The A-share spring market may have been launched? What are the main lines of investment? The top ten brokerage strategies are coming

Finance Associated Press, January 1 (edited by Ruoyu Yihui) The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages have been released, as follows:

CITIC Securities: The market will usher in an important inflection point in January

It is expected that the economic policy will continue to increase in January, the New Year's Eve effect of various capital behaviors will be more obvious, investor confidence will begin to turn positive, and the market will usher in an important inflection point in January.

In terms of configuration, it is expected that products going overseas, independent science and technology, new consumption, and low dividend volatility will become the main directions, and in January, it is recommended to give priority to the super-falling growth represented by the science and technology innovation board. It is recommended to actively lay out the technology and pharmaceutical sectors that have fallen significantly in the early stage, including the AI industry (domestic computing power, AI chip design, application, etc.), intelligent driving (Huawei chain, domestic vehicles, etc.), terminal consumption warming (consumer electronics, Android chain recovery, data elements, operators), robotics and satellite Internet, etc.; In addition, the new energy sector can actively pay attention, and the white horse varieties such as consumption and Internet in Hong Kong stocks can also be laid out in advance and gradually participated.

Huaan Securities: Confidence is more important than gold, short allocation is stable, and long weight is certain

Looking ahead to January 2024, it is expected that the market will continue to show a volatile trend and continue to wait for positive factors to emerge. At present, the factors affecting the weak market momentum are still there: on the one hand, economic growth is showing a slow recovery trend, and the recovery has not yet accelerated, and on the other hand, the policy strength is still weaker than market expectations. However, there is no need to worry about the risk of significant adjustment in the market outlook: first, the global market is generally optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and second, in order to cooperate with credit supply and fiscal efforts at the beginning of the year, there is a strong certainty of abundant liquidity. The key opportunity for the subsequent reversal of investors' expectations lies in whether the policy implementation can exceed expectations.

In terms of industry allocation, first, it is necessary to consider that under the weak market upward momentum, there is still a need to allocate stable assets, and second, in the macro environment of weak economy and loose liquidity, the financial style is still expected to continue to switch direction in the short term, and it is also in line with the conditions for growth interpretation. The first allocation idea is that stable assets and financial styles continue to switch. Assets with high dividend yields such as coal, utilities (water conservancy) are more favored, the automobile and parts industry has been adjusted to a more suitable position, and the financial industries such as banking and insurance have shown signs of switching; the second idea is to continue to adhere to the direction of medium and long-term certainty, and electronics and communications are more cost-effective and medium- and long-term certainty.

China Securities Construction Investment: Facing the spring market is an opportunity if it is adjusted

We believe that the pessimistic expectations of the market for RMB assets and China's economy in the early stage are expected to continue to repair, and A-shares are expected to meet the spring market, and if there is a short-term adjustment, it is an opportunity to get on the bus.

It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) pro-cyclical: pay attention to cyclical products such as coal and non-ferrous metals and infrastructure sectors, 2) AI+: the cycle of science and technology industry is deterministic upward, 3) electronics: AI cycle + traditional demand recovery, industrial cycle certainty upward, 4) innovative drugs: benefit from the decline in U.S. bond interest rates and the catalyst of the new cycle of product power in 24 years, 5) national defense and military industry: the triple bottom of valuation, performance growth and capital allocation.

Guojin Securities: AI+ military industry, especially consumer electronics, welcomes the New Year's "restlessness"

In the past one month, the market has adjusted, standing at the current year-end and New Year points, we believe that we can still expect a "spring restless" market in January next year. Specifically, on the one hand, the short-term domestic fundamentals or marginal slowdown, but to a limited extent, are difficult to drag down the performance of A-shares. On the other hand, it is expected that "easy money" may run through at least 2024H1, and the probability of its launch at the beginning of the year is also high.

"Spring Restlessness" may have begun, and small and medium-sized caps, themes, and growth will be the main lines of style. In January, the industry configuration suggested that AI+ military industry, especially consumer electronics, welcome the New Year's "restlessness", mainly based on the fact that first, electronics and military industry have the trend logic of continuous increase in the proportion of profits; second, from the perspective of the AI industry, the application side is still within 10% penetration rate next year, and the market focus is on the fundamentals or the industry direction that takes the lead in building the bottom, so it is screened out in TMT: electronics; third, it is optimistic about consumer electronics with a relatively "clean" capital chip structure. In addition, during the turbulent market, computers and media with thematic investment logic, as well as brokerages that benefit from the expectation of improved liquidity, are also worth paying attention to.

Cinda Securities: Long-term logic is more important than high-frequency data

Liquidity improved at the beginning of the year, a second reversal attempt is underway, and there may be a new reversal in March (policy or property sales). In the past quarter, the stock market policy and economic policy have been gradually improving, but the stock market is still weak, we believe that there are two main reasons, one is that investors are confused about the long-term economic growth prospects, resulting in short-term bullishness has not been able to generate profits on the market, and the second reason is that some absolute return investors (private equity and foreign capital) are facing greater net worth pressure, in order to control volatility, dare not increase their positions, and even need to reduce their positions.

Industry allocation suggestions: At the end of the year, there may be a quarterly counterattack on the old track that is over-falling, and the annual allocation order in 2024: upstream cycle> AI, automobile, automobile, zero> financial real estate, > old track (pharmaceutical, semiconductor, new energy) > consumption.

Minsheng Securities: Bottoming out and market conversion

The rally in the last week of 2023 is coming as expected, but it is even more important to see the drivers of the continued rally ahead: physical demand from the resumption of global manufacturing activity will be at the heart of market pricing. The bottom of the broad market style has emerged, while the underlying physical consumable (resource) assets in the economy are still the most scarce.

In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to first, benefiting from the recovery of midstream manufacturing flow at the production end and the value revaluation of upstream resource industries with supply bottlenecks at the same time, and recommend copper, oil, coal, aluminum, oil transportation, and gold. Second, benefiting from the relaxation of overseas financial conditions and the recovery of production and external demand with low inventories: machinery and equipment, transportation equipment (heavy trucks, ships, etc.), power equipment and new energy. Third, the rebound of the CSI 300 continues to be worth looking forward to, and the broader market style has stabilized, but the value of the broader market is more cost-effective (banking, insurance, real estate).

Haitong Securities: The spring market may have been launched

The current market background and capital are similar to the beginning of 19 years, drawing on history, the market is often a sign of the start of the market. The first quarter is usually a period of intensive introduction of domestic policies, and overseas liquidity also tends to be loose, which is expected to jointly catalyze the spring market of A-shares. We believe that a series of important meetings, including the Central Economic Work Conference, have released a signal of steady growth, combined with the current market trend and sentiment have improved significantly, and this round of spring market may be gradually unfolding.

In terms of industry allocation, the earnings of listed companies in 24 years have entered an upward period, and the growth of Baima is expected to be better, such as hard technology such as electronics and medicine, and there may be phased opportunities in finance.

GF Securities: The bottom is consolidated and continues to attack growth and recovery

In 23 years, we proposed a new investment paradigm for A-shares: the interest rate of US bonds is higher for longer, and the interest rate of Chinese bonds is lower for longer. In the long run, the "barbell strategy" has become an anti-fragile investment strategy to deal with uncertainty. Positioned in 24 years as the new paradigm review period of "the interest rate gap between China and the United States continues to converge, and the gap between China and the United States ERP picks up", the convergence of the "loose expectation gap" continues, and the strategic allocation value of growth stocks is expected to be higher in terms of style, and it is recommended to observe the marginal improvement of demand along the three "supply side" clues.

In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to first, the growth and recovery varieties of supply clearance + marginal demand recovery (consumer electronics chain, semiconductor design, innovative drugs, robots); second, China's superior manufacturing + the United States is expected to replenish the inventory to boost external demand (textiles, chemical raw materials, electronic components); third, a new round of "pan-AI + Huawei" technology supply to create demand (intelligent driving, XR, radio frequency, satellite communications).

Zhongtai Securities: The plan of the year lies in the spring

We still believe that spring is an important time window for the interpretation of the capital market next year: 1) before the Fed officially cut interest rates, the market's repeated expectations of rapid interest rate cuts drove down U.S. bond yields and the rise in the prices of most global assets; 2) the beginning of the year is generally dominated by thematic markets; 3) domestic industrial policies and central fiscal development periods; therefore, we reiterate that "the theme is king in the spring market".

Looking ahead to 2024, the dividend style is expected to maintain its advantage. And with the advancement of the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, the market-oriented pricing of public utilities has accelerated, bringing about the improvement of endogenous profitability of the industry, and accelerating the listing of state-owned assets and the rate of asset securitization will become the focus of local policies next year.

Industrial Securities: The rhythm and direction of the New Year's Eve market

First of all, the interest rate on certificates of deposit has fallen sharply recently, and the realization of liquidity easing has accelerated. Secondly, the domestic policy side has been accelerated recently, and various policy easing measures have been gradually implemented. In addition, overseas, global risk appetite has been restored as U.S. bond interest rates have fallen significantly and exchange rate pressures have eased. Finally, since mid-to-late December 2023, we have seen the gradual return of foreign capital, the acceleration of ETFs to support the market, and the signal of incremental funds entering the market has emerged. The follow-up positive feedback of funds is expected to become an important support for the spring market.

It is recommended to pay attention to the subdivision direction where the prosperity is at a high level and the margin is improving. On the one hand, we will focus on the recovery opportunities of value sectors such as manufacturing (shipbuilding, charging piles), cycle (precious metals), and consumption (textiles and apparel, tourism and scenic spots, textile manufacturing) with improved fundamentals, and on the other hand, we will continue to grasp the direction of high economic growth, including semiconductors (packaging and testing, equipment), memory, virtual reality, financial IT, satellite communications, etc.

(Finance Associated Press, Ruoyu Yihui)