Source: Li Gongzi
A few years ago, I started reading books related to financial management, because I often followed the leader to buy stocks and made some money, so I thought that this thing must also be obtained through Xi, so I decided to study it carefully.
In less than three months, I have read more than 30 financial management books, stocks, funds, digital currencies and other practical books, bestsellers in the financial industry, and the golden words of investment tycoons...... In the end, I found that I was getting farther and farther away from my goal of getting rich through financial management.
01 Raid to make short-term money
At the beginning, the Xi was an introduction, and I learned Xi the K-line chart of stocks, the basic theory, the regular investment of funds, the types of funds, and so on. Full of dry goods, it can be regarded as a formal introduction for a novice.
Because I practice first and then learn Xi, it can be regarded as a combination of learning Xi and practice, and my understanding of relevant theories is still okay, not just on paper.
The Xi of various basic financial management knowledge is quite smooth, and there are probably more than a dozen books.
For example, "A Book to Understand K-Line Charts" has an understanding of 18 kinds of K-lines, and knows what they mean by the red, red Xi, green and green K-line charts;
Although there are "masters" to guide them, they can actually make not much money, because after all, the other party has limited time, so it is basically to pay attention to the large buying and selling nodes, but this is enough, grasp the general trend, and invest in the long term.
At that time, I may still pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations, and did not realize the true meaning of long-term investment, so I did not sell when it rose to about the same level, and bought it when it did not fall about the same, and I didn't make much money.
02 Feasible in theory ≠ feasible in practice
Do you think that as long as you learn the K-line chart and master the method of regular investment, you can make money? No, after you practice, you will find that the market does not play cards according to the routine at all, and what you have learned is extremely useless.
"Volume and Price" says that "through the study of the golden ratio, the values reflected in the golden ratio are as follows: 0.191, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.809, 11.382, 1.5, 1.618, 2, 2.382, 2.618."
The use of the golden ratio in the stock market can help investors grasp the position of the stock price correction or rebound. Investors can take the starting point of a wave of rising or falling as the base point, so that when the stock market or individual stocks rise to a certain golden section value, such as 19% (based on the number of 0.191) and 38% (based on the number of 0.382), it will be subject to greater resistance, and the stock market or individual stocks at this time are prone to medium-term adjustment trends. On the contrary, when the stock market or individual stocks fall to a certain golden ratio value, it is prone to a rebound trend.
For example, if the stock price is 100 yuan at the beginning of a downward trend, then when the stock starts to fall, you can calculate in advance the position point of the stock price with a supporting effect 100x (1-19.1%) =81.9 (yuan), 100x (1-38.2%) =61.8 (yuan), 1x (1-61.8%) =38.2 (yuan)..... Subsequently, these prices can be used as a reference, and then combined with the actual operation of the stock market and individual stocks to carry out real operations. ”。
Inspired by long-term debt management, Dalio and his team deconstruct investment returns into three parts: cash returns (rc), excess returns from taking market risk (B), and returns from active management (a)
r=rC+B+a"。
The formulas are all given to you, according to the calculation, one set is fine.
Theoretically speaking, it can be operated in this way, I have heard of many great mathematicians and statisticians to speculate in stocks, but there are not many successes, if the theory is true, then they should all make a lot of money.
This is the difference between theory and practice in China's stock market, and the unexpected is always unexpected.
As Warren Buffett summed up his life's experience of investing to make money: "To invest successfully, as long as you can avoid making major mistakes as much as possible, investors only need to do very few right things to ensure a profit."
The secret of Warren Buffett's success can be summarized in two basic points: one is to achieve great success, and the other is to avoid big risks.
Only by achieving great success can you make a lot of money, but it is more important to avoid big risks. Many people started out with great success, but then failed to avoid the danger and died a miserable death. Only a few people live to the end, earn to the end, and laugh to the end. Investing is a long-distance race, and it's only at the end of the race that you really see it. The biggest risk is not the risk you think of, but the huge risk you never dreamed of. History shows that the greatest risk is often a 'black swan event.'"
This "black swan" is the biggest uncertainty, and many large companies often underestimate its influence when faced with some extremely unlikely events, and this is the time that may have a great impact on stock prices.
Dong's small essay incident, a passage from the editor caused a huge fluctuation in the company's stock price, and it was this action that involved the core point of the company, and these are unpredictable for shareholders.
This is what candlestick charts and mathematical formulas can teach you? Therefore, financial management is not something that you can make money after learning Xi solidly, of course, theory is the foundation, it is undeniable.
03Focus on value rather than formula
At this stage, I don't study these formulas and candlestick charts much, and focus on the essence of investing: value investing.
If you buy a company's stock because it has value, not because its current candlestick chart shows a good future, then can you know that it is not made?
LeTV rose well back then, and its continuous expansion seemed to be improving, but if you understand the mismatch between his expansion and strength, you know that there is a great risk of accidents.
China's housing supply is obviously already in excess of demand, the fertility rate of the younger generation is declining, assuming that a real estate company rises well now, do you think it will last long in the future?
And companies like new energy, electric vehicles, and AI are unstoppable trends in the future society, so such companies are destined to be invested in in the next few years, but you need to study which one to invest in.
The unstoppable development trend of the future is long-term and definite, and the specific way to develop is uncertain, and the long-term is what we can pay attention to.
At this point, I also understand that it is difficult to make money by financial management, even if I pay attention to the value and the long-term, there is still a high probability of failure, so instead of investing in financial management like a gambler, it is better to work hard, accumulate experience, and make money with knowledge, experience, and ability.