Less than half a year after announcing the repurchase, the founder Zhang Hui hurriedly cashed out 500 million, why is the "double-sided" full gang lacking confidence?

The following article comes from Dolphin Finance, the dolphin on the tip of the author's pen

Recently, two announcements of the reduction of senior executives have attracted market attention. On November 29, Wang Zhenghong, chief customer officer of Full Truck Group, reduced his holdings and sold 700,000 ADSs for a total value of $5.208 million, and on November 30, co-founder Ma Guizhen reduced his holdings and sold 1 million ADSs for a total value of $7.52 million.

Earlier, on August 30, Zhang Hui, the founder of Full Truck Group, reduced his holdings of 10 million ADSs with a total value of $71.2 million, and Shen Kai, the chief risk officer, reduced his holdings of 600,000 ADSs with a total value of $4.272 million.

So far, since the beginning of this year, the four executives of the Full Gang have "cashed out" a total of 88.2 million US dollars, reaching 6% of the repurchase amount - as of November 17, the Full Gang has repurchased a total of about 22.8 million ADSs, worth about 147 million US dollars.

It is worth noting that

The reduction price of Zhang Hui and others is around $7 per share, while the issue price of Full Bang in 2021 is about $19, that is, as the founder

Zhang Hui chose to sell and cash out at a position where the stock price was less than 4% off the issue price, does this mean that he is very pessimistic about the future stock price of the Full Bang?

Of course, the public voice of the Full Gang has always been very optimistic.

In March this year, the Full Truck announced a $500 million open-market buyback program.

In the third quarter, Full Bang also said that it would continue to give back to shareholders through repurchases in the future.

Full Bang claimed that the buyback showed that the company's top management was interested in the future of Full Bang

Be confident

and believe that the current stock value may be undervalued.

Ironically, executives are eager to shout at investors that the company's share price is undervalued

Reducing holdings and cashing out when the stock price is low, which one is the "double-sided" full gang singing?

There are significant uncertainties in the main business

As of December 20, the latest stock price of Full Truck was $6.68 per share, which has wiped out the gains before and after the release of the earnings report. The reason for the weakness of the stock price is mainly due to the risk of unsustainable policies in the main business of Full Bang, which is constantly controversial at the user and regulatory levels, and is extremely uncertain in the long run.

The full truck business is divided into two parts: freight matching and value-added services, the former includes freight brokerage business (tax reconciliation), freight listing service (collecting membership fees from the shipper), transaction commission income (collecting commissions from the driver's side), and the latter is mainly credit solutions and other value-added services.

Among them, freight intermediary service has always been the pillar of revenue for Full Bang. The specific business model is that the Full Truck enters into a cargo transportation agreement with the cargo owner - charging freight fees and platform service fees - and pays the agreed freight fee to individual drivers or car carriers.

According to the financial report data, from 2019 to 2022, the proportion of freight intermediary services in total revenue will exceed or close to 50%. Although it declined in the first three quarters of 2023, it still exceeded 46%. According to the latest data, at present, there are 2.13 million monthly active shippers and 3.79 million active drivers for fulfillment, both of which have reached a record high. The Full Gang at both ends is supposed to be able to create huge business value, but its road to profitability is extremely difficult.

The reason lies in VAT. The freight and service charges received by Full Truck from the cargo owner are subject to 9% VAT according to "transportation services". If the carrier is a fleet, this part of the cost can be transferred. If the carrier is an individual driver, the full gang can issue a 3% VAT invoice and deduct it, but there is still a 6% tax difference, and the meager membership fee is difficult to cover this part, so the full gang is actually a loss per order, but due to the tax refund policy, it can ensure profits.

How much is the VAT refund income?

From 2019 to 2022, the total tax refunds received by the full truck freight brokers were 861 million yuan, 939 million yuan, 1.560 billion yuan and 1.980 billion yuan respectively, while the losses before tax refunds of freight brokers in the same period were 444 million yuan, 398 million yuan, 882 million yuan and 963 million yuan respectively, and the income after tax refunds was 406 million yuan, 540 million yuan, 678 million yuan and 1.017 billion yuan. From 2019 to 2022, the overall net profit of Full Gang will be -1.524 billion yuan, -3.47 billion yuan, -3.655 billion yuan, and 412 million yuan respectively. However, the 2023 Full Gang financial report will no longer disclose relevant tax refund data.

From the above three sets of data, it can be seen that "tax refund" is the key to the profitability of the full gang. In its 2022 annual report, Full Truck said that in the past three years, the VAT required to pay for freight intermediary services exceeded the revenue brought by the business, but it was able to make a profit thanks to government tax refunds. If local government tax rebates are terminated, performance will be severely affected.

However, the tax rebate depends on the local government, there is a risk of unsustainability, and it is not a long-term solution for any commercial company to achieve profitability.

In order to get rid of the dependence on the local government's tax refund policy, the Full Bang has also tried to develop other value-added businesses, one of which is the lending business.

In recent years, Full Truck has made great efforts in the credit business, and has carried out five rounds of capital increase for its Guizhou Truck Gang Small Loan, hoping to build a new ecological portfolio through financial business.

Since 2019, the credit business of Full Gang has developed rapidly, and its revenue has accounted for more than 7% of the value-added service revenue. From the first to the third quarter of this year, the value-added service revenue of the Full Gang was 214 million yuan, 330 million yuan and 359.5 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, 27% and 22.1% respectively. In 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of value-added services will reach 51.7%. Among them, the largest contributor is the credit business.

However, there are also great risks and hidden dangers in the credit business, and one of the problems is compliance risk. Dolphin Finance noticed that the truck gang small loan was riddled with lawsuits due to violent collection and high interest rates.

Tianyan check shows that at present, there are 427 judicial cases involving small loans in trucks, of which 362 are loan contract disputes and 14 are small loan contract disputes, accounting for 90% of the total, and the annual interest rate of full loans is about 20%-36%, which is close to the maximum annual interest rate of small loans stipulated by law. A number of legal judgment documents show that part of the interest calculation method of the "driver's loan" of the Full Gang is too high, which does not comply with the provisions of the law, and the court will not support it.

On December 4, the Guizhou branch of the central bank also announced an administrative penalty information, and the truck helped the small loan to be fined 370,000 yuan for "providing bad personal information without informing the information subject in advance".

A more symbolic event is that Chongqing Ant Small and Micro Loan Co., Ltd. recently changed its name to "Chongqing Ant Small and Micro Information Technology Co., Ltd." and is no longer engaged in loan business. This also shows that local regulators are stepping up efforts to clear the risks of the small loan industry, and the business development of trucks will be more difficult in the future in the three aspects of judicial, regulatory and market games.

The conflict of interest of platform drivers is difficult to resolve

In addition to the credit business, another main growth force of the Full Gang - commission income - is also facing greater policy and regulatory pressure.

Judging from the data, the commission income of the Full Gang in 2022 has increased by 32 times compared with 2020, and before Q3 last year, the commission income of the Full Gang has maintained a growth rate of more than 100%, which has become the main driving force for the increase in the revenue performance of the Full Bang.

However, behind the continuous doubling of income is the continuous rise in the commission level of the Full Truck platform, which undoubtedly exacerbates the conflict of interest between the Full Truck and the drivers, and at the same time, the "platform suggested price" provided by the Full Truck for cargo owners is far lower than the market freight rate, which further squeezes the income space of truck drivers, which has caused a large number of complaints. It can be said that the higher the commission income of the Full Gang, the less the income of the driver group, and in this zero-sum game, the Full Gang plays the role of "squeezing" the driver.

A search of keywords in Sina Black Cat complaints found that there were more than 4,000 complaints involving the full gang and the truck gang, most of which involved lowering the driver's freight and infringing on the driver's legitimate interests.

These phenomena have also attracted the attention of regulators.

In January last year, the regulatory authorities interviewed four Internet freight platform companies including the Full Bang. The interview pointed out that the recent problems reported by truck drivers such as the Internet road freight platform arbitrarily adjusting the pricing rules, increasing membership fees, inducing vicious low-price competition, and illegal transportation of overloading and overloading are suspected of infringing on the legitimate rights and interests of employees.

In November, the regulatory authorities conducted "reminder interviews" with four platforms including the Full Gang due to multiple charges, price competition, and non-standard operations that damaged the legitimate rights and interests of truck drivers.

Under the continuous interviews, the full gang has made much less efforts to "gather wool" for truck drivers, and the growth rate of commission income has also declined rapidly. The data shows that from Q4 2022 to Q3 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of commission income of Full Gang will be 67.40%, 55.31%, 59.6%, and 54.3% respectively.

In particular, in April this year, the Ministry of Transport required that by the end of July, ensure that the basic completion of the new transportation business platform enterprises to reduce the upper limit of excessive commissions or membership fees. In the last month of the limited time, Full Gang announced that the upper limit of technical service fees for general goods and preferred business will be reduced by 10%.

Although the senior management of Full Truck said that the adjustment of the maximum commission fee did not have a negative impact on the platform, the year-on-year growth rate of commission income in the third quarter was the lowest in history, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate also dropped sharply from 38% in the previous quarter to 8.5%. Full Gang value-added services also recorded the lowest growth rate since Q4 2021 in the third quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of only 8.3%. This suggests that the expansion rate of the two businesses, which are closely related to the driver group, has converged under regulatory pressure.

Improving performance cannot be at the expense of harming the interests of the driver group, which is the social responsibility that cannot be avoided by the Full Gang. The conflict of interests between the full gang and the driver can be alleviated, but it is difficult to completely eliminate it. As long as the Manbang business continues to operate, this multi-party game involving truck drivers, cargo owners, regulators and local governments is unlikely to disappear. Because of this, the future direction of the Manbang is extremely delicate.

In June this year, the Sichuan Provincial Department of Transportation issued a special action rectification plan - "Sichuan Province Truck Driver Rights Protection Outstanding Problems Special Rectification Action Plan". The plan pointed out that in response to the problem of building an official freight platform reflected by truck drivers, relevant work has been started, and it is planned to build an official freight platform in the province. At present, Sichuan Province is the only province that has revealed that it will set up a freight platform, and it is not yet known whether other provinces will follow suit, but this is enough to make the future of the Full Gang more uncertain.

Use buybacks to cover executives' reductions

Complex means that it is difficult to see, and in the capital market, it is best not to enter the market when it is not clear. Perhaps this is the reason why the stock has been listed for three years and has fallen for three years, and it has always been weak.

In the face of the uncertainty of the existing business, Full Truck is also actively seeking new growth points. For example, the refrigeration business of Yunmanman, the "provincial and provincial" APP of the freight track in the same city, and the foreign investment in the after-vehicle e-commerce project "A, B, C, D", etc. These projects can be regarded as a full gang to broaden the moat around the company's core business, and can also be understood as a hedging of existing business risks. But either way, these new businesses need money to move forward. Interestingly, the full gang shareholders even invented a new concept: the full gang reduced their holdings to invest in vitro.

The question is, is the full gang short of money?

As of September 30, 2023, the cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investment, long-term investment and wealth management products held by the Full Gang were 27.4 billion yuan. What's more, the funds reduced by executives are personal wealth, which will only be put into their own pockets and will not be lent to the company for investment.

Therefore, the behavior of the Full Gang while repurchasing and reducing its holdings is more like "using the share repurchase plan to cooperate with the relevant shareholders to reduce their holdings", in this case, it is not difficult to understand the endless ups and downs of the full gang's stock price.

Of course, compared with the huge equity incentives in the past few years, the amount of reduction of the full gang executives this year (about 630 million yuan) is not large. According to the financial report, from 2019 to 2021, the equity incentive expenses confirmed by the Full Gang were 456 million yuan, 3.48 billion yuan, and 3.838 billion yuan respectively. This also means that the stock price of Full Bang will continue to be under pressure from insiders to reduce their holdings. The use of buybacks to cover the cash-out of executives may be difficult to provide confidence to investors in the secondary market.

In fact, it is very difficult for road freight to achieve successful operation, whether it is a traditional model or a digital brokerage platform. In July, the 99-year-old U.S. transportation giant Yellow announced its collapse, the largest in the history of the U.S. trucking industry, and in October, Convoy, a U.S. digital freight logistics company whose investors include Bezos and Bill Gates, shut down its core operations due to a "massive freight downturn."

U.S. road freight started earlier and more mature than China's road freight. In contrast, the Full Gang should be very fortunate to be able to get to this day, which includes both the support of local governments (tax refund policies), the tolerance of regulatory policies to the Internet platform economy, and the lack of protection of the legitimate interests of the driver group. However, with regulatory restrictions on the disorderly expansion of Internet platforms and emphasis on the protection of the rights and interests of vulnerable groups such as drivers, the existing business model of Full Truck will encounter major challenges.

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