【Daily Rating】Market differentiation intensified! Heavyweight stocks returned to consolidation, short-term themes continued to be active, and this stock won 9 consecutive boards
On January 2, the Financial Associated Press reported that the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index led the decline. The yellow and white time lines of the index diverged, and the theme stocks were active. On the disk, cyclical stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, among which coal stocks led the rise, Yunmei Energy, Anyuan Coal Industry rose by the limit; nuclear power stocks rose sharply at the opening, with more than 10 shares such as Jieqiang Equipment, Liberty, and Nanfang Road Machinery; shipping stocks were active again, and Ningbo Ocean and Xingtong shares were up and down. Tourism stocks moved intraday, and Changbai Mountain rose to the limit. In terms of decline, chip stocks fell into adjustment, and BIWIN Storage 20CM fell to the limit. Overall, individual stocks rose more and fell less, and 2,800 stocks in the whole market rose. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 787.8 billion, a decrease of 34.8 billion from the previous trading day.
Sector
On the plate, the direction of controllable nuclear fusion (nuclear power) has become a hot spot today, with individual stocks such as Liberty, Aerospace Chenguang, and Hailu Heavy Industry rising to the limit, and individual stocks such as Snowman Shares, Guoguang Electric, and Antai Technology leading the gains. On the news side, on December 29, the controllable nuclear fusion innovation consortium composed of 25 central enterprises, scientific research institutes, universities, etc. was officially announced. On December 29, after deliberation by the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China, it was decided to approve units 1 and 2 of the Jinqimen Nuclear Power Project and units 3 and 4 of the second phase of the Taipingling Nuclear Power Project.
In addition, affected by the earthquake in Japan, the concept of nuclear pollution prevention and control has been active again, with Jieqiang Equipment 20C daily limit, Aerospace Chenguang, Xilong Science, Zhongsheng Hi-Tech, CLP Environmental Protection, Zhengguang Shares, Antai Technology and other stocks among the top gainers. However, on the whole, the outbreak of the above two directions today is mainly catalyzed by the good news, and in fact, some stocks have moved in the intraday last week, and its continuity still needs to be further observed in the context of today's large-scale rise in sentiment.
The coal sector fluctuated higher, among which Yunmei Energy and Anyuan Coal Industry rose to the limit, and Xinji Energy, Huayang Shares, Pingmei Shares, and Huaibei Mining were among the top gainers. On the news side, according to the tariff rules of the "Import and Export Tariff of the People's Republic of China (2024)" issued by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, the import tariff on coal will be resumed from January 1, 2024. The ordinary tax rate is 20%, the preferential tax rate is 0, the treaty tax rate is basically 0, and the most-favored-nation tax rate is 3% for anthracite, coking coal and lignite, and 6% for other coal.
Guosheng Securities said in a recent research report that the core reason for the rise in the coal sector since late August last year is that "the bottom of coal prices in the off-season is much higher than market expectations, rather than the expectation of a surge in coal prices". Different from 2021~2022 (coal prices rose sharply→ profits of coal companies soared→ stock prices rose with performance), in 2023, under the background of the downward movement of coal prices and the general decline in the profits of coal companies, the performance of the coal sector is still outstanding, and high-dividend targets such as China Shenhua, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Hengyuan Coal Power have reached new highs. It means that the market has gradually realized the sustainability of high profits of coal enterprises, the stability of high dividends, and the outstanding enterprises in the high-dividend and resource industries, and have officially embarked on the road of slow cattle revaluation.
In addition, tourism stocks also moved in the afternoon, among which Changbai Mountain rose to the limit, Dalian Shengya, Sante Cableway, Emeishan A, and Zhongxin Tourism rose first. On the news side, today, Thai Prime Minister Saitha Thaman's prestige said that China and Thailand will permanently exempt each other's citizens from March. In addition, data disclosed by a number of online travel platforms shows that the number of domestic travel bookings during the New Year's Day holiday in 2024 will increase by more than 1 times year-on-year. Ctrip data shows that the number of domestic New Year's Eve travel orders increased by 168% year-on-year, and the number of outbound travel orders increased by 388% year-on-year.
In terms of individual stocks
From the perspective of individual stocks, the yellow and white lines of the two cities are clearly differentiated, although the three major indexes closed down across the board, but the direction of short-term theme stocks still maintains a high degree of activity. From the perspective of the height of the market, Yashi Optoelectronics has further expanded to 9 boards, and from the perspective of market width, the number of stocks in the two cities today is still as many as 15, and compared with high-level stocks, the probability of low-level stocks getting out of the premium is relatively higher. It is expected that the follow-up short-term theme direction may still be expected to appear imitation hype, focusing on the rebound opportunities in the popular sectors relative to the back stocks.
On the other hand, the current active funds are still more inclined to short-term theme speculation, which is not conducive to the continuation of the track weight, on the other hand, in the context of no fundamental improvement in the fundamentals, the market's confidence in the track weight is still insufficient, and the fund may still face the pressure of reducing holdings in combination with the rebound. However, as has been repeatedly emphasized before, a healthy rebound market is inseparable from the assistance of heavyweight stocks, so if the market can continue to be moderately amplified, the above two problems will be solved, and the short-term rebound structure of the market is still expected to continue. Once the weight track continues to shrink, the focus of the market will be on the short-term arbitrage opportunities within the hot theme.
Market outlook analysis
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.87%. Northbound funds sold a net of 5.269 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 1.119 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 4.151 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Today's three major indexes in the market were dragged down by heavyweights and pulled back across the board, but they still held above the 5-day moving average, and the structure of short-term shocks and higher has not been completely destroyed. At present, the pressure on the 30-day moving average is still relatively obvious, and if the short-term rebound wants to continue, it still needs to be effectively broken through in the form of a large-scale upward attack. On the contrary, if the adjustment continues tomorrow and the 5-day line effectively falls below again, then the overall structure is still viewed as a shock structure first.
Looking back on the recent market, from the sudden outbreak of the new energy track last Thursday, to the strength of technology stocks driven by consumer electronics last Friday, and then to the contrarian activity of cyclical stocks today, market funds have launched multiple styles, but there is a rapid rotation trend between hot spots. Once the follow-up volume can not increase but decrease, the capital game in the hot spot may be further intensified, and it is still the key to pay attention to the rhythm of rotation.
CITIC believes that the market's pessimistic expectations for RMB assets and China's economy in the early stage are expected to continue to repair, and A-shares are expected to welcome the spring market. In the future, we can focus on the following directions: 1) pro-cyclical: focus on cyclical products such as coal and non-ferrous metals and infrastructure sectors; 2) AI+: the certainty of the cycle of science and technology industry; 3) Electronics: AI cycle + recovery of traditional demand, and the certainty of the industrial cycle will rise; 4) Innovative drugs: benefit from the decline in U.S. bond interest rates and the catalyst of the new cycle of product strength in 24 years; 5) National defense and military industry: the triple bottom of valuation, performance growth and capital allocation.
Due to the obvious separation of yellow and white lines in the market today, short-term sentiment diverged from the index again, and the short-term sentiment indicator remained above the active zone throughout the day.
Market news focus
1. Most of the domestic commodity futures closed up the European line of the container transportation index and the alumina limit
On January 2, the Associated Press of Finance reported that most of the domestic commodity futures closed up, the European line of the container transportation index, up 20%, the alumina limit, up 8%, liquefied gas up more than 3%, ethylene glycol, iron ore, pulp, coking coal, coke, styrene rose more than 2%, asphalt, lithium carbonate, No. 20 rubber, fuel oil rose more than 1%, in terms of decline, rapeseed meal, soybean two fell more than 4%, soybean meal, vegetable oil fell more than 2%, methanol, soda ash, soybean oil, glass, bean one, eggs fell more than 1%.
2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: In 2024, all central enterprises should comply with the trend of intelligent transformation and accelerate the transformation of financial digital intelligence
On January 2, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a financial work conference for central enterprises. The meeting required that in 2024, the financial system of all central enterprises should thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference, conscientiously implement the requirements of the meeting of the heads of central enterprises, and adhere to the principle of seeking progress in stability and promoting stability with progress. Establish first and then break down, anchor the overall goal of building a world-class financial management and control system, grasp the law of value management, take the comprehensive budget as the guide, and vigorously promote the implementation of the development strategy to achieve results; strictly abide by the iron law of the true number of accounts, take the final account management as a mirror, and comprehensively consolidate the foundation of operation and management decision-making; dig deep into the potential of value creation, take quality and efficiency improvement as the main line, and focus on achieving steady growth in operating efficiency; conform to the trend of intelligent change, take the construction of treasury as the starting point, accelerate the transformation of financial digital intelligence; establish a solid risk bottom line thinking, take the control of increase and storage as the path, ensure that risks in key areas can be prevented and controlled, and enhance the core functions of central enterprises, improve core competitiveness, accelerate the realization of high-quality development and make greater contributions.
(Finance Associated Press, Fenglin)