data, on inflation continuing to evolve as the central bank expects, and maybe even lower if the job market shows weakness. ”
Wall Street's most bullish strategist: U.S. stock rallies may pause and wait for new catalysts such as earnings reports. Oppenheimer Asset Management believes that U.S. stocks may take a break after a rapid rally until a new catalyst emerges, such as the next earnings season. After the S&P 500 rose 11% in Q4 last year, investors eager to see further gains may not have to wait too long as US companies start reporting results next Friday. "It's not uncommon for the market to pause and digest after a rally of this magnitude," said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist. In fact, given the rise in U.S. stocks from the lows in October to December, "we think a break seems reasonable." For 2024, Stoltzfus still expects the S&P 500 to reach 5,200 points, making him one of the most bullish strategists.
【Stock News】
BYD surpassed Tesla (TSLA. US) became the world's largest manufacturer of pure electric vehicles. Tesla announced 484507 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 483173 market estimates. According to previous data, BYD's pure electric model sales in the fourth quarter totaled 526409 (190754 pure electric models were sold in December, 170,150 pure electric models were sold in November, and 165505 pure electric models were sold in October), which means that BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest pure electric vehicle manufacturer.
Goldman Sachs will replace Boeing (BA. US) from its "Confidence List". Goldman Sachs removed Boeing from its "confidence list." The U.S. Equity "Confidence List" aims to find investment opportunities by looking at individual stocks that are likely to offer the best strong risk-adjusted returns. If the committee believes that a stock is no longer the best investment idea, it will be delisted. However, Goldman Sachs said that inclusion on the list does not represent a rating of stocks, and inclusion on the list or removal from the list does not necessarily represent a change in an analyst's investment rating.
AstraZeneca (AZN. US) and Sanofi (SNY. US) approved today in China for the prevention of RSV infection in infants. AstraZeneca (AZN. US) and Sanofi (SNY. US) announced that its co-developed and commercialized long-acting monoclonal antibody Nirsevimab (Nirsevimab) has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration of China. This drug is used to prevent lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in neonates and infants. RSV is a common, highly contagious seasonal virus that is the most common cause of lower respiratory tract infections (e.g., bronchiolitis and pneumonia) and one of the leading causes of hospitalization. The data show that RSV is one of the top three pathogens of viral respiratory infections in children, and may be co-epidemic with multiple respiratory viruses. Nisevimab is expected to be available in China during the 2024-2025 RSV season.
【Big Bank Rating】
Barclays: Bringing Apple (AAPL. US) with a $160 price target
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