With the frequent launch of new machines and the empowerment of AI, we are optimistic about the recovery of the consumer electronics boom
1. Hot events
Event: On the afternoon of December 26, 2023, Huawei held a winter new product launch conference to release the new Nova12 series of smartphones, including Nova12Ultra/12Pro/12/12 Vitality Edition, priced from 4699 yuan/3999 yuan/2999 yuan/2499 yuan.
2. Interpretation of hot spots
On the afternoon of December 26, 2023, Huawei held a winter new product launch conference to release the new Nova12 series smartphones. Previously, at noon on December 18, Huawei terminals announced that nova would join the pioneer program. nova is a mid-range flagship mobile phone brand under Huawei terminals, and its main selling point is fashion photography.
According to TechInsights data, global smartphone shipments in 2023Q3 were 296 million units, -0.3% year-on-year and +10% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline in shipments was significantly narrower than that in 2023Q2, and shipments have increased month-on-month, which may indicate that global smartphone shipments have bottomed out. As the release of new models by various terminal mobile phone manufacturers continues to catalyze, and a new round of replacement cycle is gradually opened, the smartphone market is expected to rebound in 2024. Canalys expects global smartphone and PC shipments to grow by 3.5% and 8% year-on-year in 2024, respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the growth potential of emerging markets, the improvement of the profitability of the PC and mobile phone supply chain, and the three major investment opportunities of folding screen mobile phones.
Scenarios such as folding screens are incremental innovations in the high-end demand for consumer electronics, which are expected to contribute to the growth of the industry. At present, major domestic mobile phone manufacturers are constantly optimizing the basic functions of folding screen hardware devices, and at the same time iteratively optimizing hinges, battery materials, screen materials and other links. According to Counterpoint Research, global shipments of foldable phones are expected to increase from 78.6 million units in 2026 to more than 100 million units in 2027. With the gradual consolidation of the hardware base of folding screen mobile phones, their user experience will continue to be optimized, and it is expected to become a new growth pole for smartphones. At the same time, driven by the rapid volume of folding screen mobile phones, major cover manufacturers have strengthened technology research and development, accelerated the large-scale production of UTG covers on the one-time molding route, and it is recommended to pay attention to the penetration of folding screens and the UTG industry chain.
New technologies such as AI are driving the update and iteration of consumer electronics products, which is expected to add momentum to the smartphone market. First of all, the AISoC hardware computing power foundation is constantly being consolidated, and Google, Qualcomm, MediaTek and other major SoC manufacturers around the world are actively launching chips with higher AI performance. At the same time, major mobile phone brand manufacturers at home and abroad have also added AI functions. Domestically, since 23Q3, smartphone giants, including Huawei, OPPO, Honor, and VIVO, have been actively promoting the implementation of AI mobile phone-related products and applications. Internationally, Samsung plans to fully introduce AI technology on the Galaxy S24, while Apple's iPhone 16, which will be released next year, is also expected to be its first AI phone. With the blessing of large models, smartphones equipped with AI functions are expected to inject fresh blood into the recovery of the industry. As the core port of AIGC landing, mobile phones are expected to set off the next round of "replacement tide" with the AI wave, and are optimistic about the development opportunities of AI mobile phones.
In addition, the recovery of the smartphone market may bring more investment opportunities to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, focusing on analog chips, SoCs, smart watches, etc. With the gradual destocking of downstream manufacturers such as AIoT and the drive of hardware innovation of smart terminals, SoC companies with a high proportion of downstream AIoT may benefit, and products such as smart watches and TWS earphones are expected to usher in a recovery driven by the popularity of smartphones.
Related Products:
1. Consumer Electronics ETF (159732) and its feeder fund (018300/018301)
The Consumer Electronics ETF tracks the CNI Consumer Electronics Theme Index (index code: 980030.CNI, index abbreviation: Consumer Electronics Index) and selects the top 50 securities in the average daily total market capitalization of listed companies in the consumer electronics sector in the company's business areas, including mobile phone industry chain, wearable smart devices, smart homes and other subdivisions as index samples, reflecting the market performance of high-quality listed companies in the consumer electronics industry of the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges.
2. Chip ETF (159995) and its feeder fund (008887/008888)
The chip ETF tracks the CNI Semiconductor Chip Index (980017.CNI, index abbreviation: CNI Chip) to reflect the market performance of listed companies related to the chip industry in the A-share market. As a representative index of the semiconductor chip industry, the CNI Semiconductor Chip Index can reflect the market opportunities in the industry.
Data source: Capital Securities, Guosheng Securities, Huafu Securities, Huaxin Securities, Wind, as of 2023.12.29, the risk level of this product is R4 (medium and high risk), the above funds belong to index funds, and there are major risks such as the deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the stock market, the fluctuation of the underlying index, and the deviation of the return of the fund portfolio from the return of the underlying index. and other specific risks such as the risk of deviation from the performance of the target ETF, and the historical performance of the market or the underlying product is not indicative of the future. Subscription: A fund will be charged a one-time subscription fee with no sales service fee when subscribing, while Class C will have no subscription fee but a sales service fee. There may be a big difference in the long-term performance of the two due to different fees and establishment times, etc., please refer to the product periodic report for details. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgment and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently bear the investment risk.
For ETF funds, investors investing in the Fund are exposed to potential risks such as tracking error control not reaching the agreed target, suspension of services by index compilers, suspension of trading of constituent bonds, the risk of deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the stock market, the risk of fluctuation of the underlying index, the risk of deviation between the return of the fund's portfolio and the return of the underlying index, the risk of change in the underlying index, the risk of discount and premium of the trading price of the fund shares in the secondary market, the risk of error in the subscription and redemption list, the risk of incorrect decision-making with reference to IOPV and the calculation of IOPV, Delisting risk, the risk of failure of investors' subscription and redemption, the risk of realizing the redemption consideration of fund shares, the risk of derivatives investment, etc.
For ETF feeder funds, the fund's assets are mainly invested in the target ETF, and in most cases a high proportion of target ETF investment will be maintained, and the net value of the fund may fluctuate with the net value of the target ETF, and the risks associated with the target ETF may directly or indirectly become the risks of the ETF feeder fund. The specific risks of ETF feeder funds also include: tracking deviation risk, risk of performance difference with the target ETF, risk of discontinuation of services by the index compiler, risk of change of the underlying index, risk of suspension or default of constituent bonds, etc.
This material is not intended as any legal document, the views are for reference only, all information or opinions expressed in the material do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final action advice on the content of the material. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. The market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.